The Miami Marlins take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Marlins Dodgers prediction and pick.
Sandy Alcantara goes to the mound for the Marlins, while Ryan Pepiot gets to start for the Dodgers.
Sandy Alcantara is the clear favorite for the National League Cy Young Award. He would need to significantly regress in the final month and a half of the season to lose the prestigious prize to someone else. Interestingly enough, that “someone else” would almost certainly be a Los Angeles Dodger. Tony Gonsolin is likely second in the NL Cy Young race, and Julio Urias is very possibly third. The Dodgers, therefore, could boost a teammate’s Cy Young candidacy if they can hammer Alcantara here.
Don’t bet on it happening.
Alcantara has given up more than four earned runs in only one start this year, on May 1 against the Seattle Mariners. He has given up more than three earned runs in only four of his 24 starts. He has given up fewer than three earned runs in 20 of his 24 starts. (That’s right: He has not given up exactly three earned runs in any of his 24 starts in 2022.) Alcantara, over his 24 starts, has allowed a grand total of eight homers — one every three starts — and 43 walks, which is under two walks per start. He leads the National League in innings pitched, averaging just over seven innings per start. He has pitched at least eight innings in 10 starts, and he has an unheard-of total of four complete games. If he pitched 30 years ago, that would be unremarkable, but in today’s age of Major League Baseball, that is a spectacular demonstration of longevity and quality. He has been simply dazzling… and also a workhorse. Jacob deGrom is similarly imposing, but the Mets’ fireballer has not been able to stay healthy. Alcantara is in his own weight class right now.
Ryan Pepiot has made only six starts this year, three since May 27 and two since July 5. Those two most recent starts occurred over the past 11 days. In those two starts, Pepiot allowed seven runs in nine innings. Will he iron out his problems or continue to be mediocre? The sample size is small, so one shouldn’t read too much into the numbers just yet. However, based on what we have seen, Pepiot is likely to give up at least two or three runs in a four- or five-inning outing.
Courtesy of FanDuelhere are the Marlins-Dodgers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Dodgers Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-146)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+122)
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-122)
Why The Marlins Could Cover the Spread
Sandy Alcantara versus Ryan Pepiot is the reason the Marlins can and will win. The Dodgers are obviously a far better team, but if you ever wanted to find a matchup which worked very clearly in the Marlins’ favor, this is it. Alcantara can smother the Dodgers’ bats, and Miami can cobble together three or four runs against Pepiot. That’s all the Cy Young favorite will need.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
Alcantara is great, but the Dodgers’ pitching staff has handcuffed the Marlins all weekend in Dodger Stadium. Alcantara has almost always pitched well in 2022, but his bats have often failed to give him run support. Don’t be shocked if Alcantara pitches brilliantly and loses 2-1 or 3-2.
Final Marlins-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
If ever there was a time to pick the Marlins over the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium, this is the absolute perfect scenario, right here.
Final Marlins-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Marlins +1.5
