| Astros Odds | -130 |
| White Sox Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 9 (+105 / -125) |
| Time | 8:10 pm ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The American League-leading Houston Astros head to Guaranteed Rate Field on Monday for the first of a four-game set with the Chicago White Sox.
Johnny Cueto will take the mound for Chicago looking to keep one of the deadliest lineups in baseball out of rhythm. Moreover, the White Sox hope that Cueto’s arm will enable the club to cut into Tampa Bay’s 2.5-game lead for the final wild card berth.
Jose Urquidy will get the start for the Astros, who have won four straight games and boast a three-game lead over the Yankees atop the American League.
Can the White Sox manage some run support for Cueto Monday?
Houston Astros
Houston’s offense terrorized two soft pitching staffs at home last week, accumulating 39 runs in six games against the Rangers and Athletics.
Johnny Cueto is a more formidable starter than Houston faced in the majority of those contests. Nevertheless, we will likely see the Astros — one of the toughest lineups in baseball — manage a strong output Monday.
Houston has batted to a 109 wRC+ during the last 30 days, and has remained in strong offensive form despite Michael Brantley’s absence.
Jose Urquidy has also been in strong form of late, allowing a 3.26 ERA during his last six outings. Nevertheless, Urquidy has amassed a season-long xERA of 4.52. Moreover, he reports significantly worse splits on the road — 4.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP — compared to his elite marks at home.
Chicago White Sox
After calling out his teammates prior to Chicago’s weekend set against the Tigers, Johnny Cueto now has to walk-the-walk by delivering a strong effort in his start on Monday.
However, Cueto may need some favorable luck for his recent run of strong results to continue against an excellent Astros offense. Cueto has allowed a ton of contact with a WHIP of 1.32 over his last four outings.
He has also allowed 20 hits spanning his last two starts. Furthermore, Cueto has managed just 10 strikeouts throughout his last 28 innings, which translates to a mediocre 3.20 K/9.
Cueto’s 4.09 xERA is more than a full run higher than his actual ERA. In his last handful of starts, Cueto has benefitted from some strong luck not to allow more earned runs.
The White Sox have been in sound offensive form of late, boasting the 9th-best wRC+ (110) in MLB while only striking out in 20.5% of plate appearances during that span.
Andrew Vaughn has been red-hot and should be a player to watch in this contest. Vaughn has hit .344 in his last seven contests and has slugged .486 on the season.
Furthermore, Vaughn has slugged .800 on the first pitch of at-bats this season, while Urquidy has allowed a .720 SLG rate on the first pitch of at-bats — the fourth worst mark among qualified starters.
Luis Robert could possibly make his return to the lineup on Monday after suffering a sprained wrist last week. Confirmation regarding Robert’s return would be noteworthy should the current lines hold.
Astros vs. White Sox Pick
Houston features one of the most potent offensive lineups in the league. The Astros are ideal candidates to hang some crooked numbers in this spot against Cueto.
Cueto has not been almost as strong as his surface-level numbers suggest, and his low strikeout rate surely could be a big concern versus Houston.
Chicago has managed steady offensive results over the last 30 days, and I believe its lineup could be in a good buy-low position down the stretch of this season.
The White Sox could realistically manage a strong output from Urquidy. Given that both lineups will face less-than-elite starters, there is value on the game total of 8.5 (-110).
Andrew Vaughn is in strong contention to continue his excellent run of play in this spot as well, and I see value backing him to manage over 1.5 bases in this contest at +125.
Picks: Over 8.5 (Play to -115) · Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 Bases (+125, play to +115)
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