Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and fun games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once, and you’re out. The only caveat is that you cannot pick the same team twice.
While it sounds simple, getting a perfect season is always more difficult than it looks. The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also keeping quality options open for future weeks.
Week 1 always has the most uncertainty and is one of the hardest weeks to pick. Last year, underdogs actually had a winning record (9-7) for the first time since 1983. And over the last five seasons, underdogs win 40% of the time in Week 1, compared to 33% of the time in the rest of the season. That has led to 25% of entrants being knocked out in Week 1 last season and 35% getting knocked out in 2020.
This year is especially tricky on paper because almost all of the biggest favorites are on the road. But historically, big road favorites have done better in Week 1 than big home favorites. Over the last 15 seasons, home favorites of at least 6 points are 53-14 (.791) while similar road favorites are 13-1 (.929).
As of Wednesday morning, the 49ers, Colts and Ravens are all 7-point favorites, tied for the biggest favorites this week. However, the Ravens are currently being selected more often than the 49ers and Colts combined. With that being the case, and the Ravens having several good matchups in the future, it makes sense to save Lamar Jackson and company for later.
That leaves the 49ers as my favorite pick this week.
Top picks
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
The 49ers hit the trifecta of being heavy favorites, not having many other usable weeks, and not being highly selected in the Eliminator. This is their highest projected winning percentage in any game this season according to Mike Clay, and they are tied for the largest favorites in Week 1. However, the two teams they are tied with are being selected over three times as often (Ravens 27% , Colts 16%), while the 49ers are only at 5%. Taking Trey Lance on the road in his first Week 1 start seems risky, but without a lot of film on him, even Bears coach Matt Eberflus admitted they don’t know how the 49ers will use him. Meanwhile, the Bears have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL and a quarterback who finished dead last in Total QBR last season. The 49ers should be able to handle the Bears, while also providing leverage on the rest of the field by picking more popular favorites.
Line: 49ers -7 (-320 money line)
Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected
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Other options
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Indianapolis isn’t favored by more than a touchdown until Week 18, meaning this is a fine week to burn the Colts. They have lost eight straight Week 1 games, but that trend should not be predictive. In two meetings last season, the Colts beat the Texans by a combined score of 62-3, with Jonathan Taylor rushing for 288 yards and four touchdowns on 6.3 yards per carry. And now the Colts have a likely quarterback upgrade in Matt Ryan. Taking divisional road favorites early in the season isn’t always a great bet, but the Texans are probably the worst team in the AFC on paper, and picking on them should be a good strategy most of the season.
Line: Colts -7 (-345 money line)
Eliminator Challenge: 14% selected
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
While the Ravens are bigger favorites, they are on track to be by far the chalkiest pick, so I’ll pivot to the second-most popular pick as my third option. While it should be a raucous atmosphere in Seattle, the Broncos are significantly more talented on both sides of the ball, led by the quarterback mismatch of Russell Wilson and Geno Smith. In three Smith starts last season, the Seahawks averaged just 252 yards per game. Denver has two more games this season with at least a 70% chance to win, including next week, but in both of those weeks there are several other quality options.
Line: Broncos -6.5 (-278 money line)
Eliminator Challenge: 16% selected
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
It is another tricky divisional road favorite spot, but at only 3% selected, the Saints are a good contrarian play against a Falcons team that could compete to be among the worst in the NFL. The Saints are a team that appears to have a wide range of outcomes on paper, but they are being selected three times less often than the Titans, who are also 5.5-point favorites, and the Saints don’t have a whole lot of future value outside of Weeks 5 and 15.
Line: Saints -5.5 (-235 money line)
Eliminator Challenge: 3% selected
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