One of the most anticipated matchups of Wild Card weekend, Chargers at Jaguars features two of the NFL’s rising star quarterbacks – Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. The spread at FanDuel Sportsbook is currently less than a field goal, implying that we may get the exciting tight affair that all neutral football fans are hoping to see. The Chargers have dealt with countless injuries this season but have been playing some of their best football of late, despite falling to the Broncos in a largely meaningless matchup last time out. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is riding high from a memorable comeback win over Tennessee that allowed them to clinch their first AFC South title in five years.
Our experts have dug deep to analyze all aspects of the Saturday night showdown and provide Chargers vs. Jaguars predictions for you all, so let’s take a look at those alongside the odds at FanDuel.
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LA Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2023 NFL Playoffs betting preview
It’s hard not to like the Jaguars, especially after their performance against the Titans a week ago. Jacksonville is a talented and well-coached team and may have gotten some of its playoff-like jitters out in the must-win game against Tennessee. The key question, though, is if the Jaguars have already peaked and are due for a bit of regression on the real playoff stage.
Trevor Lawrence has been performing at a high level over the last nine weeks, with one of the best touchdown-to-interception ratios in the NFL over that span. On the other side of the ball, many analysts view the Jaguars’ pass rush as the best unit on the field in most matchups. Having said that, they have also gone up against multiple below-average quarterbacks during their second-half run. Herbert is certainly above average, with the pocket awareness and mobility to at least partially neutralize their pressure.
The Chargers offense has been revived with a healthy Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at wide receiver, but news broke on Friday that Williams will not be available for Los Angeles on Saturday after injuring his back in the meaningless Week 18 game against Denver. Even without a key big-play target like Williams, the Chargers will be facing one of the worst pass defenses in the league according to DVOA, making it an appealing matchup for Herbert and company.
The Jaguars are mainly a pass-funnel defense, which should also help Austin Ekeler’s production out of the backfield, both rushing and in the passing game. The Jags also allow the fourth-most plays in football, meaning that Los Angeles’ offense may see success moving the ball and maintaining possession.
Bosa’s return will certainly bolster a Chargers defensive front that should excel against a subpar Jaguars line. Even if Lawrence gets the ball out quickly and operates efficiently, we don’t foresee many explosive plays from Jacksonville in this one.
Chargers vs. Jaguars prediction: LA gets past Jacksonville
In one of the most fascinating matchups of Super Wild Card weekend, it’s easy to focus on superstar quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. But as mentioned in the analysis above, it may be other key position groups that play the biggest role in Saturday’s night’s clash.
With Bosa back but Williams now ruled out, the spread has interestingly continued to move in the Chargers’ favor. After opening around a pick ’em (spread = 0), the line is now up to Chargers -2.5 at FanDuel. Of course, no key numbers (like 3 and 7) have been crossed with that move, but there’s likely some smart money coming in on LA to continue to push the line in their direction. Our experts agree with this line move, so their Chargers vs. Jaguars prediction is that the Chargers will earn a win on Saturday night by a field goal or more.
Our expert pick for Chargers vs. Jags: LAC -2.5 (-106) at FanDuel
The Chargers appear to be a bit undervalued in the market, while the Jags may be overvalued after last week’s signature win in primetime. Many are enamored by the Jags, but their deficiencies have at least partially been masked by the low-quality opponents that they have gone up against recently. They have won 5 straight, but the last three quarterbacks faced were Josh Dobbs, Davis Mills and Zach Wilson. The Jacksonville pass defense looks decent, ranking 17th in EPA per drop back, but they’ve done it against the second-easiest schedule of opponent pass offenses this season.
The Jags also let up the 8th-highest yards after catch per reception and held the 8th-highest missed tackle percentage. Those stats are worrying on their own, but when you consider how easy their schedule has been, it’s even more concerning.
Therefore, we’re siding with the Chargers on Saturday night, and the current -2.5 line at FanDuel is still appetizing enough at less than a field goal to make it our experts’ top pick.
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Chargers vs. Jags betting odds and latest lines
There are countless options when it comes to Chargers vs. Jags betting odds at FanDuel. First, a look at the standard game lines for Saturday’s matchup.
Spread: LAC -2.5 / JAX +2.5
Money Line: LAC -138 / JAX +118
Total: Over/Under 47.5 points
All of these Chargers vs. Jags betting odds and latest lines are available now for you at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is also offering a great promotion where new bettors can claim $150 in bonus bets after depositing $10+ and placing a wager of $5 or more.
FanDuel also has many player props for this game. Here’s a look at the prop lines for some of the big-name players in the Chargers vs. Jags matchup:
Justin Herbert: Over/Under 245.5 passing yards
Trevor Lawrence: Over/Under 279.5 passing yards
Austin Ekeler: Over/Under 50.5 rushing yards
Travis Etienne: Over/Under 78.5 rushing yards
Keenan Allen: Over/Under 81.5 receiving yards
Christian Kirk: Over/Under 57.5 receiving yards
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