We’ve got a decently busy Monday slate in the NBA, with 16 teams hitting the hardwood.
The pregame narrative: Boston’s Jayson Tatum continues his (very early) march toward MVP contention, while Tyrese Haliburton matches up with a struggling defense. Elsewhere, Jabari Smith has value on his 3-point prop thanks to some fearless volume shooting.
Check out our best NBA prop picks for October 24.
Odds as of 12:20 pm ET on 10/24/2022.
NBA prop picks
Best Bet : Tatum over 26.5 points (-121)
After coming up short in the NBA Finals this past summer, Tatum is on a mission at the beginning of the new season.
The young Celtics star, who has the fourth-shortest MVP odds (+800), has torched opponents for a league-best 34.7 points per game. Unsurprisingly, Boston is off to a 3-0 start.
Tatum is not merely an attractive pick here because of his early scoring surge. We also like the fact that he’s been very efficient so far and that he’s nowhere near his ceiling as a 3-point shooter.
Keep these two stats in mind:
- Tatum’s 58.7% FG percentage ranks eighth among all NBA players averaging 10-plus shots per game.
- Tatum’s 33.3% 3-point percentage is worse than any single-season mark in his career.
To be scoring as effectively as he is, without leaning on bloated 3-point numbers, means Tatum’s run as a top-tier scorer could be sustainable.
While averaging 35 points per game is likely not sustainable, hitting the 27-point mark is something we expect Tatum to have a chance at on a nightly basis.
His average shot attempts per game (21.0) are right in line with his season averages the previous two years (20.6). But with Tatum’s current efficiency, maybe the Celtics should push him to shoot even more.
Key stat: Tatum has scored 29 or more points in all three games so far.
Quick picks
Haliburton over 19.5 points (-122): Haliburton and the Pacers are 12.5-point underdogs, but the 76ers haven’t gotten off to a great start defensively. We’re hoping the Indiana guard can capitalize on that.
Haliburton has 24-plus points in all three games this season, leading the way alongside Canadian rookie standout Bennedict Mathurin.
The winless Sixers, who rank 24th in defensive rating (115.4), have allowed five 20-plus-point scorers through three games.
Smith Jr. over 2.5 threes (+114): One thing we can say about Smith so far is that the rookie has no fear about shooting 3-pointers.
Three games into his NBA career, the No. 3 overall pick has already attempted 26 shots from long range (at least seven in each game). That volume has helped him clear this total in two of three matchups.
Utah has used high-volume 3-point shooting to secure a trio of underdog victories to open the season. As long as it continues to work, Smith should be encouraged to let it fly from beyond the arc.
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