Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Tennessee Titans.
Tennessee Titans (+3000 to win the Super Bowl, BetMGM)
2021 Record: 12-5 (1st in AFC South)
The Titans finished last season as the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but are expected to regress quite a bit this year with Super bowl odds of +3000.
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Although head coach Mike Vrabel’s team tied for the NFL’s second-best record, they were 6-2 in one-score games last year and possessed the league’s 20th-best team DVOA, per footballoutsiders.com. Star running-back Derrick Henry, along with a top-half defense, returned to the fold this season, but Tennessee brings an inexperienced receiver core after two key transactions. GM Jon Robinson opted to trade wideout AJ Brown to the Eagles before going out and acquiring Robert Woods from the Rams. Further, veteran Julio Jones also left in favor of the Bucs.
Still, this is a Titans team that hasn’t posted a losing year since 2015 and has recorded two straight seasons of 11+ wins.
Titans offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Signed RB’s Dontrell Hilliard and Trenton Cannon, K Randy Bullock, TE Austin Hooper, S AJ Moore, OT Jamarco Jones
- Re-signed LB Ola Adeniyi, C Ben Jones, TE Geoff Swaim and CB Buster Skrine
- Acquired Los Angeles Rams WR Robert Woods
- Drafted Arkansas WR Treylon Burks (No. 18), Auburn CB Roger McCreary (No. 35), Ohio State OT Nicholas Petit-Frere (No. 69), Liberty QB Malik Willis (No. 86), Michigan RB Hassan Haskins (No. 131), Maryland TE Chigoziem Okonkwo (No. 143), UCLA WR Kyle Philips (No. 163), Tennessee CB Theo Jackson (No. 204), Mississippi LB Chance Campbell (No. 219)
Titans 2022 Schedule
Week 1: vs. New York Giants
Week 2: at Buffalo Bills
Week 3: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Week 4: at Indianapolis Colts
Week 5: at Washington Commanders
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 8: at Houston Texans
Week 9: at Kansas City Chiefs
Week 10: vs. Denver Broncos
Week 11: at Green Bay Packers
Week 12: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 13: at Philadelphia Eagles
Week 14: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 15: at Los Angeles Chargers
Week 16: vs. Houston Texans
Week 17: vs. Dallas Cowboys
Week 18: at Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL Betting Lines: Titans Win Total O/U
9.5 Wins (FanDuel)
Like most in the NFL betting ecosystem, I expect the Titans are in for a bit of regression and may very well miss out on the playoffs.
Although they return a defense that ranked 12th in team DVOA last season, they play nine games this year against teams that ranked in the top-half of last year’s offensive DVOA rankings, per footballoutsiders.com. Additionally, six of those nine games come away from home, four of which are against teams that were classified as a top-10 offense last season.
If the reverse were true and those games came at home, I would maybe be more optimistic about the Titans. Over the last three seasons, Tennessee is 16-9 at home and won 12 of 17 at home over the previous two years. However, the last two seasons also saw Tennessee go 11-5 on the road with seven of those wins coming by six or fewer points. Just on that fact alone, I would expect the Titans’ luck to change slightly.
That said, there is one case for optimism. This year, the Titans played 10 games against teams that ranked in the bottom half of rushing defense last season. Assuming Derrick Henry returns to full-health after his injury and sustains his level of production bettors have grown accustomed to, he can easily carry this team to another double-digit win season.
However, the schedule once again does the Titans no favors based on that positive indicator. Of those 10 games, only four came at home where Tennessee is a far superior team.
Add in that Vrabel lost two top-tier wide receivers and I question how Tennessee’s offense will be dynamic enough to prevent teams from stacking the box and forcing the ball out wide. For those reasons, back the under on the Titans win total.
Titans O/U 9.5 Wins: The Pick
Under 9.5 Wins (Play at -135 or better)
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Titans to Make the Playoffs – “No” (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Let’s continue with the negative expectations for the Titans shall we?
Truth be told, this isn’t so much a bet against the Titans as it is a bet on a number of improving teams. Just last season, here is a list of teams that *didn’t* make the playoffs – Colts, Dolphins, Chargers, Browns, Ravens, Broncos.
I personally have the Colts winning the AFC South, which would mean Tennessee’s path into the post-season would be a wild card spot. And that’s an awfully steep mountain to climb given the quality of competition in the AFC. Although some of the teams listed above are bound to disappoint, I would expect a number to improve off last season and find their way into the playoffs.
Plus, I haven’t even mentioned teams like the Chiefs, Bengals, Raiders and Patriots that are still top-tier squads in the conference.
Given virtually all of Tennessee’s most difficult games come away from home, I expect they’ll struggle to rack up enough wins to compete with teams that have much easier schedules. Give me Tennessee to miss the playoffs up to -125.
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