What does the future of the Pac-12 Conference hold?
As college conference realignment and expansion speculation and rumors continue to swirl, take a look at some burning questions facing the Pac-12 Conference and possible answers to those questions from college and conference insiders.
Keep coming back as we update this story with more burning questions surrounding the future of the Pac-12.
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Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News answered a question about the odds of the Pac-12 potentially collapsing if Stanford, Cal, Washington and Oregon left for the Big Ten.
He wrote: “100 percent. In that scenario, a total of six schools would be headed to the Big Ten, and the Four Corners (Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah) would undoubtedly leave for the Big 12. Sure, the conference could reform with Oregon State, Washington State and a slew of Mountain West schools, but it would be the Pac-12 in name only.”
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CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd wrote: Separate from any Big Ten discussion, ESPN now has a chance to become somewhat of a “kingmaker” regarding these leagues. Each conference is eyeing the other’s schools in what could become the next big realignment story. Without a Big Ten deal, ESPN has theoretically freed up money to spend as both conferences are currently in flux. The Pac-12 is desirable because ESPN would not otherwise have any games in the valuable “fourth window” — after 10 pm ET. The “Pac-12 After Dark” tag has been ridiculed by some, but it would be valuable to ESPN. Taken to the extreme, it’s worth asking: Would ESPN now have an influence over which league survives this round of realignment? There is already word circulating that the Pac-12 — in the middle of its own media rights negotiations — might have to agree to a media rights contract that allows Cal, Oregon Stanford and Washington an “out” if approached by another conference. “
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Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News wrote: “But the Pac-12 and ACC are vulnerable to future poaching, the former more than the latter: With a grant-of-rights agreement that extends into the mid-2030s, the ACC is better defended against raids by the Big Ten and SEC; the Pac-12’s grant of rights deal expires in two years. (That said, we believe North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia Tech could be on the Big Ten’s radar in the future based on a combination of academic clout, media value, and recruiting pipelines.) The current situation is unprecedented. Every utterance from the Big Ten about further expansion, whether it’s a pronouncement by commissioner Kevin Warren or an anonymous source, is taken as an immediate threat to the Pac-12’s survival.”
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The San Jose Mercury News’ Jon Wilner wrote: “Most likely, a decision on expansion and the act of signing a new media rights agreement will unfold concurrently. In our estimation, the course of events will follow one of two paths:— The Pac -12 signs an exclusive deal with ESPN, as a 10-school conference, in the next two or three weeks. — The Pac-12 negotiates with multiple bidders on the open market and takes a hard look at expansion in a process that consumes six -two-eight weeks, if not longer.”
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Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Borba included San Diego State SMU, UNLV, Fresno State, Boise State and Houston on his list.
He wrote: “Thus making it vital that the Pac-12 adds at least two more teams, but the optimal number would be six. Getting back to 12 is a must, but the conference needs to be on the offensive side of things for once and get ahead of the Big 12 and ACC when it comes to forming larger mega-conferences. The Big Ten and the SEC are already destined and in position to form their mega-conference, everyone else is playing catch-up. Now granted, there aren’t any teams out there that will bring the value and prestige that the conference lost with USC and UCLA, but more teams equates to more markets, which equals more money.”
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Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren recently told the Action Network’s Brett McMurphy there are a “handful of schools” besides Notre Dame that the conference could potentially add in expansion. Sources indicated that Pac-12 schools Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal were among the schools being considered by the Big Ten.
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Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports writes: “CBS Sports reported last month the Big Ten was evaluating California, Oregon, Stanford and Washington as potential future league members. Rightsholders pushed back on the notion as they did not believe those current Pac-12 schools would bring equal value to the league as USC and UCLA did upon being added. CBS Sports subsequently reported interest had cooled on those four schools; however, adding those four schools would create additional inventory for the Big Ten, which could result in ESPN getting a piece of the action.”
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Ryan Ford of the Detroit Free Press wrote: “Just hours after the Big Ten struck a mega-deal Thursday for its TV rights on CBS, Fox and NBC beginning in 2023 (give or take a season), the University of California Regents realized they might have some say in what conference UCLA competes in, or at least some say over how many 9 am Pacific time kickoffs they can stand.”
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Baylor coach Dave Aranda recently made some headlines when he told the Waco Rotary: “I know that there’s still opportunity in our league (for expansion) and potential suitors,” Aranda said. “I think that’s pretty real and that’s kind of happening right now. There are talks that are happening right now.”
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Sports Illustrated’s Timm Hamm wrote: “If the Big Ten becomes aggressive to initiate the escalator clause in its new deal, it might target teams like Oregon and Washington. And if they jump ship, it would be the equivalent of pulling the plug on a PAC -12 that’s already on life support. That would open the door for the Big 12 to come calling on schools looking for a new home. Schools like Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado. That would be a huge win for a Big 12 that is struggling to remain relevant after the departure of Texas and Oklahoma in 2025.”
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Reach Jeremy Cluff at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Pac-12 realignment, expansion live updates, rumors, burning questions