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We’re approaching the halfway point of the NHL season when the contenders begin to separate from the pretenders and teams start looking for roster upgrades.
This year is no different, with the 2023 restricted free agent class featuring a positively stacked group of potential young stars and intriguing trade chips for GMs to salivate over at the trade deadline and beyond.
So, let’s take a look at the five biggest names set to hit the RFA market this summer and see where they could go in the coming months.
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5. Trevor Zegras, Anaheim Ducks
Age: 21
2022-23 Stat Line: 35 GP, 10 goals, 15 assists, 25 points, 19:46 TOI
They grow up so fast, don’t they?
It seems like yesterday that Trevor Zegras was a plucky rookie embarrassing some of the top talents in the sport with moves that you and I don’t even dare to try in shinny. Now, the 21-year-old is in the midst of his third big-league season in 2022-23, has arguably developed into the face of his entire franchise (and the NHL video game series) and will take his first dip into the restricted free-agent pool this summer.
This guy is going to get paid big-time. That goes without saying. But if the Ducks are smart, they’ll do it as soon as humanly possible before Zegras hits his peak.
Because, well, he’s not quite there yet. The Ducks are one of the worst teams in the entire NHL, and Zegras is practically their only watchable component, putting up decent-but-not-quite-elite numbers on a nightly basis as he attempts to drag a bunch of washed-up veterans and borderline AHLers to the finish line.
That won’t be the case forever, though.
The Ducks have one of the deepest prospect pools in the NHL these days, which could get even deeper in the coming months, depending on who they sell off at the trade deadline. Not too far in the future, those prospects will start reaching their potential. And when that happens, Zegras’ supporting cast is bound to get a serious upgrade, which will coincide with his stat line getting an equally serious boost, too.
Suddenly, Zegras will have the numbers and leverage to demand a paycheck in line with some of the best players in his position. And if the Ducks want to keep him, they’ll give it to him.
Pay him now, perhaps something in the realm of the Jack Hughes deal, which came in at roughly the same point in Hughes’ career and totaled an $8-million cap hit over eight years, and Zegras will look like a bargain in a year or so. two when he’s expectedly reaching the heights his skills foretell.
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4. Pierre-Luc Dubois, Winnipeg Jets
Age: 24
2022-23 Stat Line: 35 GP, 16 goals, 22 assists, 38 points, 18:17 TOI
Credit where credit’s due: Pierre Luc-Dubois is playing well enough to improve his value in whatever trade allows him to evacuate himself from the organization he landed with after evacuating himself previously from the organization that drafted him.
Last time, Dubois simply stopped trying to force the Blue Jackets’ hand. These days, however, he’s scoring at over a point-per-game pace and looking every bit like the skill-infused power forward everyone thought him to be.
That’s great. It means the Jets, at the very least, won’t get bent over a barrel this summer when they inevitably send Dubois to his hometown Montreal Canadiens.
Everything is going right for Dubois this season. The 24-year-old is logging nearly the highest average ice time of his career, flirting with a 40-goal pace and winning faceoffs at a better clip than ever. At the same time, his defensive metrics remain serviceable enough to make him a positive value at both ends of the ice.
Dubois has done everything the Jets have asked him to do this season, and it shows. Winnipeg has taken some moribund pre-season expectations and turned them into a cozy second-place spot in their division as the calendar shifts to the new year.
It shows what a healthy and engaged Dubois can really do for a team. GMs, take note. And with the former top-three pick only now entering his prime, this fella’s asking price could be astronomical when it comes to a new deal.
It just depends on when that deal comes.
Any team prepared to empty their entire cupboard of prospects and draft capital for Dubois this summer will undoubtedly want an extension included as part of the deal. We saw it with Matthew Tkachuk and the Florida Panthers just a few months ago, so an NHL sign-and-trade now has precedent. But Dubois could go the other way, taking his qualifying offer again this summer before cashing in on the UFA market next year when all 32 teams can bid on his services.
