Welcome to Texas! The PGA hits my backyard in Austin for what could be the final match play event on tour: the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club. The format begins as a round-robin event Wednesday through Friday before transitioning into single elimination on the weekend. There are 16 four-man groups to start, with at least one of those groups catching my attention.
Odds to win Group 9
Collin Morikawa +165
Jason Day +190
Victor Perez +400
Adam Svensson +400
Pick: Jason Day
Match play is quite unpredictable. Players who have had success in the past showcase a variety of skill sets. There really isn’t one type of golfer to narrow the list down to. Instead, I’m looking at players’ overall game and recent form. Enter Jason Day. He begins this week third in the field for strokes gained total, behind Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, who both have won titles this year. Day has certainly come close with six top-20 finishes in six tournaments played, including a solo 5th in the Phoenix Open, and he gained strokes from tee to green in all six events.
Morikawa is the favorite to win the group but he’s part of “Team No-Putt,” so there’s value on Day, who is third in strokes gained via approach and second in the field for strokes gained putting. This combination is a huge threat to the field. I like Day as a potential option to win the tournament, but having Scheffler on the same side of the bracket makes him a bit less intriguing. For this group, either Adam Svensson or Victor Perez could be dark horses. Svensson has been playing solid as of late with back-to-back top-25 finishes, while Perez has been crushing the Euro tour, winning two events this year. Day is the best in the group off the tee and putting. I’ll take Day.