The Rangers are set to host the Seattle Mariners today in the first matchup of a three-game set at Globe Life Park. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Mariners-Rangers prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Seattle is currently in line to make the playoffs as a wild card team, sitting in second in the AL West at 61-52 with wins in six of its last 10 games. The Rangers are a different story, having won only three of their last 10 contests. They’re third place in the division at 49-62, and trailing the Tampa Bay Rays by 9 1/2 games for the final American League wild-card spot, they’ll need nothing short of a miracle to become a factor in the playoff hunt.
The Mariners have dominated the season series, winning 11 of the 13 matchups between the teams this year.
Here are the Mariners-Rangers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Rangers Odds
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+112)
Texas Rangers: +1.5 (-134)
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
Amid a disappointing season for the Rangers, their struggles have been further amplified when going up against Seattle. The Mariners have won the last eight meetings between the teams, and have been fairly impressive against the other teams within their division. Taking away their games against the Houston Astros, who boast the best record in the American League, Seattle is 23-12 against AL West opponents this year.
The Mariners also appear to have a substantial advantage in the starting pitching department, with rookie standout George Kirby set to take the mound. Kirby has a 3.40 ERA, the third-lowest among rookie pitchers with at least 10 starts and by far the lowest of first-year players who have started 15 or more games. He’s gotten better with experience at the big league level, too, with his last loss coming on June 27. He posted a 2.21 ERA with a .231 opponent’s batting average in July and allowed just one run while striking out eight batters in six innings during a win over the Los Angeles Angels last week.
Meanwhile, Josh Sborz’s performance so far in 2022 does little to inspire optimism for Texas backers. Sborz has a 5.87 ERA with opponents batting .271 against him this season. Albeit, the sample size is pretty small at just 15 1/3 innings — all of which have come in relief. The Rangers do rank 11th in the MLB with a 3.73 bullpen ERA, but with this being Sborz’s first career start at the MLB level, a worn-out relief staff that has pitched 17 1/3 innings over their last four games will be called upon to play a significant role.
Seattle has had some issues at the plate since the All-Star break, but first baseman Ty France has been a bright spot. His .824 OPS over the last month ranks 19th in the American League. Centerfielder Julio Rodriguez’s 13 RBI in this stretch are tied for the 18th-most in the league, while second baseman Adam Frazier is tied for 22nd with 12 runs scored.
Why The Rangers Could Cover The Spread
Even with Texas losing its last eight games against Seattle, it’s worth noting that the run differential has only been 14, while five of these contests were decided by only one run. This seems to indicate that, despite all of the Rangers’ problems, taking them on a +1.5 run line isn’t a terrible play. Their minus-three run differential for the season is the best of any team with a losing record by 17 runs and makes the fact that they’re 13 games below .500 even more confounding.
With the Rangers facing an uphill battle when it comes to pitching, there is some optimism to be gleaned from the Mariners’ recent struggles at the plate. Since the All-Star break, Seattle ranks 25th or worst in the MLB in runs scored, OPS, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage, with its .206 batting average ranking dead last in all of baseball. By comparison, Texas ranks in the top 20 in each of these categories during this stretch.
Final Mariners-Rangers Prediction & Pick
Even with the Rangers holding what could be viewed as a slight advantage on offense, at least over the past month, it’s difficult to feel comfortable about them being competitive in this matchup — especially considering their abysmal 24-42 record against teams above .500, which is the third-worst in the American League. The Mariners’ overall issues on offense are concerning when taking them to cover 1 1/2 runs, but they still have productive weapons that can change the game at the plate. This, combined with the Rangers’ recent heavy use of their bullpen, makes Seattle on the run line the play here.
Final Mariners-Rangers Prediction & Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+112)
