The St. Louis Cardinals take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our MLB odds series for our Cardinals Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Jose Quintana gets the ball for the Cardinals, while Merrill Kelly goes to the hill for the Diamondbacks.
Jose Quintana was acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates at the trade deadline. It was not a splashy pickup for the Redbirds, but the team did need some starting arms for the remainder of the season. Quintana has delivered the goods. In three post-deadline starts for the Cardinals, Quintana has pitched to a 2.65 ERA: 17 innings, five earned runs allowed, no more than two earned runs allowed in any of those three starts. If this is the guy the Cardinals will continue to get over the next six weeks, St. Louis will very likely reach the postseason. Quintana and Jordan Montgomery have both given this team and this starting rotation a significant boost in the month of August. You can see how well the Cardinals are playing. This is a big piece of the puzzle.
Merrill Kelly has been terrific for the D-Backs this season. In the month of May, for whatever reason, things just didn’t click. Kelly registered a 6.31 ERA in that particular month. When you realize that his ERA for the year is 2.81 in spite of that one really bad month, a larger reality emerges: Kelly, in every non-May month of 2022, has pitched at a level comparable to Sandy Alcantara — no, not the same amount of innings (which is where Alcantara separates himself from every other MLB pitcher this season), but similar quality. The ERA is close to two runs in April, June, July, and August combined. Kelly pitched to an ERA of under 1.35 in two of those four months. His August ERA, based on three starts, is 2.37. He is coming off a seven-inning masterpiece against the Giants in which he allowed no runs on only four hits. Kelly has been one of the big breakout stars of the 2022 season. The Diamondbacks have a ton of problems, but he isn’t one of them.
Courtesy of FanDuelhere are the Cardinals-Diamondbacks MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Cardinals-Diamondbacks Odds
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+120)
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (-144)
Over: 7.5 (-115)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
Why The Cardinals Could Cover the Spread
The Cardinals are riding the wave right now. They’re getting contributions from everyone. They didn’t have Yadier Molina in their lineup on Saturday in Phoenix, and they scored 16 runs to offset a bad night from the pitching staff. Albert Pujols’ home-run binge is electrifying the city of St. Louis and lighting up the clubhouse. The mood is great. The team is playing great. Someone steps up every day. It’s that kind of a reality for the high-flying Birdos, who continue to increase their lead over the Brewers in the National League Central and are on one of their very familiar late-season runs. It’s hard to bet against “Cardinal Devil Magic,” and it’s also hard to bet against Jose Quintana, given the way he is pitching.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
After losing the first two games of this series over the weekend in Phoenix, the D-Backs sent their best starter to the mound. Zac Gallen is really good, but Merrill Kelly is the best the Diamondbacks can offer. He can stop the hot-hitting Cardinals in their tracks. More than that, the absence of Yadi Molina in this game might actually have an effect. The Cardinals are not going to score runs (and thereby offset the loss of Molina’s defense and game management) against Kelly.
Final Cardinals-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
This is a stay-away game given how even the pitching matchup is, plus the Yadier Molina absence (for personal reasons, not COVID or anything related to public health and safety). If you insist on a pick, go with Merrill Kelly and Arizona.
Final Cardinals-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks +1.5
