Here are my favorites DraftKings plays for Friday’s 14-game MLB main slate.
For additional picks across all MLB games, find me on Twitter (@Race4thePrize).
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: $250K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Dodgerss vs. Miami Marlins ($7,900) — Although Tyler Anderson’s strikeout numbers are not impressive (19.9% K rate), the Marlins more than make up for this shortcoming with a 28.3% K rate vs. LHP — the worst in baseball. Anderson does not have sexy advanced metrics, but he pitches deep into games and limits hits, runs and home runs. This simple formula has resulted in a 13-2 record. He always lacks upside but always has a safe floor, especially on Friday night.
Other Options — Shane McClanahan ($10,200)
Value
Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels ($6,300) — The 24-year-old former ninth pick overall (2016) is looking to close the 2022 campaign strong after missing much of it due to a shoulder injury. In his three starts since he returned to the big leagues at the beginning of August, Manning has a 3.71 ERA through 17 innings while allowing only one home run. His numbers aren’t great, but they’re decent for a young arm coming back from injury. Two of those matchups were against playoff contenders. On Friday, Manning will be facing the opposite of a playoff contender. The Angels are in the bottom third in wRC+ and have the worst strikeout rate (26.8%) when facing right-handed pitching.
Other Options — Graham Ashcraft ($7,000)
INFIELD
Stud
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals ($5,900) — Paolo Espino ($5,400) will start for the Nats. Against right-handed batters, Espino is allowing a .365 wOBA and .244 ISO. Machado cares about his stats — maybe more than wins. This is a matchup where Machado can pad his stats and maybe win a game, too — not that the latter seems to matter to him. Over his career, Machado has always hit right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching and this season is no different. He has a .399 wOBA, .218 ISO and 162 wRC+ vs. RHP.
Stud
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles ($5,600) — Scopo Jordan Lyles infinitum. This DFS motto means: Target Jordan Lyles Forever. Jordan Lyles ($6,500) is a notorious longball allower. His 1.27 HR/9 this season is a career low — thanks to a reconfigured Camden Yards (0.46 HR/9 at home) — but he still gives up more than his fair share of home runs and to left-handed batters in particular (1.80 HR/9). He is also allowing a .374 wOBA and .214 ISO to lefties. Devers has a .413 wOBA, .302 ISO and 171 wRC+ vs. RHP and 21 of his 25 home runs have come against right-handed pitchers.
Other Options — José Ramírez ($5,700), Paul Goldschmidt ($5,800)
Value
Shea Langeliers, Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners ($2,000) — Who doesn’t like a cheap catcher? Who doesn’t like a cheap catcher vs. a bad pitcher (Marco Gonzalez — 4.87 xFIP)? This isn’t just a cheap punt, Langeliers was the ninth pick in the 2019 draft. Before being called up this week, he had a .376 wOBA and .227 ISO at Triple-A. He has not missed a beat, doubling in his debut and homering in game two.
Value
Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks ($3,900) — After being sent to the Minors, DeJong returned with a hot bat. That bat has cooled off of late, but Friday night’s matchup is an opportunity to reignite the flame. DeJong has a .371 wOBA and 143 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. He’ll face rookie Tommy Henry ($7,100). In 14.1 innings vs. RHB, Henry has a 5.69 xFIP. So far, he’s been lucky, and he’s holding right-handed batters to a .160 AVG thanks to a .150 BABIP. The underlying metrics suggest a meltdown is coming — 40.5% hard contact rate, 50.0% fly ball rate and a 15.3% K rate.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Juan Soto, San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals ($6,100) — Whether it is revenge or simply wanting to put on a show for his former teammates, the expectation is that Juan Soto is going to have a big series against the Nats. Paolo Espino has been better against left-handed batters but he has not been good. This season, Soto has a .423 wOBA, .267 ISO and 174 wRC+ vs. RHP.
Stud
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($6,400) — At home in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, Judge owns a .446 wOBA, .381 ISO and 200 wRC+. Kevin Gausman ($8,200) is a great pitcher but Judge is a great hitter, and so far, Judge has won most of the battles between the two (8-for-20 with two doubles, three home runs and four walks). In fairness to Gausman, most of those stats were accumulated when Gausman was still developing as a pitcher. However, in fairness to Judge, most of those stats were accumulated when Judge was still developing as a hitter.
Other Options — Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)
Value
Cal Stevenson, Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners ($2,000) — Marco Gonzales ($6,100) has been a preferred target in DFS for years. As long as he’s getting work, he’s going to get worked. The Athletics are far from a preferred option, but they’re cheap and in a great matchup. Stevenson may be an unfamiliar name — all of the Athletics are unfamiliar names regardless of whether they’re new or not. Stevenson’s ownership will be microscopic because he plays for Oakland, he’s new to the squad and he’s a lefty facing a lefty. The last part will really turn some DFS players off. However, Marco Gonzalez has never dominated lefties, especially not this season — .368 wOBA and .237 ISO. In the minors, Stevenson always hit lefties well, and so far, he’s 1-for-3 vs. LHP in his one week in the Major Leagues.
Value
LaMonte Wade Jr, San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies ($2,400) — What’s better than a hot hitter rolling into Coors? A hot hitter rolling into Colorado and facing a weak pitcher. José Ureña {$5,300) has a 4.97 xFIP vs. left-handed batters to go along with a .384 wOBA allowed. In his last two games — both against the weak-hitting Diamondbacks — Ureña allowed 14 hits, five home runs and seven earned runs. Wade has a .361 wOBA, .248 ISO and 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Over the last nine games, Wade is on quite the heater — .597 wOBA, .773 ISO and 295 wRC+.
Other Options — Joc Pederson ($3,900)
TEAM TO STACK
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks — As mentioned above, Tommy Henry is living on borrowed time. He has a .150 BABIP, low K rate and sky-high fly ball rate against right-handed batters. On Friday night, he faces a lineup chock-full of right-handed batters, and not just any lineup heavy on right-handed batters, the best lineup of right-handed batters. The Cardinals .346 wOBA and 126 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching are the best marks in baseball. Paul Goldschmidt ($5,800), Nolan Arenado ($5,400) and Dylan Carlson ($3,800) should be the first players jammed into the stack. Paul DeJong ($3,900) and Albert Pujols ($2,000) are cheap options that are also having great seasons vs. LHP. And last but not least, Tyler O’Neill ($4,600) has struggled this season, but he has a .360 wOBA against left-handed pitching.
Other Option — San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: $250K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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