The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.
The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.
However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, which are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.
The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on Newcastle’s game against Manchester City.
Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Newcastle v Manchester City game.
Sky Sports – Betting expert ‘Jones Knows’ predicts what will happen with Man City v Newcastle:
“I’ll be seriously surprised if Newcastle have the attacking capabilities to create enough big moments to put pressure on Manchester City.
“I was really disappointed with their quality in their 0-0 draw with Brighton last weekend with Eddie Howe’s side creating an expected goals figure of just 0.22 from five shots on goal.
“Newcastle may have averaged two points per game this year – the most of any calendar year in the club’s Premier League history – but their attacking numbers are seriously underwhelming when digging into the data – surprisingly so.
“Of all the ever-present Premier League teams since Howe’s appointment, no team has created fewer big chances (defined by Opta) than Newcastle (27) and only Wolves and Everton have posted a lower total expected goals than Newcastle’s (35.36). No wonder Howe is hunting for a creative player in this window. A solid defense can only take you so far.
“And, not only has Howe lost every single one of his 10 games as a manager against Pep Guardiola (being the only manager to face him 10+ times and lose every game) his record against the elite teams since moving to Tyneside is pretty wretched . Against Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham with Howe in the dugout, Newcastle have lost 19-2 on aggregate in six matches.
“A Manchester City win without conceding at 11/8 with Sky Bet looks very generous to me.
“Score prediction: Newcastle United 0 Manchester City 2”
As usual, I do respect what the Sky Sports expert has to say and he makes some great points above…however, I do also have a few points to make.
Firstly, when quoting that stat on the six most recent results against the ‘elite teams’, Lewis Jones conveniently ignores the results under Eddie Howe against the other two ‘elite’ clubs, Newcastle outplaying Man Utd and deserving more than the 1-1 draw at St James’ Park. Whilst only two home matches ago, Newcastle absolutely dominated Arsenal and even Arteta admitted it should have been far more than 2-0 to NUFC.
Secondly, since Eddie Howe’s very first game in charge, only one visiting team in fifteen games has scored more than one goal at St James’ Park. That team of course was Man City, winning 4-0 at SJP on 19 December 2021 BUT…
Thirdly, just look at the quality Newcastle United have in defense now, compared to the back four (Murphy, Lascelles, Clark and Ritchie) that played in that defeat to Man City.
Fourthly, indeed, of the eleven who started in that 0-4 defeat, I would say only Wilson and Joelinton are set to start for sure today.
Fifthly, when Newcastle played (and lost 5-0) at Man City on 8 May 2022, this is what the Sky Sports man said / predicted before that game…
“…with such an in-form team on their doorstep in Newcastle, backing the 9/2 with Sky Bet for Eddie Howe’s men to win or draw is just too juicy to ignore.
“Since Newcastle’s 1-0 Premier League away win vs Leeds on January 22, only Liverpool (37) have taken more Premier League points than Newcastle (31). They have taken four more points than Manchester City in this period, albeit having played three games more. If they can defend in their usual strong structure and hit shrewdly on the break, then those taking the 1/8 with Sky Bet on a home win could have an anxious Sunday afternoon.
“SCORE PREDICTION: Manchester City 1 Newcastle United 1
“BETTING ANGLE: Newcastle to win or draw (9/2)”
It is a remarkable change of opinion for Lewis Jones, when you consider what he says before that 8 May 2022 Man City match, which was only five Premier League games ago, and since then Newcastle dominated and beat Arsenal, beat Burnley away, totally dominated Forest (who have gone on to beat West Ham and deserved to win at Everton yesterday) and were worth far more than the 2-0 win, then that battling draw at Brighton.
I accept of course that Newcastle United look far better quality on the defensive side than the attacking one, but under Eddie Howe, there has been significant improvement on that front as well. Since the 4-0 defeat to Man City, only once at home in the Premier League have Newcastle failed to score at home (0-1 v Liverpool).
Not forgetting as well that Eddie Howe has seen his NUFC side win eight of their last nine home matches.
Finally…while Newcastle did lose 4-0 on Man City’s last visit and NUFC have a woeful record at the Etihad, the previous four PL results at SJP between the two clubs read back as Newcastle 3 Man City 4, Newcastle 2 Man City 2, Newcastle 2 Man City 1, Newcastle 0 Man City 1 and Newcastle 1 Man City 1. So Newcastle United have in recent years, generally given Man City a decent game at St James’ Park, picked up points AND scored goals.
In their last 23 competitive matches, Newcastle United have only lost two of them by more than one goal, those two occasions (5-1 at Tottenham and 5-0 at Man City) also the only times NUFC conceded more than one goal.
The visitors will deservedly be big favorites this afternoon and if they aren’t the best team in Europe then they are very close to that BUT I do think Newcastle United have more of a chance of getting something today, than the Sky Sports man and others believe to be the case.
Needless to say but if Newcastle United could score the first goal, that would be massive.