2022 NFL regular-season rushing touchdowns leader betting breakdown

Jonathan Taylor‘s 18 rushing touchdowns last season were the most the NFL has seen since LeGarrette Blount broke the plane just as many times in 2016.

Taylor, of course, had four extra quarters to hit that mark with the introduction of the 17th game last year, and he took advantage by leading the NFL in both attempts (332) and yards (1,811) by sizable margins. The Colts’ running back is a clear favorite (+450) at SI Sportsbook to repeat as the NFL’s rushing touchdown leader in his third season.

You don’t have to go back very far to find the last time a player repeated as the rushing touchdown champ: Derrick Henry did so in 2019 and 2020 and he has the second-best odds to lead the NFL in ground scores this season (+600) for the third time.

Running Back Props Series: Rushing Yards

There’s a clear separation between Taylor and Henry at the top of the market and then an even steeper dropoff to the rest of the contenders, none of whom have accomplished the feat before. Dalvin Cook (+1000) is tied for the third-best odds with Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb and then there’s another clear tier separation after those five.

It’s taken at least 16 rushing touchdowns to lead the league in each of the past five seasons and only Taylor hit that mark in 2021. Will Taylor or Henry once again finish on top or will another take back the title?

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

Michael Conroy/AP

Jonathan Taylor +450
Derrick Henry +600
Dalvin Cook +1000
Joe Mixon +1000
Nick Chubb +1000
James Conner +1400
Najee Harris +1400
Christian McCaffrey +1600
Ezekiel Elliott +1600
Leonard Fournette +1600
Austin Ekeler +1800
Damien Harris +2000
Cam Akers +2200
JK Dobbins +2200
Jalen Hurts +2200
Javonte Williams +2200
Elijah Mitchell +2500
Saquon Barkley +2500
Aaron Jones +2800
Antonio Gibson +2800
David Montgomery +2800
D’Andre Swift +3300
Josh Jacobs +3300

Contenders: Taylor, Henry Are A Head Above The Rest

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (+450)

The Colts were bottom five in passing frequency (52.5%) and top five in rushing attempts per game (29.4) a season ago. Taylor accounted for 19.5 of those rushes and topped Najee Harris for the league lead in attempts by 25 carries, more than a whole game’s worth of work. Taylor also had a monopoly on the touchdown share in Indianapolis—the rest of the team combined for three scores on the ground.

Taylor’s propensity for the end zone was a direct result of his unprecedented work in the red zone. He carried the ball a league-high 85 times inside the 20the most in the NFL since at least 2000. Cut his red zone attempts in half and Taylor would still rank inside the top five in these high-value carries. To his credit, he took full advantage of his work near the goal line by scoring 14 of his 18 touchdowns inside the 20, 13 inside the 10 and 11 inside the five—he led the league in each category.

Compare that with Carson Wentz’s 67 passing attempts inside the red zone and you can see who the coaching staff trusts in scoring position. The Colts’ passing frequency is likely to increase this season Matt Ryan taking over at quarterback.

A potential cut in work doesn’t necessitate fewer touchdowns for Taylor, though. Indianapolis has a better offense with Ryan at the helm, which could allow for even more scoring chances. Taylor’s efficiency may have to improve on fewer carries in order to come close to or match last season’s league-leading touchdown production.

AFC South Over/Under Wins Total: TEN | IND | HOU | JAX | Division Odds

An article Michael Fabiano wrote earlier this offseason titled “Predicting the Year After Scoring 18 Touchdowns: Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, James Conner” is worth keeping in mind when analyzing this market. It tells the story of the high rate of touchdown regression the year after finding the end zone at least 18 times.

Mark Humphrey/AP

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (+600)

Henry led the NFL in touchdowns on a per-game basis last season—his 17-game pace put him on track for more than 21 scores, which would have been a career-high. Even though injuries shortened Henry’s season to eight games, he still finished in a three-way tie for sixth in touchdowns (10). The Titans’ workhorse also finished 10th in carries (219) after he averaged 27.4 rushes per game through the first half of the season.

