The Colorado Rockies and New York Mets will conclude their series in Queens on Sunday afternoon. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Rockies-Mets prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Colorado has a 54-74 record, which puts them in last place in the NL West and gives them no hope of making the playoffs this season. The team has gone 3-7 in their last 10, further distancing themselves from contention. An 18-42 record away from Coors Field has sealed this team’s fate.
New York is the toast of the NL East, with an 82-46 record that puts the team in first place. The team is riding a three-game win streak, which is also the number of games that separate them and the second-place Atlanta Braves.
Here are the Rockies-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rockies-Mets Odds
Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (+132)
New York Mets: -1.5 (-160)
Over: 7 (-115)
Under: 7 (-105)
Why The Rockies Could Cover The Spread
German Marquez will be Sunday’s starting pitcher. Marquez has endured a brutal season, pitching to a 5.22 ERA in his 24 starts. Things have been better of late, though, as the righty has a 4.22 ERA over his last seven starts. Marquez’s stuff has taken a huge step back this season, as his curveball is the only one of his four pitches holding batters below a .200 average. The next lowest total is off Marquez’s slider, which batters have hit at a .291 clip. Marquez’s strikeout rate has fallen in a big way since its 2018 peak, but he has lowered his walk rate to 7.9% from 8.5% last season.
So, why any optimism?
Well, in two starts against St. Louis earlier this month, consecutive appearances for Marquez, the righty combined for 12 innings and only five earned runs. Colorado’s bullpen has been what can be expected of a team 20 games under .500. Their 4.79 bullpen ERA is the third-worst mark in the league. Closer Daniel Bard is the lone bright spot, with a 2.38 ERA and 26 saves in 45 appearances.
Colorado’s offense has been surprisingly good given their record. The team ranks second in the league with a .262 batting average, and fifth with 228 doubles. The group is led by veteran first baseman CJ Cron, who leads the team with 24 home runs and 84 RBI. Charlie Blackmon has continued his career of steady production, with 16 home runs and 19 doubles to go along with a .270 batting average. Second baseman Brendan Rodgers, the team’s first-round pick in 2015, has built on a successful 2021, pacing the team with 28 doubles, adding 11 home runs and a .280 batting average. Shortstop Jose Iglesias leads the team with a .307 batting average along with his usual elite defense.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Max Scherzer has turned in another vintage season at 38 years old. Scherzer has gone 9-3 with a 2.33 ERA in 115.2 innings across his 18 starts. Age cannot stop the dominant right-hander, as Scherzer has struck out 30% of batters he has faced, ranking in the 87th percentile. To show how good Scherzer truly is, that would be his lowest strikeout percentage in the StatCast Era (since 2015), but is still 8 percentage points above the league average. Scherzer keeps batters guessing, throwing his second-highest percentage of sliders ever. That’s bad news for opponents, as Scherzer has surrendered just a .182 batting average against those sliders.
New York’s bullpen is average as a whole, but there are a few dominant relievers in that group. Adam Ottavino has found his old stuff, going 5-2 with a 2.09 ERA in his 52 appearances. Seth Lugo and his curveball have held batters to a .236 average, and Lugo has a 3.18 ERA in his 50 appearances.
Of course, closer Edwin Diaz is lurking at the end of games. Diaz has saved 28 games, with a 1.40 ERA in 51 appearances. Now here is where the numbers get crazy. Diaz has struck out 50% of the batters he has faced this season, while walking just 8.1%. Diaz still has the same two-pitch mix he has had for most of his career, but he has flipped it this season. Now, Diaz throws 57% sliders, a massive increase from 2021.
New York’s offense is led by the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso. The hulking first baseman has belted 31 home runs and 105 RBI, with a .273 batting average. Alonso is tied with Paul Goldschmidt for the NL lead in RBI. In a reverse from the stereotypical slugger, Alonso strikes out at a below league average rate. Francisco Lindor has bashed 21 home runs, driving in 85 runs and stealing 14 bases. Jeff McNeil leads the team with a .322 batting average and 34 doubles. Starling Marte, part of owner Steve Cohen’s offseason haul, has hit .292 with 14 home runs and 19 stolen bases. As a team, New York has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate, striking out just 969 times.
Final Rockies-Mets Prediction & Pick
Give the nod to Max Scherzer and the Mets in this one.
Final Rockies-Mets Prediction & Pick: New York -1.5 (-160), over 7 (-115)
