Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore Ravens (+2000 to win the Super Bowl, BetMGM)
2021 Record: 8-9 (4th in AFC North)
The 2021 season proved a disappointing one for Baltimore and head coach John Harbaugh. However, most of that regression can largely be attributed to the fact quarterback Lamar Jackson sustained a few ill-timed injuries.
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With Jackson at quarterback, the Ravens finished 7-5 last season. Without him, they were only 1-4. Since drafting Jackson, Baltimore has played significantly above average with the Louisville product in the lineup.
To date, the Ravens are 37-12 under Jackson. This offseason, Baltimore largely kept its roster intact. Notable losses include wide receiver Sammy Watkins and cornerback Anthony Averett, but the Ravens simultaneously brought in safety Marcus Williams, who has 15 career interceptions.
Oddsmakers believe the return of Jackson to the offense will return the Ravens to the top of the division. Baltimore enters the 2022-23 season as the favorite to win the AFC North.
Ravens offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Signed OT Morgan Moses, DT Michael Pierce, S Marcus Williams. Re-signed FB Patrick Ricard to DT Calais Campbell.
- Drafted Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton (No. 14), Iowa C Tyler Linderbaum (No. 25), Michigan DE David Ojabo (No. 45), Connecticut DT Travis Jones (No. 76), Minnesota OT Daniel Faalele (No. 110 ), Alabama CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (No. 119), Iowa State TE Charlie Kolar (No. 128), Penn State P Jordan Stout (No. 130), Coastal Carolina TE Isiah Likely (No. 139), Houston CB Damarion Williams (No. 141), Missouri RB Tyler Badie (No. 196)
Ravens 2022 Schedule
Week 1: at New York Jets
Week 2: vs. Miami Dolphins
Week 3: at New England Patriots
Week 4: vs. Buffalo Bills
Week 5: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 6: at New York Giants
Week 7: vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 8: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 9: at New Orleans Saints
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: vs. Carolina Panthers
Week 12: at Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 13: vs. Denver Broncos
Week 14: at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 15: at Cleveland Browns
Week 16: vs. Atlanta Falcons
Week 17: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 18: at Cincinnati Bengals
NFL Betting Lines: Ravens Win Total O/U
10.5 Wins (FanDuel)
Without any data considerations or statistical analysis, my gut tells me the Ravens are an over team on their win total this season.
However, I don’t know if it’s that easy. Last season, the Bengals won the AFC North despite winning only 10 games, the fewest of any division winner in the AFC. Although it’s my belief both the Bengals and Steelers are negative regression candidates, it’s still a reasonable expectation that this division will beat each other. Thus, even if you’re a believer in the Ravens, it’s not certain they’ll clear this win total.
That said, there are a lot of winnable games on deck for the Ravens, who enter this season with the 16th-easiest schedule in the league according to my colleague Sean Koerner. Just on paper, I give the Ravens seven wins off the bat – Jets, Dolphins, Giants, Panthers, Jaguars, Falcons, Steelers (h) – assuming Jackson remains healthy over the course of the season.
Assuming they can win all seven of those games against opponents I have power-rated below them, that means they only need to finish 4-6 in their remaining 10 games to clear their win total.
The potential issue? Five of those 10 games came against teams that ranked in the top-half of offensive DVOA last season, per footballoutsiders.com, while an additional two came against a divisional opponent (Bengals). And, for as much as Jackson’s return should provide a boost for the Ravens, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the fact Baltimore ranked 28th last season in defensive DVOA.
They were ninth in defensive DVOA the season before, so I don’t expect them to be that bad again, but Harbaugh needs the defense to improve if they hope to clear this number. It’s going to be close either way, as this is one of the tightest win totals on the board.
I lean towards the over, but need a better number to consider getting involved.
Ravens O/U 10.5 Wins: The Pick
LEAN Over 10.5 Wins (Bet at +115 or better)
Expert best bets, futures, props
Ravens to Win the AFC North (+160, FanDuel)
For as much time as I just spent dissecting the Ravens’ potential pitfalls, I still rate this team as the best in the division.
Joe Burrow is dealing with a ruptured appendix for the Bengals, the Browns Deshaun Watson is suspended for 11 games, and the Steelers have three unproven quarterbacks on their roster. Perhaps it’s an oversimplification, but the Ravens are left with the best quarterback in the division in my opinion.
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Plus, with Jackson under center, the Ravens are 8-4 straight up against the Browns and Bengals. Since I expect the Steelers to regress, the Ravens have a clear path to winning a number of divisional matchups if Jackson stays healthy.
What’s more is that I anticipate the Ravens to be a run-heavy team this season and their divisional opponents historically don’t do well in that department. Last season, all three divisional opponents ranked outside the top-12 in rush DVOA while two (the Browns and Steelers) ranked in the bottom-half.
Add in that the Ravens are 23-10 in home games under Jackson and that gives them a huge advantage over their divisional rivals. Back Baltimore at +140 or better to claim the AFC North and return to the playoffs.
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