The fourth and final matchup between the Bulls and Celtics of the season tips off Monday night at TD Garden.
Chicago leads the series, 2–1, and the home team has won each game between these teams. Accordingly, Boston is favored at TD Garden, where it owns a 15-5 record. The Bulls head to Massachusetts winners of three in a row, including victories last week against the Nets and 76ers, two of the top teams in the conference. The Celtics return home after closing out their road trip over the weekend on a two-game winning streak, one of which came versus the Mavericks.
DeMar DeRozan and Jayson Tatum led their respective teams in scoring in each matchup so far. DeRozan outscored Tatum, 46-36, last time they played in Boston, but the C’s still came out on top, 123-119.
Marcus Smart (knee) is listed as doubtful for the contest and Alex Caruso (ankle) is questionable, so both sides could be missing a key perimeter defender.
Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics Odds
Time: 7:30 pm ET | NBA TV
Spread: Bulls +8.5 (-110) | Celtics -8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: CHI (+275) | BOS (-310)
Total: 237.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Bulls Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 19–21
Against The Spread Record: 20–18–2
Over/Under Record: 20-20
Points Per Game (Rank): 115.1 (12)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 115.5 (19)
Celtics Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 28–12
Against The Spread Record: 22-18
Over/Under Record: 20–18–2
Points Per Game (Rank): 118.8 (1)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 113.0 (13)
Spread Bet: Celtics -8.5 (-110)
The Bulls have covered in all three games against the Celtics and Monday’s spread will be the largest of the series. Boston is 12-8 against the spread on its home floor and recently flexed its defensive chops against the Mavericks on the road in a 124-95 blowout where it limited the league’s top scorer, Luka Doncicto 23 points.
Chicago has scored at least 120 in each matchup so far and the Celtics’ defense is not what it was a season ago. Over the last 15 games, however, they rank No. 3 in defensive rating, while their offense has struggled. As long as Joe Mazulla’s defense can keep the Bulls’ top scorers in check, an offense led by Tatum and Jaylen Brown can score the requisite points needed to cover.
Boston underperformed offensively against Chicago, failing to break 120 points across three meetings, in large part due to some off shooting nights. The Bulls rank 22nd in opponent field goal percentage and 29th in opponent three-point percentage. The C’s will regress to the mean after some poor performances and draw even in the season series with a convincing win.
Over/Under Bet: Under 237.5 (-110)
Only 13 Celtics’ games this season have had point totals set at 230 points or higher. The under is 9–3–1 in such scenarios and this total ties the second-highest over/under of the season for Boston, the league’s highest-scoring offense. Bulls’ games with totals set this high hit the over a bit more often and one actually did the last time they took the court against the Jazz. The total was set at a whopping 239.5 and the teams combined for 244 points.
Given the C’s struggles to score, specifically in this matchup, and their revamped defensive efforts, taking the over on such a high total feels foolish. The previous high total for these two teams this season was set at 230 and the under hit, as it has in two of three Chicago-Boston games this year.
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Prop Bet: Nikola Vucevic Over 10.5 Rebounds (-133)
Nikola Vucevic‘s rebounding numbers are encouraging on all fronts against Boston for his prop total. He’s coming down with at least 12 boards in each matchup and he hauled in a season-best 23 rebounds in the first meeting. He’s also totaled at least 13 rebounds in each of his last five games as his minutes are up as well.
The C’s, whose leading rebounder is Tatum, are about league average on the glass, so he doesn’t need to worry about too much competition from fellow big men for boards. And besides, Vucevic’s season average is 10.8. He just has to go a hair above his usual performance against an opponent he’s performed well against already.
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