What a difference a week and a half has made for the Oilers.
It was only last Monday that they were trounced in Los Angeles. Things appeared bleak as they allowed four power-play goals against, and their No. 1 goalie was pulled in his last start before returning to Edmonton ahead of the birth of his first child.
They were a .500 team by wins and losses.
But after beating two of the NHL’s worst teams, the Oilers defeated the two squads at the top of the Pacific Division and last season’s Stanley Cup finalists. Their five-game winning streak has been backstopped by solid goaltending from Stuart Skinner’s replacement, Jack Campbell — the guy who was the clear-cut No. 1 netminder entering the season.
Yup, things are looking pretty great for the Oilers, whose next eight opponents have little hope of making the playoffs. But that doesn’t mean things couldn’t be better.
The team’s brass begins its pro scouting meetings in Las Vegas on Sunday and will zero in on a game plan for the next few weeks ahead of the March 3 deadline.
In asking around, this is what I’ve been able to ascertain about what the roster might look like by then.
Three rookies could dictate deadline plans
The smart money is on GM Ken Holland and his staff finding a way to upgrade the roster, even though assistant GM and chief capologist Bill Scott has his hands full with essentially a dollar-in, dollar-out matrix.
But it’s possible — again, possible — that the Oilers do very little before the deadline or even stand pat entirely.
Much depends on the development of rookies Dylan Holloway, Vincent Desharnais and Philip Broberg. If these three green and cheap players continue their positive development, the Oilers could go forward with them in prominent positions — or at least regular ones — for the duration of the season and beyond.
These three players are quite different and could require vastly different types of replacements in the form of veteran players on the trade market. (To be clear, that doesn’t mean any of those players would be included in such a deal. All can be sent down to AHL Bakersfield without being subjected to waivers.)
Holloway has shown steady improvement all season but continues to remain mostly in the bottom six with little special teams time. If it’s deemed Holloway suddenly isn’t ready for prime time, he could be swapped out with another teammate or a depth player from another organization. Either way, he remains a huge part of the team’s medium- and long-term outlook with little likelihood of being dealt anytime soon.
Desharnais has played just five NHL games but has shown very well and has provided the type of simple, physical and strong penalty killing the team has longed for. He is, however, a bottom-pairing blueliner, so a target like the Sharks’ Jaycob Megna could be acquired if Desharnais falters. The preference is to keep the younger, homegrown player.
Broberg is the true wild card here over the next few weeks.
The Oilers’ higher-ups have been bullish on his NHL trajectory since he was drafted eighth in 2019. As I’ve noted multiple times, there were people in the organization in September who thought he could be as good as the Coyotes’ Jakob Chychrun. by the end of this season.
Given his improved play recently and effective partnership with Evan Bouchard, that projection is now at least plausible when it seemed impossible to envision a couple months ago.
So, the Oilers might not acquire an impactful blueliner if Broberg pushes for the top four or even just continues to establish himself as a regular on defense.
I’ve written that Chychrun would be a perfect acquisition for the Oilers — and colleague Pierre LeBrun recently reported that they’ve checked in on him. I know the reported price isn’t up their alley and they’re not exactly smitten by the player either. Barring something unforeseen, Broberg won’t be offered up for Chychrun — or really anyone else for that matter. That makes Chychrun’s acquisition essentially a pipedream.
Instead, the Oilers could nab someone who won’t cost them Broberg. The Blue Jackets’ Vladislav Gavrikov is believed to be their primary target. It sounds like the Canadiens’ Joel Edmundson is also being considered.
Future Hall of Fame defenseman Duncan Keith, who’s in his first year of a player development role, will be at the pro scouting meetings. His input will surely be sought.
Priorities might pivot to a forward
It was believed all season that the Oilers would be enhancing their defense, particularly the left side. That still is a possible outcome. Again, Broberg might have changed the thinking here.
So, the discernible upgrade to the roster for the Oilers could be a forward — and specifically a center.
Huh? Don’t the Oilers already have Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Ryan McLeod that they can run up the gut? Isn’t a position like right wing more of an area of need?
All that is true. But we’re talking about the potential for a brand-name center here. Think Vancouver and Chicago captains Bo Horvat and Jonathan Toews, both pending UFAs.
