Process met potential amid a boisterous atmosphere, the type reserved for October yet transpiring on a mid-August Saturday night in Atlanta. The defending World Series champions sold out their ballpark and sent one of the sport’s most menacing young pitchers to the mound. Spencer Strider shredded the Astros for four innings. Two quick outs in the fifth sent Jeremy Peña to the plate.
Peña’s predecessor savored these moments. He silenced sellout crowds, stuck his right hand against his ear and asked them to taunt him more. Peña does not play with that palpable swagger, instead exuding stoicism that surpasses his service time. Peña is not Carlos Correa. No one in or around the Astros expected him to be.
“He’s behaving, growing and acting like someone who has been around for a while, and that’s all people ask of him,” bench coach Joe Espada said.
Peña stepped into an impossible position. Correa cemented himself as one of this franchise’s greatest players. Drafting him in 2012 afforded the Astros a first face of this golden era. General manager James Click and owner Jim Crane orchestrated a gamble by allowing him to walk away this spring with a championship window wide open.
Five months in, they hold a winning hand. The next two will determine the payout. September and October are uncharted territory for Peña, a 24-year-old rookie who carries himself like a 34-year-old veteran. Poise is an admirable attribute, but production wins championships.
“We were all expecting him to go through some stretches where he was going to struggle, but the work he’s putting in the cages and the work he’s putting in the video room, it’s what he needs to get out of it,” Espada said. “We are encouraged by the work he’s doing prior to the game being played. The process is there, and I think the results will match that process soon.”
Allowing Correa to walk sacrificed two assurances — above-average offense and prolific postseason performances. Peña is plummeting away from the former. He had an .825 OPS on June 1. It now sits at .705. The league average OPS+ is 100. Peña’s is 99. Once considered a front-runner for American League Rookie of the Year honors, Peña will need a strong September to even garner a top-three finish.
“You always trust the process. You show up every day, put in the work, and prepare as best as possible and go out to the game and compete,” Peña said this week. “That’s all I can do. Control my preparation, control my mental (approach) and let the results take care of themselves.”
Peña has a .627 OPS since June 1. Twenty of MLB’s 25 qualified shortstops have a higher one. Peña has struck out 99 times across those 240 plate appearances. His chase rate is almost 10 percentage points higher than league average. He is swinging and missing at a 30.9 percent clip. Only 13 major leaguers have a higher one.
“The league realized he was crushing fastballs,” said Jason Kanzler, the team’s former minor league hitting coordinator who now works with Peña as a major league coach. “They threw him more breaking balls. He’s realizing he’s going to have to lay off more breaking balls, and that’s part of it.”
During his first month in the major leagues, Peña hit .409 and slugged .864 against four-seam fastballs. He saw more sliders than four-seamers during May and June as a result. July brought 111 four-seam fastballs and 111 sliders. He hit .348 against the former and .200 against the latter.
The pitch mix is now almost even. Opponents are fixating down and away with a steady diet of sliders and changeups, doing almost everything to avoid a four-seamer leaking over home plate. Peña has seen 28 percent four-seam fastballs, 27 percent sliders and 12 percent changeups across his first 99 games.
Peña is batting .146 against the changeup with a 42.2 percent whiff rate. His .229 batting average against sliders comes with a 39.1 percent whiff rate. Peña is still crushing four-seamers — slugging .633 — but can’t lay off the secondary pitches that accompany them.
“I think he wants to hit the fastball,” Kanzler said. “He can sit (on a) slider when he wants to. I don’t think he’s trying to sweep the zone or cover everything. He’s learning to refine his aggression.”
Peña swings 53.9 percent of the time. Only eight qualified hitters swing more often. Free-swinging can work if contact is made or hits are collected. Peña’s .222 batting average since June 1 is an indicator neither is happening. He’s worked nine walks since then, sending his on-base percentage to .287. Only 13 qualified players have a lower one.
“Given this is his first year in the big leagues, he’s done a phenomenal job at the plate. Obviously, he shows a ton of power, a ton of bat speed,” Kanzler said. “He’s aggressive. He’s exciting. As he keeps getting experience in the league, he’s going to refine his approach, and that’s probably where the best gains for him will come from.”
The struggles are not entirely surprising. Few in the industry or with the team expected Peña to immediately emerge as a middle-of-the-order threat. His rise as a prospect centered on above-average defense, speed and marvelous makeup. All three are apparent. Peña covers 29.3 feet per second when he sprints. No. Astro is faster.
“He is able to deal with success and failure and be able to be the same guy every single day when he shows up here,” third baseman Alex Bregman said. “He’s been playing unbelievable defense and changed the game on offense for us multiple times. Whether it be a stolen base here or a stolen base there, it’s a difference maker.”
Bregman can relate to Peña like few in Houston’s clubhouse. He went hitless in his first 19 major league plate appearances and started his career 2-for-38.
The Astros maintained their faith in Bregman despite the malaise, much like they are with Peña. Both men are masters of compartmentalization. Dismal offense does not impact their defense, a trait so few young players present.
“My first year in pro ball is when I really started focusing on, if I didn’t make it happen with the bat, go make it happen on defense,” Peña said. “That’s something I’ve always taken pride in — don’t let that affect you. On either side, don’t let your defense carry into your at-bats, and don’t let your at-bats carry into your defense.
“Once I started learning to deal with just learning with the game, regardless if it was a great game or a bad game, that’s when I kind of shifted from being results-based to process-based.”
Proof is apparent that offensive results aren’t dictating Peña’s defense. Metrics paint him as the front-runner to dethrone Correa as the American League’s Gold Glove shortstop. According to Sports Info Solutions, Peña is worth 12 defensive runs saved at shortstop. Baseball Savant rates him at six outs above average. Both lead all qualified American League shortstops.
“You have to give him all the credit in the world. He is fantastic on defense, and something I really appreciate is he is not just going to hang his hat on just his defense,” Kanzler said. “He wants to hit and be a superstar hitter. That plays into his work ethic and his makeup and his drive to be exceptional in all facets of the game.”
Developing Peña comes while Houston is in pursuit of a World Series. Michael Brantley’s season-ending surgery and Yuli Gurriel’s underperformance leaves the lineup without as much support for Peña as it was envisioned before the season.
Peña still doesn’t need to play outside himself, but the team will ask him to execute in situations his predecessor perfected. Correa had an .849 OPS in 334 postseason plate appearances. Even his worst, injury-derailed seasons still segued into superb Octobers.
Correa’s clutchness can’t be quantified. The Astros lost something they can’t replicate when that went to Minnesota. Correa isn’t even guaranteed a chance to showcase it with his current club, which entered Monday 1½ games out of a playoff spot.
Peña is promised a spot on this sport’s biggest stage. Houston will need him to bring the poise he’s carried all season. Saturday night at Truist Park provided a glimpse of what it could be.
Strider followed the scouting report and fired four fastballs. Three of them flew into the left-handed batter’s box. Opponents are peppering Peña with pitches down and away. He has not shown the ability to stop chasing them. Peña swung through one of Strider’s fastballs but resisted the other two
Peña gained count leverage and forced Strider to throw him a strike. The 99 mph four-seamer bisected home plate. Peña pounded it 385 feet to the opposite field. The baseball landed in some bushes over the right-field fence.
“His natural ability just took over, on autopilot, which is a great thing for him,” Kanzler said. “He’s an amazing athlete, and when he quiets the noise and just lives in the moment, he can do things like that. He can handle a 99 (mph) fastball the other way. He can make amazing plays in the hole. He can do everything.”