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How will Red Sox be impacted by MLB’s new rules on shifts, clocks, and bases?

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Are the Red Sox about to get a few more seeing-eye singles from next year’s leadoff hitter? Did their $140-million free agent just become a little more valuable? Have their already-troublesome late-inning matchups hit yet another snag?

On Friday, Major League Baseball announced a series of rule changes for 2023 that could meaningfully alter the sport as it balances pace of play with competitive integrity. The short version of those changes:

  • Shifts will be banned.
  • A pitch clock will be enforced.
  • Bases are going to be a little bit bigger.

There’s more to it — and you can get into the weeds here and here — but those are the basics, and the changes are going to impact every team, including the Red Sox. Two different team officials said the front office and coaching staff are still figuring out what exactly to expect, although the broad strokes are obvious: infield defense will become more important, pull hitters will probably get a few more singles, and pitchers are going to have to hurry (some of them are going to have to really rush).

There might be some ripple effects that we don’t foresee at the moment, but with the Red Sox suffering another loss to the Orioles, 3-2, on Friday, and their 2022 season rapidly coming to a close, here are some initial thoughts on which Red Sox might be most affected by the changes as we look ahead to 2023.

Offensive impact of banning shifts

According to Statcast, 45 players have faced a shift in more than 85 percent of their plate appearances this season, and the list includes some guys you’ve heard of: Shohei Ohtani, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Schwarber, Kyle Tucker, Corey Seager, José Ramírez. Those last two face a shift roughly 93 percent of the time.

The Red Sox don’t have anyone who gets shifted quite like that. In fact, of the 153 batters who have faced a shift at least 60 percent of the time this year, only two are Red Sox: Franchy Cordero (72.3 percent) and Reese McGuire (66.1 percent).

But that doesn’t mean a few Red Sox won’t be helped by the new rules against them.

Of the Red Sox regulars, Rafael Devers has been shifted against most often (55.9 percent; basically league average for left-handed hitters). He’s been successful against shifts (.396 wOBA), but teams are defending him that way for a reason. Frankly, Devers seems to hit no matter what, but limiting the way teams can defend against him surely won’t hurt.

The Red Sox hitter most affected by the ban might be Kiké Hernández. He’s seen a shift 51.1 percent of the time this season, which is a lot for a right-handed hitter (league average is 20.4 percent for righties). Every other current Red Sox player has faced a shift less than 30 percent of the time (notably, Bobby Dalbec also has been shifted against quite a bit for a righty). From FanGraphs, here’s a spray chart of Hernández’s groundballs since 2019. Some of that green blob on the left side of the infield might have a fighting chance of getting into left field for a hit next year.

Defensive impact of banning shifts

Until we know who the 2023 Red Sox shortstop is going to be, there’s no good way of knowing exactly how much they might be affected by the new rule banning more than two infielders on either side of second base. But one team official put it bluntly: “Defense matters now.”

Manager Alex Cora has been stressing defense since his return to the team last season, and the organization has embraced shifts under chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. The numbers show that the Red Sox haven’t shifted all that often against righties (14.9 percent of the time, bottom third of the league), but they’ve shifted a ton against lefties (67.1 percent of the time, fourth most). Their team defensive positioning heat map includes a bright circle in shallow right field where the second baseman often plays.

Unable to do that next year, the team will have to rely on its first baseman and second baseman to cover a lot of ground — and they just happen to have one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball. In his first year at the position, Trevor Story is tied for the second most Outs Above Average at second base this season, and Statcast data suggests he’s the best in the game at ranging to his left. That’s got to be better than nothing.

As for the left side of the infield, the Red Sox haven’t shifted that direction very often even under the current rules, but it stands to reason that defensive range and ability could become an even greater focus as they consider whether to bring back Xander Bogaerts or try to find someone else to replace him at shortstop. Defensive metrics suggest Devers has taken a significant step forward defensively this season, which is surely even better news under these circumstances.

Beating the clock on the mound

An initial look at the Statcast data on Friday suggested almost every pitcher in the sport was screwed. Pitchers will have 20 seconds to begin their throwing motion with runners on base and 15 seconds when the bases are empty, but according to Statcast’s tempo measurement, only 16 pitchers have met the runners-on-base standard this season (a whopping 377 have not ), and only 26 have met the bases-empty standard (367 have not). Pretty damning numbers!

But then, Baseball Savant updated its site to include this note: Before you compare this metric to the newly approved 2023 pitch timer, please note that this is not measuring the same thing as the MLB pitch timer.

OK, so Statcast can’t tell us who exactly is blowing past the pitch clock this season, but it can tell us who on the Red Sox is particularly slow between pitches, and Matt Barnes has been the Red Sox’s greatest slowpoke. With the bases empty, his 23.2 seconds between pitches (as measured by Statcast) would rank among the 15 slowest in baseball if he had enough pitches to qualify. He and Hirokazu Sawamura have taken more than 27 seconds apiece with runners on base, which again puts them among the slowest in the game.

Otherwise, Tanner Houck and John Schreiber have also been pretty slow by the Statcast measurement, but they barely crack the Top 100 of slowest pitchers with the bases empty, and they’re nowhere near the 100 slowest with runners on base. Nick Pivetta hasn’t been too terribly slow with the bases empty, but with runners on base, he’s taken more than 30 seconds roughly 20 percent of the time. The new clock might be something he has to keep in mind.

Among the Red Sox fastest workers are Garrett Whitlock, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill. Brayan Bello also can work pretty quickly when he’s pitching well.

UPDATE 9/10 10:25 am: One baseball source did some digging last night and returned a slightly more concrete estimate. His understanding is, for the bases-empty data, we can safely subtract about 6 seconds from the Baseball Savant tempo numbers to get a more accurate Pitch Clock estimate. So, Whitlock goes from slightly over the 15-second cutoff (16.2 seconds) to comfortably under (10.2 seconds). Houck goes from way over the line (20.3 seconds) to just under (14.3 seconds). The internal estimate is that some 85 percent of pitchers currently work under the Pitch Clock threshold.

But those who do not will likely need to make some adjustments in the offseason to keep pace.

More and better chances to run

Asked who might take advantage of the larger bases — and the resulting shorter distance between first base and second base — to swipe a few more bags, one Red Sox source suggested that impact might be overblown. The larger bases are primarily about player safety by avoiding collisions, especially at first base.

Whatever protects Triston Casas from getting spiked can only be a good thing for the Red Sox.

But the combination of shorter distance between the bases, and the pitch clock rules that limit pickoff attempts — because pickoffs will be an easy way to reset the timer — could affect how often a player runs.

A guy like Jarren Duran can probably steal bases anyway (assuming he can actually get on base), but the changes could let a good baserunner like Story steal even more bags, and it might let decent sprinters like Bogaerts, Bobby Dalbec and Christian Arroyo — maybe even average runners like Hernández, Alex Verdugo and Rob Refsnyder — get a little more aggressive in their stolen base attempts.

Cora often talks about wanting his team to play fast and force action on the bases. Exploiting a new set of rules to get his players off and running could fit his managerial style.

(Top photo of Devers: Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA TODAY)

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