The rationale is that McDavid and Draisaitl could then be regular linemates at five-on-five, along with whatever other winger is going well at the time. Nugent-Hopkins or Horvat/Toews could then center the second line with one or both of Evander Kane and Zach Hyman. RNH or the newly acquired player could then anchor the third trio.
How about that forward group? Let’s be real, though. This is a long shot.
The asking price on Horvat from Vancouver should be sky high. He has 30 goals and 49 points in 44 games and has a $5.5 million cap hit.
The Oilers would have to get Chicago to halve Toews’ $10.5 million cap hit. Ideally, they’d even get it quartered by including a third team. Toews, who has a full no-movement clause, has 13 goals and 27 points in 42 games on a terrible Chicago team. He’d be less likely than Horvat to supplant RNH as the No. 2 center, and more likely to take on heavier defensive lifting.
Broberg and Holloway are considered all but off the table in trades. That leaves prospects like Xavier Bourgault and Reid Schaefer as possible trade chips. This year’s first-round pick is believed to be in play at this point.
The Oilers would also have to give up at least one roster player making a decent salary to even out the money against the cap.
Jesse Puljujarvi (Jamie Sabau / USA Today)
Which roster players could be traded? Which ones won’t be dealt?
The Oilers have six players making more than $2 million without no-trade protection: Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak, Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi and Warren Foegele.
It’s not a certainty that all three defensemen won’t be traded, but they’re all considered safe. Yes, that includes Barrie.
Barrie, Puljujarvi and Foegele were summertime trade fodder as management looked to open cap space and improve the roster. All three players were considered overpaid commensurate to their overall skill sets.
Barrie has broken out of that internal evaluation this season. There are some within the organization who count Barrie as Edmonton’s most consistent defenseman from October to now. Plus, even though Bouchard is getting more power-play time, Barrie is deemed the unquestioned No. 1 quarterback.
Yamamoto is hurt. He hasn’t felt right most of the season and his status is unclear even though he remains in Edmonton and around his teammates. Regardless of Yamamoto’s health, the Oilers don’t plan to find a top-six replacement for him on the trade market. It’ll be a bonus if they get him back and productive this season. If not, they feel like they have five bona fide top-six forwards. The sixth will be patchworked.
That leaves Foegele ($2.75 million cap hit) and Puljujarvi ($3 million) as trade candidates. Neither of whom has had much luck or success this season.
Foegele has struggled with injuries but has shown some effectiveness when healthy and in the lineup. Puljujarvi hasn’t produced offensively but has played physically and been responsible along the boards and defensively. They’ve both been a healthy scratch this month.
One of these players — if not both — will almost certainly have to be moved for the Oilers to make a notable splash before March 3.
The word is the Oilers don’t want to pay an asset — and are all but unwilling to give up a significant asset — to offload either player. That’s especially true of Puljujarvi. Although it would be best if they moved on from him for all involved, there is a scenario where they keep him through the deadline and use him in his current fourth-line role. Puljujarvi then wouldn’t be qualified as an RFA in June as things stand now, which would make him eligible for free agency.
Trading Foegele might even be preferable because he’s under contract for next season.
Ryan might have a longer-term future
Another Oiler who might be available in a trade, according to a report from Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli, is Derek Ryan. The 36-year-old doesn’t have a big salary that will open room for an impactful acquisition, but the Oilers will need to clear money when/if Yamamoto returns from LTIR — which can be no sooner than Feb. 12.
Without a trade, at least one player making more than $1.125 million — the maximum of someone’s salary that can be buried in the minors — will have to be waived. Ryan could be that guy, so exploring a trade makes sense.
I’ve come to understand that there is another possible outcome — one that’s on the other end of the spectrum. The Oilers value Ryan as a multi-faceted depth piece. Ryan, who played his university hockey at the University of Alberta, is believed to be fond of Edmonton.
The Oilers are considering extending Ryan, whose contract is up after this season. Any contract offer would be for less than his current rate with the understanding that Ryan would be battling for no more than an 11th forward position and could be scratched more often on his new deal.
This is a minor note, but it does potentially point to someone like Puljujarvi being more likely to hit the waiver wire than Ryan if there’s no trade before Yamamoto returns.
(Photo: Perry Nelson / USA Today)
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