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We’re approaching the halfway point of the NHL season when the contenders begin to separate from the pretenders and teams start looking for roster upgrades.
This year is no different, with the 2023 free agent class featuring a positively stacked group of potential rentals for GMs to acquire at the trade deadline.
Let’s take a look at the five biggest names set to hit the open market this summer and see where they could go in the coming months.
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1. David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins
Age: 26
2022-23 Stat Line: 31 GP, 21 goals, 22 assists, 43 points, 19:55 TOI
Cap Hit: $6,666,667
It’s hard to picture David Pastrnak anywhere other than Boston. The Bruins are such a tight-knit organization, and Pastrnak is such a staple of the consistency and success they’ve built throughout his tenure, that envisioning him leaving town doesn’t seem likely.
The fact that the two sides haven’t already agreed on an extension, though, is more than a little odd and possibly opens the door for Pastrnak to hit the open market in July.
And if he does… get ready.
There’s a good chance that Pastrnak becomes the best free agent in the salary cap era if he tests the waters. This is a 26-year-old offensive dynamo in the prime of his career – an unstoppable weapon who scored at a 40-goal pace or higher since 2016-17, flirted with 50 goals not too long ago and can make opponents pay regardless of the situation.
No one of Pastrnak’s offensive caliber has ever hit free agency so early in their career, making it entirely possible that he comes close to Nathan MacKinnon’s newly precedent-setting cap hit of $12.6 million.
It’s tough to even project who could be in the market for Pastrnak, either. So many teams around the league are spending either close to or above the cap ceiling these days, which would theoretically limit his suitors. But when faced with the opportunity to acquire David friggin’ Pastrnak, most NHL GMs will move heaven and earth to make room.
If your favorite team is not in on Pastrnak if he becomes available, you should be upset.
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2. Bo Horvat, Vancouver Canucks
Age: 27
2022-23 Stat Line: 31 GP, 22 goals, 9 assists, 31 points, 20:55 TOI
Cap Hit: $5.5 million
Bo Horvat is going to get paid this summer. Like, a lot. THN’s own Ryan Kennedy even theorized that he could approach the contract John Tavares signed with the Maple Leafs back in 2018, which came out to an $11-million AAV over seven years. Frankly, it’s not the craziest idea.
If Horvat continues at his current scoring pace and actually scores 50 goals this season, he’ll be hitting the open market as a 28-year-old defensively-responsible center who plays in all situations, logs over 20 minutes per night, and, as captain, managed to keep a lid on one of the league’s most reportedly toxic locker rooms.
He’s not a perfect player, by any stretch – few are. But Horvat’s contract-year offensive surge isn’t quite as dramatic when you realize he’s coming off three straight seasons during which he scored at or around a 30-goal pace.
Every team needs a borderline top-line center. Horvat will likely be one of the few that makes it to market, and you better believe teams such as (ironically) the Devils, Bruins, Sabers and even Avalanche will be lining up to make him a pitch – or even trade for him this season. to get a head start.
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3. Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks
Age: 34
2022-23 Stat Line: 31 GP, 4 goals, 18 assists, 22 points, 20:13 TOI
Cap Hit: $10.5 million
Free this man, please. Let Patrick Kane play meaningful hockey again.
The Blackhawks are on the precipice of a historical level of futility, heading into the holiday break with less than 20 points on the year, which currently has them dead-last in the NHL standings.
This is by design, of course. The main goal for GM Kyle Davidson and his staff is to ensure Connor Bedard leaves the 2023 NHL draft in a Blackhawks jersey – an outcome that requires a metric ton of losing from here on out just to be even remotely possible.
Sure, the Blackhawks are doing a pretty good job of losing games as they’re currently constructed. But imagine just how deep this team can sink without Kane on its roster. Who can’t get excited about that?
Kane needs to be moved. Preferably right this second, so Chicago can maximize its asset haul thanks to the extra 15 to 20 games they’ll be tacking on to Kane as a rental, but any time between now and the March 3 trade deadline will do.
Is Kane having his best season right now? No, of course not. It’s pretty difficult to rack up career numbers when your linemates are deckchairs on the Titanic. But even in an off-year, the 34-year-old has 22 points in 30 games. Kane’s still got it. Someone just needs to let him cook.
That someone has been theorized to be the New York Rangers for quite some time. And, frankly, it makes sense, given New York’s contention window and need for a top-six winger. But the real contender for Kane’s services should actually be Buffalo, his hometown, which has an intriguing young core, over $16 million in cap space and a treasure chest of draft capital and prospects to make it happen.
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4. Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks
Age: 34
2022-23 Stat Line: 30 GP, 10 goals, 7 assists, 17 points, 17:43 TOI
Cap Hit: $10.5 million
Like Kane, Jonathan Toews must be given freedom. He may not be the all-world player he was in his heyday, but Toews is still good enough to help his team win games, something the Blackhawks actively do not want to do, and should therefore be dealt away for as many futures as possible. .
What does that asking price look like? It’s a good question.
Toews has certainly slowed down in his old age and is coming off one of the least productive seasons of his career in 2021-22 when he finished with just 12 goals and 37 points in 71 games. This season, however, has featured a slight resurgence, with Toews having racked up 10 goals and 17 points in 29 games for the moribund Hawks while beginning the bulk of his shifts in the defensive zone.
Of course, Toews’ $10.5-million cap hit makes any trade roughly a thousand times more difficult, but GMs have found creative ways around the cap before. Heading to his hometown of Winnipeg for the stretch drive makes a lot of sense, with the surprisingly competent Jets needing a middle-six center to solidify their playoff hopes.
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5. Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis Blues
Age: 31
2022-23 Stat Line: 33 GP, 9 goals, 6 assists, 15 points, 18:12 TOI
Cap Hit: $7.5 million
The Blues are in the unfavorable position of being not quite bad enough to be a lottery contender at the moment but not good enough to go on a Cup run either, trapping them in hockey purgatory. No matter which way they go, whether that means selling off their aging assets for a spot in the Bedard sweepstakes or swinging big at the deadline for a playoff push, changes are coming.
Most would argue for the best move being the former. And if the Blues do intend to hold a fire sale, Ryan O’Reilly will be the belle of the ball.
O’Reilly certainly isn’t having his best season in 2022-23, coming up on the holiday break with just nine goals and six assists for 15 points in 33 games. But no one on the Blues has been playing particularly well lately, and O’Reilly still puts up upper-tier defensive numbers while logging 18 minutes in nightly ice time and taking on the hardest matchups the game can offer.
Not to mention, he’s only 31 – which doesn’t make him a spring chicken by hockey standards but certainly isn’t as old as some would otherwise think him to be.
There’s a massive group of contenders out there who would trip over themselves to add a player like O’Reilly to their roster ahead of the playoffs. One team that has reportedly discussed doing just that internally is the Maple Leafs, who happen to reside in O’Reilly’s hometown and have a clear need for a top-six forward.
Some extreme cap gymnastics would be required to pull it off, perhaps even involving a third team through which GM Kyle Dubas can launder part of O’Reilly’s salary. But drastic times call for drastic measures. And if the Maple Leafs want to significantly improve their odds of making it past the first round and therefore saving the jobs of their entire management and coaching staff, O’Reilly would be a great place to start.
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