The NFL is a passing league, but there has been a renaissance in recent years among workhorse backs with a nose for the end zone. Which one will pace the field in 2022?
Jonathan Taylor led the league in rushing touchdowns (18) a year ago and cashed as a dark-horse pick in the preseason props market. He’s the favorite at BetMGM (+500) to do it again this season, but he faces stiff competition from past winners and young upstarts alike.
Here are the odds to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2022 (+5000 or shorter), as well as some tips for betting this market and our favorite value plays:
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Odds to lead NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2022 (BetMGM)
| Jonathan Taylor | +500 |
| Derrick Henry | +600 |
| Nick Chubb | +1000 |
| Joe Mixon | +1100 |
| Dalvin Cook | +1100 |
| Najee Harris | +1400 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +1600 |
| Leonard Fournette | +1800 |
| Austin Ekeler | +2200 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | +2500 |
| Damien Harris | +2500 |
| JK Dobbins | +2500 |
| Cam Akers | +2500 |
| Jalen Hurts | +2500 |
| Javonte Williams | +2500 |
| James Conner | +2800 |
| Saquon Barkley | +3000 |
| Aaron Jones | +3000 |
| David Montgomery | +3000 |
| Elijah Mitchell | +3000 |
| AJ Dillon | +4000 |
| Antonio Gibson | +4000 |
| Josh Jacobs | +4000 |
| D’Andre Swift | +4000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +4000 |
| Josh Allen | +5000 |
| Alvin Kamara | +5000 |
| Miles Sanders | +5000 |
| Travis Etienne | +5000 |
| Trey Lance | +5000 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | +5000 |
| Chase Edmonds | +6600 |
| Melvin Gordon | +6600 |
| Kyler Murray | +6600 |
| Tony Pollard | +6600 |
| Rashaad Penny | +6600 |
| Deebo Samuel | +6600 |
| Breece Hall | +6600 |
| Devin Singletary | +6600 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | +8000 |
| Kareem Hunt | +10000 |
| Kenneth Walker III | +10000 |
| Raheem Mostert | +12500 |
| James Cook | +12500 |
| Gus Edwards | +15000 |
| Justin Fields | +15000 |
How to bet NFL rushing touchdown leader market
While betting on the touchdown leader may seem as simple as backing the most talented rusher, there are a few key factors to consider before placing a wager.
First and foremost, volume is key. Since 1957, every single leader has scored at least 11 rushing touchdowns, and the vast majority of them led the league in attempts, too. In fact, the leader in rushing attempts has also paced the field in touchdowns in six of the last 10 years, with all six of them logging at least 300 attempts.
That isn’t a prerequisite to cash in this market, though. DeAngelo Williams (200) and Jeremy Hill (223) both scored a league-high 11 rushing touchdowns in 2015 as the lead back for top-10 scoring offenses. Low volume on an elite offense is often better than high volume on a bad offense. And as we saw that season, don’t be afraid to play multiple players in this market, which has seen a whopping 16 players net a share of the touchdown lead in the last decade.
Consider, too, that carries aren’t a birthright; players have to earn them. Last year, journeyman back Mike Davis was a trendy sleeper in this market because of the perceived lack of competition in Atlanta. He lost his job by Week 6 and finished the year with just three rushing touchdowns. Just because someone is atop the depth chart in Week 1 doesn’t guarantee a 200-carry workload.
With all that said, here are our three favorite value plays in this year’s field:
Best bets, long shots to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns
Derrick Henry, Titans (+600)
If you’re looking to bet one of the favorites in this market, it’s hard to go wrong with Henry, who led the league in 2019 (16) and 2020 (17) and has scored double-digit touchdowns in each of the last four seasons .
Yes, Taylor led the league in rushing attempts (332) and touchdowns (18) a year ago, but that’s only because Henry missed the second half of the season with a broken leg. Had he played the whole year, the Titans back was on pace for an NFL-record 465 attempts along with 21 touchdowns – the most by any player since LaDainian Tomlinson’s record-setting 28 rushing scores in 2006.
Henry returned for the postseason last year and will be 10 months removed from his injury by Week 1, and the Titans offense is sure to feature him in a big way after jettisoning star wideout AJ Brown this summer. There’s an injury risk, but Henry had missed two games in his entire career before last year and was on a historic pace through eight weeks. I’ll gladly pay a short price for even 90 percent of that production in 2022.
Austin Ekeler, Chargers (+2200)
Ekeler ranked fifth in rushing touchdowns (12) a year ago despite ranking 14th in rushing attempts (206) – less than two-thirds the workload of Taylor. What happens if the Chargers fully let him loose in 2022?
Ekeler led the league in total touchdowns (20) in 2021 and was the model of consistency as a rusher. He recorded at least 11 carries in 14 of 16 starts and scored at least one rushing touchdown in 10 of them, including each of his final five games. He was also quietly one of the NFL’s best threats near the end zone, ranking second in red-zone carries (46) and fourth in touchdowns inside the 20-yard line (12), 10-yard line (10), and 5- yard line (7).
All that is to say that the idea of Ekeler as a low-volume rusher is a misnomer given how often the Chargers turn to him in key situations. He’s a consistent threat to score for one of the NFL’s most potent offenses, so if his rushing workload ticks up even slightly, he’s a dark-horse to cash in this market.
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JK Dobbins, Ravens (+2500)
Dobbins is a long shot for a reason, as he’s still a question mark to play Week 1 and plays for a team that loves to utilize multiple backs. But if he can earn a large enough share of the carries, it could pay massive dividends.
In 2019, Mark Ingram scored 10 touchdowns as the lead back in the Ravens’ historically proficient rushing offense, which has ranked in the top three in rushing touchdowns in two of the last three seasons. Dobbins converted 134 carries into nine scores of his own as a rookie in 2020 – the most by any running back with fewer than 170 carries that season.
Dobbins scored seven of those touchdowns over the final six games, when he averaged 6.4 yards per carry in a leading role. He should see an even larger share this season of a Baltimore offense that should rank among the league’s best with a healthy Lamar Jackson. There’s risk here, but the upside is massive for the former Ohio State star.
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