This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
TORONTO — With the World Series underway, we’re inching towards the start of the MLB offseason. It comes quickly, then sprawls out over the coming months.
All of Toronto’s work still lies ahead. The Blue Jays locked up manager John Schneider recently, removing his “interim” tag, but soon they’ll be tasked with taking this roster from good to great. It’s a wall that so many teams on the rise eventually hit.
1. Big Picture: Is it time to pivot, or plow forward?
The Blue Jays are at a crossroads. Do they believe that this is the group that will eventually chase a World Series together, or do they see something that needs to be corrected before this organization reaches the next level? It’s an uncomfortable conversation, but one that good teams are forced to have.
This is mainly brought on by money. As their young stars being to climb through arbitration years, this club no longer has the financial flexibility of the 2019-20 era. This is why trading from their Major League roster is far more of an option now than it’s been before.
2. What’s in their wallet?
Enough to go shopping, but only in certain stores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernández are due for significant raises in arbitration, which they’ve fully earned, and they’re not alone. Unless the Blue Jays move some money, they’re likely looking at an offseason shopping at the middle and lower tiers of the market. One move at the top tier is possible, especially a short-term deal for a top pitcher, but not multiple.
Ross Stripling is a free agent and Hyun Jin Ryu will be out until at least mid-2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. This team needs not only one or two legitimate MLB starters, but depth beyond that. The Blue Jays’ upper-Minors depth wasn’t tested much in ’22, and they’re fortunate for that. Toronto was one injury away from a weakness being exposed, and they can’t leave themselves in the same spot this season.
4. How do top prospects like Tiedemann, Martinez and Zulueta factor in?
Other than Gabriel Moreno, the ’22 season was never going to be fueled by prospects. There was a gap between waves for the Blue Jays, but in ’23, they should have legitimate options. Power-hitting infielder Orelvis Martinez (No. 2) will be a top story to watch in camp while Yosver Zulueta (No. 5) and Hayden Juenger (No. 7) will compete for bullpen roles immediately.
All eyes will be on Ricky Tiedemann, though, the No. 1 prospect who lit the Minor Leagues on fire this year, posting a 2.17 ERA with 117 strikeouts across 78 2/3 innings over three levels. Workload management will be a factor in ’23, but Tiedemann has put himself in a position to be a major part of this team. Tiedemann is just 20 years old, but there’s superstar potential here.
5. Who’s first in line for an early extension?
Remember when this was a “Bo or Vladdy” conversation? Manoah has barged in.
Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro has always said these deals are about “sharing risk,” which is a sweet spot both sides need to find. Can Manoah keep this going and be an ace for the next 10 seasons? Can Guerrero rediscover his ’21 form, or is he more of an .875 OPS hitter? Is Bo Bichette the star he finished the year as, or something more in the middle?
The clock is ticking, especially with Guerrero. The closer free agency gets, the more tempting it becomes to have 30 teams bidding against each other for your services, not just one team bidding against hypotheticals.
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