The Cleveland Guardians and the Seattle Mariners will begin a four-game series in Seattle on Thursday afternoon. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Guardians-Mariners prediction and pick we have laid out below.
The Cleveland Guardians are in first place in the AL Central, a spot they have become accustomed to over the last decade or so, with a 66-56 record. Cleveland has been backed by their strong pitching of late, and are 33-26 against teams with a record of .500 or better.
Seattle owns nearly an identical record to Cleveland at 67-57, but find themselves 12.5 games behind Houston in the AL West. Still, Seattle holds the third and final AL Wild Card spot, holding off a recent hot streak from the Baltimore Orioles.
Here are the Guardians-Mariners MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Mariners Odds
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+152)
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-184)
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Cleveland will send young right-hander Triston McKenzie to the mound Thursday. McKenzie has pitched some of the best baseball of his career over his last three starts, allowing just four earned runs across 21.2 innings, striking out 25 batters in that span. In his last start, McKenzie struck out an impressive 14 batters in just seven innings. On the season, McKenzie has pitched to a 3.11 ERA in 23 appearances (22 starts). McKenzie has walked just 6.4% of the batters he has faced, the lowest rate of his career. The curveball is McKenzie’s best weapon, as batters have hit a measly .117 against the offering. Cleveland’s bullpen ranks sixth with a 3.25 ERA, striking out 433 batters in 402 innings. Relievers Trevor Stephan (2.44 ERA with 62 strikeouts in 48 innings) and James Karinchak (1.35 ERA with 36 batters in 20 innings) have been a dominant duo. Closer Emmanuel Clase has a minuscule 1.20 ERA with 29 saves in 55 appearances.
Jose Ramirez is red hot recently, hitting .308 with three home runs in his last seven games. On the season, Ramirez has a .285 batting average with 25 home runs and 103 RBI, adding 14 stolen bases. Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor have added 15 home runs apiece. Gimenez paces the team with 15 stolen bases and a .309 batting average. Rookie Steven Kwan, despite a rough May, is hitting .298 with more walks than strikeouts on the season. Kwan has hit .328 with 2 home runs across his last 30 games. Cleveland ranks fifth in the league with 81 stolen bases, and has struck out just 845 times, the lowest rate in the league. The team also ranks ninth with 218 doubles and ninth with a .252 batting average.
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
Seattle has endured a bit of an offensive drought, scoring 11 runs in their last four games. Yesterday they wasted a brilliant performance from George Kirby in a 3-1 loss to Washington. Still, the team has a ton of potential on the offensive side. Eugenio Suarez paces the team with 23 home runs and 71 RBI. Julio Rodriguez joined an impressive club yesterday, launching his 20th home run, to join the 20/20 club, as he has stolen 23 bases. Ty France, the first-time All-Star, leads the team with a .278 batting average, adding 14 home runs and 19 doubles. Sam Haggerty, the switch-hitting utility player, has impressed in limited duty, hitting .310 and adding 10 stolen bases in just 54 games. In just 91 games, catcher Cal Raleigh has belted 18 home runs, with 36 of his 59 hits of the extra-base variety. Seattle is one of the most patient teams in baseball, with their 448 walks ranking fourth in the league.
Marco Gonzales will be this afternoon’s starting pitcher. Gonzales has pitched to a 4.08 ERA in 134.2 innings, going 8-12 in his 24 starts. Gonzales throws with below-average velocity, averaging just 88.5 mph on his fastball, relying heavily on his changeup. Going under the hood a bit, Gonzales has been victimized by a high rate of fly balls turning into home runs. Gonzales has allowed a home run on 12.2% of his fly balls, the 17th-highest rate in the league. Gonzales’ FIP, which is more indicative of a pitcher’s pure stuff, is over 5.00, which raises the question of how long Gonzales can keep this pace. Seattle’s bullpen, minus yesterday’s snafu, has been pretty good. Penn Murfee owns a 2.72 ERA in his rookie season, with 58 strikeouts in 53 innings. Erik Swanson, a one-time Yankees farm hand, owns a 0.90 ERA in 40 innings. Andres Munoz, armed with a triple-digit fastball, has struck out 79 batters in 49.2 innings. Closer Paul Sewald, with his sweeping slider, has pitched to a 2.66 ERA with 16 saves this season. Should Gonzales struggle, manager Scott Servais can deploy a strong core of relievers.
Final Guardians-Mariners Prediction & Pick
Look for McKenzie to continue his recent hot streak in this one.
Final Guardians-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Cleveland -1.5 (+152), over 8 (-105)
