This article originally appeared on MLB.com: Here are 5 wise wagers for this weekend’s games
A few games feature just the right pitching matchups to lead us towards backing some of the game totals available on DraftKings Sportsbook this weekend.
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SATURDAY
Total over 9 runs -110
Kutter Crawford dealt last time he saw the Yankees — but the over on Saturday’s total still hit in that 11-run contest. Of course, that’s far from an anomaly for Red Sox-Yankees matchups.
In 11 meetings this season, they’ve combined for 10-plus runs seven times. Only once has the under hit in the five games these two teams have played at Fenway Park in 2022 — funnily enough, that one exception was Friday’s contest.
Frankie Montas being on the mound might lead some towards favoring the under, but he enters Fenway Park fresh off a rough Yankees debut. Also, the right-hander has a 6.11 road ERA this season, and quite a few of these Boston hitters have good career numbers against him.
Adolis García over 1.5 total bases +115
García has been rolling lately, hitting the over on this prop in four of his last six games played. He’s only logged two extra-base hits during that span, but another could come on Saturday.
García is 6-for-22 (.273) with two doubles and a home run in 24 plate appearances against Marco Gonzales. Although the Texas outfielder only has a .125 ISO against left-handed pitching since mid-July, he’s posted a 22.2% line-drive rate and 33.3% hard-contact rate during that stretch. Gonzales has struggled against righty bats over his last four starts, allowing four home runs and eight doubles.
SUNDAY
Phillies +115
The Phillies are one of three teams over .500 as moneyline underdogs on the road. One of the others is their Sunday opponent, who is a crisp 36-15 when favored at home in 2022. But anytime Philadelphia is an underdog with Zach Wheeler on the mound, the Phillies are in play — especially with how the right-hander has come out of the break. Through four starts and 100 batters faced, Wheeler has posted a 1.67 ERA while opponents have registered a .574 OPS against him.
The Mets have been one of the better teams against right-handed pitching against the break, but so have the Phillies, who outrank New York in ISO against righties since mid-July. Chris Bassitt makes for a tough matchup, and he’s been better at home than on the road, but he’s only 3-5 at Citi Field. Overall, the Mets are only 6-5 in Bassitt’s home starts this season.
Total under 8 runs -105
Both Logan Gilbert and Martín Pérez got roughed up last time out. In fact, Gilbert has seen his ERA balloon by almost a full run over his last two starts. But he’s faced the Yankees in consecutive appearances, and Pérez just took on Houston. The offenses backing them on Sunday aren’t nearly as potent as those two lineups.
These two starters have seen their Sunday opponents a fair amount this season, and they’ve dealt in every opportunity. While the under of Sunday’s total has not hit in either of Pérez’s two starts vs. Seattle this season, he’s given up three runs over 12 innings vs. the Mariners. Also, the under on Sunday’s total is 3-0 in Gilbert starts vs. the Rangers — largely thanks to the right-hander holding Texas to two runs over 17 2/3 innings.
Total over 12.5 -115
Last time the Diamondbacks visited Coors Field, the over on Sunday’s total hit only once in three contests. However, Arizona and Colorado flirted with the over on this mark in the other two games of that series — a common occurrence when these two meet. In their last 10 run-ins before this series, the over went 6-3-1 in Arizona-Colorado contests. Seven of those contests were double-digit scoring affairs, and that’s likely to be the case with Tommy Henry and Ryan Feltner squaring off.
Henry bounced back from a tough MLB debut vs. the Guardians, but his second big league start came vs. Pittsburgh — a much easier lineup to navigate. Colorado remains one of the toughest opponents on left-handed pitching. Plus, Henry has given up a lot of fly balls in the early going (48.6%).
Arizona hasn’t been as tough on righties of late, but that’s undoubtedly their preferred matchup. More importantly, the over on Sunday’s total has hit in five of Feltner’s nine starts, including two of his three starts at Coors Field.
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