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Alex Ovechkin’s march to 802 goals: Can the Capitals star catch Wayne Gretzky?

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Alex Ovechkin overtook Gordie Howe for the second-most career NHL goals, notching his 801st in the first period against the Winnipeg Jets on Friday and the 802nd in the third. Now the only name above the Washington Capitals captain on the goals list is Wayne Gretzky with 894.

The roots of Ovechkin’s goal-scoring prowess began with Dynamo Moscow of the Russian Superleague when he was just 16 years old. This served as the prelude to Ovechkin being drafted No. 1 in 2004 by the Capitals.

In his rookie NHL season, Ovechkin finished with 106 points and 52 goals. He led all rookies in goals, points, shots and power-play goals.

Ovechkin, 37, is now in his 18th NHL season and yet he continues to be one of the league’s most prolific goal scorers. In seasons with an 82-game schedule, Ovechkin has recorded at least 30 goals every time. He’s a nine-time winner of the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s leading goal scorer, along with winning the Hart Trophy three times and the Ted Lindsay Award three times. Ovechkin has tallied 50 goals in a season nine times, tying him with Gretzky and Mike Bossy for the most all time. Additionally, in 2018, his 13th season in the league, Ovechkin captured his first Stanley Cup.

Now that the star is playing in the twilight years of his career, the question remains: Will Ovechkin become the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer?

Below is a breakdown of Ovechkin’s career and what’s left for him to get there.

All-time NHL goals list

Below are the top 10 players on the NHL’s all-time goal list (*= active player)

All-time NHL goals list

Rank

Player

No. of Goals

1

Wayne Gretzky

894

2

Alex Ovechkin*

802

3

Gordie Howe

801

4

Jaromir Jagr

766

5

Brett Hull

741

6

Marcel Dionne

731

7

Phil Esposito

717

8

Mike Gartner

708

9

Mark Messier

694

10

Steve Yzerman

692

Ovechkin’s goals to date

Coming into the season, Ovechkin sat alone in third on the all-time goals list with 780 goals. Over 35 games this year, Ovechkin has 22 goals, putting him on pace to score 49. If he can maintain his current pace, Ovechkin would only be 65 goals behind Gretzky entering 2023-24.

On March 15, 2022, against the New York Islanders, Ovechkin scored his 767th goal, surpassing Jaromir Jagr on the career goals list. Ovechkin finished last season with 50 goals.

Comparing Ovechkin to Howe

Era plays a big role when it comes to how a player’s career takes shape. Get stuck in the dead puck era, and goals are hard to come by. Play in the high-flying 1980s, and lighting the lamp is a little bit easier.

Neither Ovechkin nor Howe had it easy. Over Ovechkin’s career, the average goals per game was 5.78. For Howe, it was a shade lower at 5.7. Scoring goals was a much bigger challenge for both players than it was for some of the stars that made their hay in the ’80s where there were 7.6 goals scored on average.

For Ovechkin, the recent league-wide goal explosion has certainly helped as he builds his case as the greatest scorer ever. Over the past six seasons, the average goal rate has risen to 6.08 goals per game, compared to 5.62 during the prime of his career.

Hockey Reference has an era adjustment that accounts for all of that, putting all players on the same plane as best they can. There, it’s plain to see how each player has been affected by their scoring environment. Adjusted for era, Howe’s goal total should be closer to 925.

And as for Ovechkin, he should already be considered the greatest scorer of all time with 936 era-adjusted goals — and counting. The most ever. — Luszczyszyn

How Ovechkin compares to Gretzky, the all-time leader

Ovechkin entered the 2022-23 season 114 goals behind Gretzky. With Ovechkin’s career goals per game at 0.612 entering the season, that means it will take approximately 186 games to reach 113 more goals, tying Gretzky at the top. That’s roughly a little over two seasons, assuming the goals-per-game rate holds.

Ovechkin’s career goals per game (0.61) surpasses Gretzky’s (0.601), who played 1,487 NHL games in 20 seasons.

Health will be a major factor for Ovechkin. On top of the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, missing games due to injury could hinder Ovechkin’s chances of catching Gretzky.

As The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn outlined in 2019, Ovechkin catching Gretzky is becoming more realistic. That was before his renaissance 2021-22 campaign when Ovechkin recorded 50 goals.

It won’t happen during 2022-23, but how Ovechkin performs this season will be an important indicator of his chances at catching Gretzky.

How Ovechkin compares to active players

Ovechkin is also the leader in career goals per game among players who have played a minimum of 1,000 games. He is second among active players in career goals per game, behind Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (0.63). However, Matthews has played 868 fewer games than Ovechkin in his career.

Which active player is closest to Ovechkin?

That would be Sidney Crosby, who had 517 career goals entering the 2022-23 season. At the time, he was 263 goals behind Ovechkin.

Ovechkin, Crosby and Tampa Bay Lightning captain Steven Stamkos are the only active players in the top 50 of the all-time career goal list. Crosby’s career goals per game is 0.47 and he’s played 1141 career games, 168 fewer than Ovechkin.

Ovechkin and Crosby’s careers will be compared, given that they played in the same era and entered the league during the same season (2005-06). But in terms of goal scoring, Ovechkin remains the leader in the 21st century and it’s not close.

Howe’s last goal

Howe scored his 801st goal as a member of the Hartford Whalers, taking on his former team the Detroit Red Wings on Apr. 6, 1980. It ended up being Howe’s final regular-season game.

Three days later, Howe scored his final NHL goal in the playoffs against the Montreal Canadiens.

Gretzky’s last goal

Gretzky recorded his 894th career NHL goal on March 29, 1999, when the New York Rangers faced the New York Islanders.

Memorable Ovechkin goals

There are so many to choose from in Ovechkin’s illustrious career.

But his goal against the Arizona Coyotes on Jan. 16, 2006, remains iconic, scoring while lying on his back to beat Brian Boucher. The former Coyotes goalie praised Ovechkin on social media for the goal’s anniversary 14 years later.

If Ovechkin surpasses Howe and Gretzky, this goal will be included in every career highlights video.

What they’re saying

Gretzky spoke in January 2022 about Ovechkin chasing history:

“I don’t think it’s a question of if anymore. It’s a question of when,” Gretzky said to SiriusXM NHL Network Radio. “And it’s great for the game. You know what? Alex is a wonderful young man. We’re good friends, and, hey, listen, if he breaks it, I hope I’m there to shake his hand.”

On Dec. 5, Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid praised Ovechkin’s goal-scoring abilities:

“He loves to score,” McDavid said. “I think everyone does but maybe he’s on another level. He’s got such a nose for the net. He just seems to know where to be.

“Gordie Howe, you just say his name and you know what it means to the game of hockey. It’s a credit to him and everything he’s done and accomplished. It’s a pretty amazing feat.”

Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews spoke on Ovechkin when Chicago played Washington on Dec. 13:

“It’s incredible,” Toews said. “There’s a lot of Wayne Gretzky’s records you never thought anyone would touch, especially the goal one. So to see where he’s at, 800 goals, it’s hard to comprehend, really.”

(Photo: Sam Navarro / USA Today)

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