Bettors Eyeing Young And Rahm

Just two events remain in the 2022 FedEx Cup Playoffs, and 68 of the 70 eligible golfers in the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Standings compete in this week’s BMW Championship. For the first time, the state of Delaware will host a PGA Tour event. The 7,534 yard par 71 at Wilmington Country Club will be the course that decides the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup points standings that will advance to next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

There is one notable name missing at this week’s BMW Championship: Cameron Smith. The British Open champion and top-3 ranked player in the world and current FedEx Cup Standings withdrew from the tournament due to hip discomfort.

“It’s the first time we’re getting some PGA action in Wilmington at this particular course,” said Anthony Salleroli, Lead Golf Trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “It’s a lot more difficult to handicap with a new course because you don’t have a stat database. You can look at comparable courses, but you’re not getting the main kibbles and bits of what this course provides. Then there’s also the Cam Smith factor, whose absence from the field definitely took an effect on the top end of the market [odds-wise].”

Last week’s St. Jude Championship winner Will Zalatoris broke through for his maiden PGA Tour win, and with added FedEx Cup points in the playoffs, Zalatoris is now No. 1 in the standings ahead of Scottie Scheffler.

There were six significant longshots with triple-digit odds that finished top-10 at last week’s St. Jude Championship, including Sepp Straka, who lost to Zalatoris in a playoff. While we won’t see near that many major longshots at the top with a smaller field, the unfamiliarity of the golf course does open up the opportunity for more dark horses to challenge and move into the top-30 in the FedEx Cup points standings to play for huge money next week.

That includes the players on the ‘bubble’ and outside the top-30 in the FedEx Cup Standings.

BMW Championship Odds

Updated odds on leading favorites Wednesday afternoon at Caesars Sportsbook. Odds move and are subject to change.

• +900 – Jon Rahm
• +1000 – Rory McIlroy
• +1300 – Justin Thomas
• +1400 – Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler
• +1500 – Collin Morikawa
• +1600 – Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris
• +1800 – Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick
• +2200 – Sam Burns, Cameron Young
• +2500 – Sungjae Im
• +3000 – Viktor Hovland, Joo-Hyung Kim
• +3300 – Joaquin Niemann
• +3500 – Jordan Spieth
• +4000 – Aaron Wise
• +4500 – Shane Lowry, Max Homa

Rory McIlroy was the early week favorite at 10/1, but Jon Rahm has moved from 12/1 to 9/1 with betting support at Caesars Sportsbook. While this year’s event is played on a new course for the first time on Tour, Rahm has excelled in the BMW Championship with four top-10 finishes in five starts, including a win in 2020.

“In this Northeast part of the country, I’m comfortable on these types of greens and this type of grass, and so maybe that’s why my history on this event has been good,” Rahm said at his press conference on Tuesday.

Among the players on the odds board, the action on Rahm stands out. He’s fifth in tickets at 4.9% and second in handle at 9.5%, highlighted by a Nevada bettor who put down $4,000 on Rahm at 12/1 for a potential win of $48,000. Of that aforementioned group above, only Rahm and Finau (third in tickets at 5.8%, fourth in handle at 7.7%) are inside the top 5 for both tickets and handle.

“I think he fell out of favor quickly when he was somewhat out of Rahm-bo form,” Salleroli said. “But he tends to play very well when he has a head of steam behind him. I think a fifth-place finish last week is what the public was looking for to gain all of those added bets and added money on Rahm.”

Collin Morikawa has taken more bets to win and his odds have adjusted sharply from 22/1 to 15/1. Xander Schauffele is next at 18/1, followed by three more leading challengers, Sam Burns, Cameron Young and Sungjae Im.

Cameron Young has also experienced a sizable shift after first being displayed at 30/1, and that’s due to the strong interest he’s received from Caesars Sportsbook bettors. Young is second in tickets (5.9%) to Morikawa (6.2%), yet he’s in the pole position for handling at 11.3%. That includes one New Jersey bettor who laid $2,000 on Young at 28/1 for a potential win of $56,000.

“We can now say that Cam Young is the new Zalatoris,” Salleroli said. “He’s been a public favorite for a while, and he’s finished second in two of the past three tournaments. He’s been knocking at the door, so it’s not a surprise to see all the bets on him. People are just waiting for him to win just like they did with Zalatoris until he finally did it last weekend.”

Morikawa is third in handling at 8.9%, with Scheffler rounding out the top 5 in this category at 5.5%. Some of the other top golfers rankings for handle for the BMW Championship include Zalatoris at 5.4%, Thomas at 5.0%, McIlroy at 4.7%, Fitzpatrick at 2.7% and last year’s FedEx Cup Champion Cantlay at 2.5%.

One noteworthy wager on a longshot comes from a New York bettor who staked $1,288.15 on Brendan Steele 175/1 for a potential win of $225,426.25. Steele now resides at 125/1 to win the BMW Championship.

FedEx Cup Playoffs Format Criticism

The FedEx Cup Playoff format drew criticism again this week from defending champion Patrick Cantlay and the two recent US Open champions Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick.

“I have made my position clear on that in the past. I don’t think it’s the best system,” Rahm told reporters Tuesday.

Fitzpatrick notes that Scottie Scheffler has won four tournaments this year including a major, and Cameron Smith three with a major win. Yet Will Zalatoris won his first PGA Tour title in last week’s opening FedEx Cup Playoff event and passed them both in the FedEx Cup points standings.

“As a player, when you’ve worked hard all season to then not be rewarded for the whole season’s performance, yeah, it is a tough one.”

Check out the featured pairs and follow along Thursday and Friday on PGA Tour live.

• Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay
• Jordan Spieth, Max Homa
• Tony Finau, Sam Burns
• Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris
• Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama
• Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young
• Rory McIlroy, Sepp Straka
• Viktor Hovland, Joaquin Niemann

The odds and betting support suggest the winner comes from these star golfers.

You can bet on it.