ST. LOUIS — It was well-documented that the Blues had nine players score at least 20 goals last season. This year, they could have just five.
Jordan Kyrou is on pace for 40, followed by Pavel Buchnevich (32), Vladimir Tarasenko (23), Ryan O’Reilly (22) and Brandon Saad (20).
Of the other four, Robert Thomas (18), Brayden Schenn (16) and Ivan Barbashev (11) are tracking for less, and, of course, David Perron signed in Detroit last summer.
Whether it be Perron’s departure, individual performances trending down, or just not being able to find the right line combinations, the Blues offense in 2022-23 has not been comparable to what it was a year ago. The team ranked No. 3 in the NHL in goals per game last season (3.66), and after Thursday’s 3-1 win over Chicago, it’s No. 21 in the league at a half-goal less per game (3.06).
Blues coach Craig Berube has continued to search for the right line combinations, and while he may never find them — or at least before the trade deadline on March 3, when some players could be shipped out — he keeps trying.
Berube’s latest creation is the line of Buchnevich, O’Reilly and Schenn, who got the start in Tuesday’s game against Toronto.
In the Blues’ 5-4 overtime loss to the Maple Leafs, the line saw 10:37 of five-on-five ice time together, and, according to Naturalstattrick, they were about as even as you can get against an opponent — six. Shots for, six against, and one goal for, one against.
“They were OK,” Berube said. “Probably would like more offense out of them. They (had) the one goal against, and defensively, I thought they were pretty solid. But they need more offense, and I think they can control the game more than they do. That’s the key for me, just controlling the game more with the puck.”
Samsonov thought O’Reilly was gonna pass…
O’Reilly said SIKE!!!! #stlblues pic.twitter.com/e8BkmDFHnJ
—St. Louis Blues (@StLouisBlues) December 28, 2022
It was yet another set of wingers for O’Reilly, who didn’t gel with Kyrou at the start of the season and once again couldn’t find any chemistry with Tarasenko. There was finally some cohesiveness when the Blues put their captain with Josh Leivo, but Leivo wasn’t long for the top line, and what they had going eventually dried up.
“It’s like they keep trying to find ways to get me going,” O’Reilly said after Wednesday’s practice. “At the end of the day, I think it’s just me that’s the issue.”
O’Reilly does have 10 goals, which, again, puts him on pace for 22 this season. But he’s tallied just six assists — six! — which projects to a shade under 14 for the season. That would be his fewest helpers since having 14 against Colorado in 2012-13. In fact, in the nine seasons since, that would be 16 assists less than his lowest total in that timeframe (30 in 2020-21 with the Blues).
“It’s nice to have a few goals, (but) still, what — five, six assists, which is insane that I’m not creating more,” O’Reilly said. “It’s frustrating, that part of it.”
O’Reilly has found himself rushing things in the offensive zone too much this season.
“A lot of times it’s forcing plays and not letting things develop,” he said. “I want to play the right way and make things happen, but sometimes you’ve just got to let it develop. I see my own game, and it’s not fun to watch, so I know the issue: Just calm it down and trust my game that way.”
Berube defended O’Reilly’s limited passing production, saying teammates just haven’t scored.
“I think he’s had Perron here for a number of years, and they were a good line,” Berube said. “It didn’t matter who was on the left, moving different guys around, but that was a good pair.
“Buchy, him and Schenner, I’m hoping that comes around and can be a good line for us. They’re a little different players, but they’ve got to just work with each other and try to make it work.”
O’Reilly understands why there was more change going into the game against Toronto. He’s played with Schenn a lot over the years, but not much with Buchnevich since he joined the Blues last season.
“Searching to find something,” O’Reilly said. “If you’re not putting the puck in the back of the net and winning hockey games, we have to switch it up and find new ways. I’ve always wanted to be the guy that is looked at to get other guys going, and yeah, it’s different being on the other end of that.