Consecutive seasons of 300-plus carries finally caught up to Henry in 2021 when he went down with a foot injury. That he returned for the postseason is a good sign for his health this coming season. And, really, all Henry needs to do is hold up in order to finish at or near the top of the league once again. He’s averaged 13.75 touchdowns per season over the last four years, which includes last season’s shortened campaign.

Henry, like Taylor, tends to clean up in the red zone with 13 scores from inside the 20 each season that he led the league in rushing touchdowns. And that’s without nearly as many opportunities as Taylor had near the goal line—Henry was second in red zone attempts (59) in 2020 and seventh (42) in 2019.

Tennessee’s offense is expected to take a step back with the trade of star receiver AJ Brown, but Henry being back in the lineup could be the necessary shot in the arm for the Titans to return to their top-10 efficiency numbers from 2019 and 2020.

Andy Clayton-King/AP

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings (+1000)

Cook’s touchdown frequency crashed last season after he averaged better than one score per game over his last two seasons. The Vikings’ running back missed four games, as he’s been prone to do in his career, and scored just six touchdowns across 13 contests. Still, he carried the ball 249 times, fifth-most in the league. Cook is a volume machine and that volume generally translates to touchdowns.

That was not the case in 2021.

During Cook’s two seasons with double-digit trips to the end zone, he was among the league’s most efficient red zone runners. He punched in 12 of his 13 scores in 2019 from inside the 20 and 13 of his 16 touchdowns in 2020. Cook was one of the most inefficient high-volume rushers in the red zone in 2021. He carried the ball 45 times and managed just five scores on those opportunities.

A reimagined Vikings offense under head coach Kevin O’Connell could open up better rushing lanes for Cook when the field gets tight. For what it’s worth, Sony Michelwho played for O’Connell when he was with the Rams a season ago, tied Cook with 45 carries inside the 20 and managed just four scores.

Quarterback Props Series: Passing Yards | Passing TD | Brady | Herbert | Allen

The expectation in Minnesota is for an uptick in passing frequency with O’Connell calling the offense. The Vikings ranked 18th in passing percentage last season, a rate that could go up and allow Cook to catch more passes but not necessarily repeat his 2020 season when he carried the ball 312 times. Of course, a better offense overall could also lead to Cook getting even more easy opportunities from inside the 10- and five-yard lines and getting back in the range of 15 rushing touchdowns.

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Sleepers: Dobbins Could Impress in First Season Back

JK Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens (+2200)

JK Dobbins tore his ACL about a year ago and missed all of the 2021 season following a promising rookie campaign. He was back on the field at practice this week after being activated from the PUP list and a Week 1 return is a real possibility. That’s good news for Baltimore, which was ravaged by injuries last season, and great news for Dobbins, the lead back for one of the most run-heavy teams in football.

Despite receiving the third-most carries (134) on the team in his first season, Dobbins found paydirt a team-high nine times. That was more than Lamar Jacksonwho ran the ball 159 times and broke 1,000 yards on the ground, and Gus Edwards, who recorded 144 carries. Dobbins ranked third in the NFL, behind only Jackson and Kyler Murrayand first among running backs in yards per carry (6.0) that season.

The opportunities increased as the season went on, but Dobbins’ career began with a two-touchdown game despite carrying the ball just seven times. After he proved his worth with a 100-yard outing in his first game with double-digit carries, Baltimore began to feed his rookie more and more and he delivered with seven touchdowns across the final six games of the season. That was despite tying for second on the team in red zone carries with Edwards (25) behind Jackson (30).

Dobbins running the rock will be a welcome sight for the Ravens after they trot out Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell a season ago. That they finished just outside the top 10 in rushing touchdowns is a testament to the scheme, one that will benefit a better rusher like Dobbins who figures to receive the lion’s share of the work with Edwards’s recovery taking longer than his.

2022 NFL regular-season rushing touchdowns leader betting breakdown

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