In this mailbag: Ranking injury risk vs. ADP, Cam Akers’ 2022 outlook and a checkup on Chris Godwin!
Inside Injuries was founded by an orthopedic radiologist, Dr. Anand Lalaji (aka Dr. A), who contributes to all of the injury writeups. Dr. A team of doctors and data scientists put together to create an algorithm to evaluate the impact that injuries have on a player. This algorithm powers all of Inside Injuries’ analysis and determines each player’s Injury Risk, Health Performance Factor (the level a player is expected to perform at if they return too soon, for example) and Optimal Recovery Time. This information is based on years of medical experience and historical injury research and has proven to be incredibly accurate in determining how injuries will impact a player’s performance and risk of future injuries.
A quick description of terms from our injury algorithm:
- IRC = Injury Risk Category (Low, Elevated, High) — the overall likelihood a player will get injured
- HPF = Health Performance Factor (Peak, Above Average, Below Average, Poor) — our metric to predict player performance
- ORT = Optimal Recovery Time — the amount of time a player needs to fully recover from an injury (not the same as how much time they will actually miss)
Is there any data that we can use to understand what Chris Godwin is trying to do? Is it even possible to come back from an ACL and MCL repair in only seven months? Seems crazy. Any precedent on this? Any info on Godwin’s health outlook from your POV? — Angelo S.
There are a few general guidelines and rules of thumb when evaluating wide receivers who are coming back from ACL injuries:
- The younger the athlete is, the better chance they have to return to their pre-injury level
- In the first year back they are at a much higher risk of injury — not just the knee, but the surrounding muscles (hamstring, quad, groin)
- Expect a drop in performance in the first season back, but many return to their pre-injury level in the second season
- When there is additional damage (which is the case with Godwin, as he also tore the MCL), the recovery typically takes longer, and that means more time to get back to 100%
- The risk of re-injury is significantly higher in the first nine months following surgery, so playing before then is a huge risk
So what does all of this mean for Chris Godwin? He underwent surgery almost exactly seven months ago and just stepped foot on the practice field for the first time. Godwin is wearing a brace on his right knee. He says he feels great, and his doctors believe he has made enough progress to ramp up his activity level. I’m OK with all of this, but the Bucs need to bring him along slowly.
Playing in September would be a huge risk as he won’t hit the nine-month mark until Week 5. Godwin seems to be right where he needs to be, he just shouldn’t play in a game until October. It’s not just his knee that is at risk; we often see players suffer a muscular strain soon after returning. Getting strength back in the legs is a crucial part of rehab, and it can take over a year for that to happen. There’s also the mental component — trusting that knee again takes a while. A slow first half should be expected, and then Godwin could be a WR1 again in the final couple of months of the season.
Do you expect Cam Akers to be 10/10 effective? — Ryan F.
Akers is barely a year removed from the torn Achilles, so I don’t think it’s fair to compare him to his pre-injury self just yet (and realistically it won’t ever be). Because of this I’d put his projected effectiveness this season at a 7/10. His quick return last year was incredible, but it was clear he wasn’t healthy enough and his body hadn’t had enough time to recover to be effective. Being healthy enough to play isn’t the same as being healthy enough to perform at a high level.
While I am expecting a much better Cam Akers on the field in 2022, his explosiveness will still be lacking. Getting power back following an Achilles tendon tear is challenging, especially for a running back who needs this to be effective. We haven’t really seen any NFL running backs come back from a torn Achilles and perform at an elite level in the years following the injury. Of course, surgical techniques are improving and this isn’t the same career-threatening injury it once was, but it is still career-altering for a majority of athletes, especially running backs. Akers should have a role, but he can’t be relied upon as a workhorse or RB1 option.
Who’s your biggest concern looking at ADP vs high risk for injury? – Eric F.
Here are a few players at each position who are just too risky at their current ADP:
Matthew Stafford — He’s already dealing with an elbow injury that seems to be more serious than the Rams want to let on. First it was described as tendinitis, then it was reported as a rare injury for a QB (I really hope it isn’t an issue with the UCL). Either way, it’s concerning. At this point, Stafford doesn’t seem like a reliable QB1, and there are plenty of QBs with a much lower health risk.
Dalvin Cook — Cook keeps dislocating his shoulder and has a torn labrum that hasn’t been surgically repaired. That means the joint is unstable, and with each dislocation it’s going to get worse and worse.
Derrick Henry — It’s not just the Jones fracture he suffered last season. Henry is approaching the age where running backs experience a significant drop in performance (he’s 28). It’s time for the Titans to manage their workload better than they have in the past.
Chris Godwin — We already went into detail on his injury, and he clearly isn’t worth a pick at his current ADP in the 50s.
Amari Cooper — He already tweaked his ankle at training camp, an injury he battled last season. Cooper is back at practice, but he has quite a few injuries in recent years. That includes multiple hamstring strains. He’s a boom-or-bust option with a high injury risk, and that’s something I don’t want any part of.
George Kittle — I know it’s tempting to take Kittle given how shallow the TE position is, but he now has an extensive injury history that includes a recent undisclosed lower body injury and a calf strain late last season. He has the talent to be the league’s top tight end, but health isn’t on his side.
Dalvin Cook — can the guy catch a break and stay healthy for a season? How serious was the hand injury for him and Alexander Mattison? Is Kene Nwangwu someone the Vikings can trust to handle the workload if needed? — Terry J.
Cook and Mattison both quickly returned to practice following their hand injuries, and I’m not concerned about them going forward. I am worried about Cook’s overall health, though. The biggest red flag is his shoulder. Cook had issues dating back to college and underwent surgery while at FSU. Last season he dislocated it multiple times, which led to a torn labrum. This is a thick piece of tissue that attaches to the rim of the shoulder and helps to keep the ball-and-socket joint in place. When the joint dislocates it can lead to damage such as a torn labrum. Then once the labrum is torn, dislocations become more common. The injury can then get worse and worse until surgery to repair the tear.
Despite multiple shoulder dislocations last season, Cook did not undergo surgery in the offseason. That leaves him vulnerable to another dislocation and even more damage in the shoulder. Right now his Injury Risk is at 29%, which is very high. Alexander Mattison is still the handcuff to target if you’re rostering Cook.
What’s the status of Travis Etienne and James Robinson in terms of their respective injuries? —Ethan H.
Etienne missed his entire rookie season due to a Lisfranc injury that required surgery. He has now had a full year to recover, and his Injury Risk is back at Low. It’s a tough injury as a running back, but he should be healthy enough to serve as the Jaguars feature back. Similar to an Achilles injury, getting burst back is the most challenging part about coming back from a Lisfranc injury. Etienne might get off to a slightly slower start than expected, but I could see him finishing as a solid RB2.
I have much higher expectations for Etienne than Robinson this season. Robinson can’t be relied upon this year as he’s just seven months removed from Achilles surgery. We saw what happened with Cam Akers last season. He made an incredibly quick return to the field, but he clearly wasn’t healthy enough to perform at a high level. I’m expecting the same from Robinson in 2022. His risk of injury also remains high. I wouldn’t bother drafting Robinson, no matter how far he falls. Robinson seems close to a return but it isn’t a guarantee that he will be available in September.
(Top photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports)
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