Over at MLB.com, they periodically run polls to help predict award winners. The latest polls are out about the Cy Young Awards for the National and American Leagues, and while things look good for Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias to finish high in the voting, he’s being given practically no shot at actually winning the award.
Of 33 voters in the poll, 31 of them placed Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara first on their ballots, with the other two first-place votes going to Urias, the league leader in ERA.
With five points awarded for a first-place vote down to one point for a fifth-place vote, the ranked order is Alcantara, Max Fried (Braves), Urias, Carlos Rodon (Giants), and Zac Gallen (DBacks), with a hefty list of “Also Receiving Votes” including Yu Darvish (Padres), Aaron Nola (Phillies), Corbin Burnes (Brewers), Kyle Wright (Braves), Edwin Díaz (Mets), Spencer Strider (Braves), Tony Gonsolin (Dodgers) , Max Scherzer (Mets), and Tyler Anderson (Dodgers).
Urias will take the mound for the Dodgers tonight looking for his 18th win of the season, and he still has a chance for his second straight 20-win season. It won’t be an easy task, as Gallen will be opposing him tonight for Arizona.
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Urias was the only 20-game winner in the majors last year, and he has a decent shot to be one of just two or three 20-game winners this year. For some of the more old-school generation, it’s hard to see how Alcantara is leading the race, especially so drastically, when his ERA is a bit worse than Julio’s and his 13-8 record is nothing to write home about.
But the fact is, Alcantara is overwhelming the voters with quantity. We can throw win/loss record out the window, because voters these days recognize that wins and losses are team stats more than individual. The fact that Alcantara plays for a poor offensive team shouldn’t affect an award based on how well he pitched. Where Alcantara really sets himself apart is just how much he has pitched. His 212.2 innings pitched lead the majors and tower over Urias’s 158.2.
Alcantara has pitched 34 percent more innings than Julio, and he has been almost as good on a per-inning basis. Imagine someone made you an offer with two options: A) “I will give you $100 per hour every day for eight hours per day”; or B) “I will give you $98 per hour every day for 11 hours per day.” When you crunch the numbers and see that the offers are $800 or $1,078 per day, the choice becomes obvious.
That’s the argument for Alcantara. He has basically been Urias plus two really good relievers, and that value is hard to beat. These Dodgers simply aren’t built for a Cy Young Award winner. They pull guys early. They give them an extra day of rest when they can. The ultimate goal is the World Series title, and they plan everything else accordingly. So yes, Julio has a top-five Cy Young finish coming up, but no, he’s probably not going to win it.
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