“Obviously Buchy is a fantastic player. He’s a very smart player, both ends of the ice, so I think we can find something there. We did some good things (against the Maple Leafs). We didn’t get on the board like we wanted to, but I think we can.”
Berube kept the three together against the Blackhawks on Thursday, and they combined for 14 shots on net. Well, full disclosure, 11 of those belonged to Schenn, while Buchnevich had two and O’Reilly one.
In 11:40 of five-on-five play, according to Naturalstattrick, they had a Corsi For percentage of 75 percent, and despite no goals scored for either side, had an expected goal share number of 73.8.
“Well, they had a lot of chances tonight,” Berube said. “I think they’re still looking for some more chemistry. They had opportunities. I just think that they could move the puck a little bit quicker maybe. There was some puck play that was just not clean enough for them. They had the puck on rushes in the offensive zone, and it just didn’t click.”
Schenn, who wasn’t available to speak after the game because a nagging virus has limited his voice, missed on a clear breakaway attempt and didn’t execute on a two-on-one. He directed 15 shots on net, including two that were blocked and one missed.
“He had a lot of good chances, which is good,” Berube said. “I would’ve liked him to shoot on that two-on-one. The guy slides, but he’s still got a lot of net to shoot at.”
It happened in the third period with the Blues clinging to a 2-1 lead over the last-place Blackhawks and about 9:40 remaining in regulation. Schenn was with Buchnevich on that two-on-one and tried to make the pass, but it was broken up by defenseman Caleb Jones.
But the Blues would get an empty-net goal from Saad to seal the win, so nothing hurt.
If the club could keep the Buchnevich-O’Reilly-Schenn line intact, it would really help Berube slot the rest of their combinations well.
“Yeah, for sure,” Berube said. “Just got to stick with it.”
Kyrou leads the Blues with 17 goals and 33 points and has done most of his damage on a line with Thomas and Tarasenko. On Thursday, Tarasenko missed the game due to illness, so Kyrou and Thomas were joined by Barbashev.
But when Tarasenko comes back, he’ll be reunited with Kyrou and Thomas, putting Barbashev on the third line with Saad and Noel Acciari and giving Berube options with his fourth line.
On Thursday against Chicago, the fourth line comprised Alexey Toropchenko, Nathan Walker (who replaced Tarasenko in the lineup) and Leivo. They combined for one goal, two assists, three shots, four hits, and two blocked shots and were a cumulative plus-6.
“The fourth line, they were really solid,” Blues goalie Jordan Binnington said. “They’re playing the right way and they’re a key part of our group, keeping the lines moving and keeping pucks deep. It’s good to see them contribute on the scoresheet, too.”
That said, this analysis of the lines could be moot before too long.
The Athletic‘s Pierre LeBrun reported in his latest rumblings Thursday that O’Reilly is more likely to get dealt before the NHL trade deadline on March 3 than receive a contract extension from the Blues, and Tarasenko will also be an attractive piece since it seems rather obvious that he won’t be coming back.
The latest rumblings on the NHL’s pending UFA class, from Pastrnak to Kane to Bunting to O’Reilly and more. My latest:
via @TheAthletic https://t.co/tCTPw70QqZ
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) December 29, 2022
There are still two months before the deadline, but with Tarasenko listed as out sick Thursday, and the New York Rangers making Alexis Lafrenière a healthy scratch in his team’s 2-1 loss to Tampa Bay, the speculation has already started.
Lafrenière was the No. 1 pick in 2020 but has failed to meet expectations in the Big Apple. He has five goals and 17 points in 36 games this season, and 36 goals and 69 points in 171 games. He’s spent a lot of time on the team’s top line but was recently dropped to the fourth line before coming out of the lineup completely. Even so, it seems like the Rangers wouldn’t be selling with his stock so low.
In the meantime, the Blues will continue looking for line combinations that work.
(Photo of Brayden Schenn looking to pass the puck against the Blackhawks: Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images)
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