After six seasons as arguably the top playmaker on one of the best offenses in the NFL, Hill shocked many by asking for a trade away from the Kansas City Chiefs and landing with the Miami Dolphins. He then signed a four-year deal for $120 million ($73 million guaranteed) to become the highest-paid offensive player in the league that is not a quarterback.
Hill was targeted a whopping 159 times last season and had a career-high 111 receptions. His yards and touchdowns (1,239, nine touchdowns) were down from his 2020 totals (1,276 yards, 15 touchdowns) and his 2018 numbers (1,479 yards, 12 touchdowns). Hill, however, is still a pro bowl wide receiver and one of the top threats in the game.
2021 season statistics & fantasy finish
Stats: 111 receptions for 1239 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. He averaged 11.2 and a shade under 73 yards per game.
Fantasy: Hill had 296.5 fantasy points last season for an average of 17.4 points per game in the PPR league. In a standard scoring league he had 185.5 points and 10.9 points per game.
Dolphins offseason moves
The Dolphins hope that upgrades on the offensive line will give Tua Tagovailoa more time to get the ball downfield to Hill. Miami gave Terron Armstead a five-year, $87.5 million contract to be the new left tackle and added Connor Williams to solidify the left side. Because of the Hill trade, the Dolphins did not have a draft pick until the third round.
2022 best case scenario
Tagovailoa stays upright and Hill’s boastful statements about his accuracy being better than Patrick Mahomes turn out to be true. The combination of Hill and Jaylen Waddle reminds Dolphin old-head fans of the Mark Clayton/Mark Duper tandem of the 1980s. If Tagovailoa can make improvements under new coach Mike McDaniel, Hill will get plenty of targets and a chance to get close to his adjusted five-year average of 87 receptions and 1265 yards and 10 touchdowns.
2022 worst case scenario
Tagovailoa’s injury history continues down the wrong path and Hill’s numbers suffer forcing McDaniel to get real creative. Teddy Bridgewater is a solid backup, but Hill won’t get too many deep balls from him.
2022 prediction
Hill will be the Dolphins WR1 and they will force the ball to him in order to justify that big contract. He will make some plays and have some big games. Consistency was becoming an issue in Kansas City — he had seven games with less than 50 yards receiving — so hopefully a new environment will motivate Hill to stay in the top 10-20 range.