It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. But there’s almost no scenario in which Dubois doesn’t emerge as a very, very rich man.
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3. Jesper Bratt, New Jersey Devils
Age: 24
2022-23 Stat Line: 34 GP, 12 goals, 21 assists, 33 points, 17:32 TOI
Bratt has only continued to prove himself as one of the best wingers in the NHL this season. He will undoubtedly be seeking compensation that reflects that when the time comes this summer.
Bratt is basically the cautionary tale of what could happen if the Ducks wait to pay Zegras. After years of very solid production on a bad team, Bratt has since blossomed as a driving force of the drastically improved Devils in 2022-23, showing everyone precisely what he’s capable of when given high-end talent to work with.
The Devils, who quizzically have been unable to hammer out an extension with Bratt for years now and were even dangling him in trade talks heading into the draft, have now missed their opportunity to lock their young star up to a cost-controlled extension. Instead, they’ll be forced to pay up or deal him this time. And given that Bratt is basically money-in-the-bank for an annual point-per-game output despite not yet celebrating his 25th birthday, that price tag won’t be cheap.
Thankfully for the Devils, New Jersey has a ton of cash coming off the books this summer that will inevitably open up the funds to meet Bratt’s demands. Problem solved! But it’s hard not to think the club missed a prime opportunity to lock him down in the past, which has since negated any possibility of a hometown discount.
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2. Timo Meier, San Jose Sharks
Age: 26
2022-23 Stat Line: 36 GP, 20 goals, 16 assists, 36 points, 20:00 TOI
I’ve been on the “Trade Timo Meier” train for a while now – especially given how badly new Sharks GM Mike Grier wants to kickstart a rebuild the club so sorely needs. And do you know what could really help with that? The absurd treasure trove of assets the Sharks could get by dealing Meier to a contender at the deadline.
It’s not even New Year’s yet, and the guy already has 20 goals. He’s 26, logs 20 minutes a night and will still have his RFA status upon expiry this summer, giving whichever team gets him first dibs on his next contract.
In trade value terms, Meier is the belle of the ball.
It just makes sense, really. Meier is in the prime of his career and deserves a shot to win actual hockey games on a team capable of, well, winning hockey games. It’s good for the sport. On the flip side, the Sharks can take the haul of first-round picks and blue-chip prospects they got for an asset that would have lessened their odds of selecting Connor Bedard and invest them in the future.
It doesn’t get more win-win than that. If Meier is still a Shark by June, someone made a mistake.
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1. Alex DeBrincat, Ottawa Senators
Age: 25
2022-23 Stat Line: 34 GP, 11 goals, 22 assists, 33 points, 19:34 TOI
The guy has two 40-goal seasons under his belt at 25 years old and is still churning out a point-per-game pace on a Senators team that sits near the bottom of the league standings.
At some point, someone will let Alex DeBrincat play meaningful hockey. And, depending on where his loyalties lie, that someone might end up being DeBrincat himself.
Despite the Senators’ relatively disappointing season so far, considering they haven’t taken a big step up in the standings from last year, DeBrincat’s stock has not dropped. He’s still a top-tier offensive winger who produces borderline elite numbers regardless of his situation and who might very well have 50-goal potential if supported correctly.
That, plus his age, makes DeBrincat still one of the shiniest assets in the league. And luckily for him, his massive $9-million qualifying offer this summer affords him a ton of leverage for his future despite being an RFA, given the Senators likely won’t want to pay him such a massive sum for a one-year deal.
That means DeBrincat can use that trump card to get a long-term extension with cost certainty on a Senators team trying to exit a rebuild – Kevin Weekes said in October that Ottawa was actively trying to sign DeBrincat to an extension, after all. Or, the 5-foot-8 right winger could threaten to take his QO and force the Sens to trade him elsewhere.
Either way, DeBrincat is in the driver’s seat. And if he keeps playing as well as he has, even if his current goal totals aren’t quite as lofty as previous years, that level of control will only go up.
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