The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our MLB odds series for our Phillies Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Ranger Suarez gets the call for the Phillies, while Madison Bumgarner starts for the Diamondbacks.
Ranger Suarez missed a few weeks at the beginning of July. He returned to the Philadelphia rotation on July 16. His ERA at the time was 4.33. He was having an ordinary season, much like the Phillies. Since the All-Star break, the Phillies have become a much better team. Suarez has become a much better pitcher, lowering his ERA almost a full run down to 3.38. He has been superb after returning to the rotation. Suarez, in his last seven starts (July 16 and onward), has pitched 41 innings and allowed only seven earned runs. Crucially, he has given up just one home run in those 41 innings. His reliability coincides with the fact that the Phillies are beating bad teams and are cashing in when they get a weaker set of games on their schedule. Suarez is a big reason Philadelphia is solidifying its place as a playoff team. He will need to continue to deliver this level of performance in September if the Fightin’ Phils are to play postseason baseball in 2022.
Madison Bumgarner posted a 1.17 ERA in April. In every subsequent month of the season, his monthly ERA has been over four runs. It has been especially rough for Bumgarner after the All-Star break. In each of his last five starts and in six of his last seven appearances, he has allowed at least four earned runs and five total runs. Walking 14 hitters in those six subpar starts has been bad, but the main problem is that Bumgarner is giving up a lot of solid contact. He has allowed at least eight base hits in five of his past seven starts, seven hits in six of his last seven appearances. That’s a lot of baserunners and a lot of solidly-hit balls.
Courtesy of FanDuelhere are the Phillies-Diamondbacks MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Diamondbacks Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (-110)
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-110)
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
Why The Phillies Could Cover the Spread
The Phillies are in solid position for the National League wild card because they have been able to beat the bad teams on their schedule. Sure, they lost to the Pirates on Sunday, but they won that weekend series, and they have regularly been winning series against bad teams in August: over the Reds, over the Nationals, over the other teams they are supposed to beat. The Phillies are not as good as the Mets or the Braves or the Dodgers, and they’re unlikely to make a deep run into October, but this team is likely to play in October (the postseason) because it has found a new level of maturity since Joe Girardi was fired and Rob Thomson replaced him. That, plus the fact that Madison Bumgarner is struggling mightily, adds up to a Philadelphia win in Phoenix.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
After sweeping the White Sox on the road in Chicago, the D-Backs are going to come home feeling good about themselves. This isn’t a good team, but it’s not that far below .500, and it’s a real goal for manager Torey Lovullo to reach the .500 mark. That would be an impressive achievement in a division with the red-hot Dodgers and the talent-laden Padres. Arizona is not a pushover, and after the Phillies caught a cross-country plane flight for this game, the Diamondbacks might catch their opponent off guard.
Final Phillies-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
The Phillies’ improved track record against good teams, plus Bumgarner’s consistent struggles, is a winning recipe for Philadelphia here.
Final Phillies-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5
