2022 Stats
Total yards per game: 333.8 (18th)
Plays per game: 59.7 (25th)
Pass attempts + Sacks per game: 32.35 (26th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.02 (15th)
Rush attempts per game: 27.4 (14th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.10 (29th)
Coaching Staff
Head coach Dennis Allen enters his second season as the face of the franchise after spending the previous seven seasons as the defensive coordinator for the Saints. Longtime offensive assistant Pete Carmichael survived the departure of the Sean Payton regime two years ago and enters his 15th season as the offensive coordinator while the team welcomes newcomer Joe Woods to the staff to serve as defensive coordinator.
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Woods previously held the same position for the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns and brings 30 years of defensive coaching experience, most of which was spent working with the secondary. It will be up to Carmichael and Allen to reignite the scoring flame previously held by Payton’s Saints in 2023 after consecutive seasons in the bottom half of the league in points per game.
Passing Game
QB: Derek Carr, Jameis Winston
WR: Chris Olave, Bryan Edwards
WR: Michael Thomas, AT Perry
WR: Rashid Shaheed, Tre’Quan Smith
TE: Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, Taysom Hill
Derek Carr’s public falling out with the coaching staff in Las Vegas sparked the first change of scenery of his career. After being selected with the No. 36 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, Carr would spend the next nine seasons at the helm of the Raiders’ offense before signing with the Saints in the 2023 free agent window. What he has lacked in efficiency metrics over the previous three seasons (his 94.0 passer rating ranks 17th and his 65.7 completion percentage ranks 19th during that time) he has more than made up for with downfield acumen and a knack for the end zone. His 7.6 yards per attempt and 74 passing touchdowns both ranked in the top 12 at the position in that span.
Michael Thomas’ seven-year career started with a bang after he ripped off four consecutive seasons of 1,100 or more receiving yards, scoring 32 touchdowns during that time. The following three seasons were a different story altogether as he managed to play in just 10 of a potential 49 games, dealing with recurring ankle, hamstring and toe injuries along the way. Now reportedly healthy for the first time since the 2019 season, Thomas will have to contend with promising second-year wide receiver Chris Olave for the title of team alpha.
Olave surged onto the scene in his rookie campaign, passing the 1,000-yard receiving threshold and finding the end zone on four occasions. Not only that, his efficiency metrics ranked in the top 10 of all rookie wide receivers over the previous five seasons. His elite 29.3% targets per route run rate ranked 10th at the position in 2023, hinting at further untapped upside should his 88.1% route participation rate increase in his second professional season. It will be interesting to see how his solid 20.4% red zone target share from a season ago adjusts to the presence of Thomas where it matters most.
Up-and-coming speedster Rashid Shaheed should occupy the third wide receiver spot for the Saints after the departure of Jarvis Landry this offseason. Signed to the team as an undrafted free agent to handle punt returns, Shaheed showcased his top-end speed when given the opportunity in 2022, reaching a blistering 21.13 miles per hour on a touchdown in Week 7. Shaheed should do well in stretching the field in the vertical in addition to manipulating opposing safeties in 2023. Although not likely to provide consistent production, his downfield role, elite speed and abilities with the ball in his hands should provide the potential for spike weeks in a best ball format.
The tight end room saw significant turnover with the departure of Adam Trautman and the addition of Foster Moreau, the latter of whom played with Carr as a member of the Raiders for the first four seasons of his career. The team re-signed breakout tight end Juwan Johnson this offseason, who should serve as the primary pass-catching tight end to start the season considering a robust 29.8% slot snap rate (seventh), 92nd percentile speed and relatively deep average depth of target. (9.4, sixth) in 2022.
Rounding out the pass-catching corps is perennial fantasy enigma Taysom Hill. Listed at tight end on the team’s official depth chart, Hill continues to play one of the most interesting roles of any skill position player in the league. Carmichael has aligned Hill inline, in the slot, out wide, at fullback, at running back and at quarterback over the previous three seasons and we should expect more of the same from the league’s mega-gadget. It’s foolish to expect more than a handful of opportunities for Hill in most weeks, but his unique role and ability to contribute in numerous ways keeps his value sky-high in best ball formats.
Running Game
RB: Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller
OL (LR): Trevor Penning, Andrus Peat, Erik McCoy, Cesar Ruiz, Ryan Ramczyk
Alvin Kamara returns to the Saints for his seventh professional season with significant baggage after an incident at a Las Vegas nightclub during the Pro Bowl festivities in 2022. Kamara recently pleaded no contest to a reduced charge of breach of peace but is still vulnerable to league discipline under the personal conduct policy.
His underlying efficiency metrics took a significant hit in 2022 as he handled the largest snap rate of his career at 80.1%, which led the league in snap rate share at the position. The team’s offseason additions of Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller should allow Kamara to settle back into a more manageable 60 to 70% snap rate range, a range that remained consistent during the preceding four seasons.
Williams, fresh off a league-leading 17-touchdown season in Detroit, matches the between-the-tackles grinder archetype previously held by Mark Ingram in New Orleans. I would expect Williams to occupy the primary early-down grinder and short-yardage roles for the Saints in 2023, leaving Kamara free to operate in a more dynamic role.
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The Saints sunk significant draft capital into former TCU running back Kendre Miller this offseason. The 5′ 11″, 215-pound back never caught more than 16 passes in any of his three collegiate seasons and held a middling 52nd percentile college dominator score. Even with the third-round draft capital, it’s difficult to see Miller serving as more than a suspension and injury insurance piece in his rookie season, considering the other backs on the roster.
Win Total
The Saints have managed middling seasons in each of the previous two campaigns, finishing with records of 9-8 and 7-10 in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Boosting their Vegas win total in 2023 is their presence in arguably the league’s weakest division, joined by the Brady-less Buccaneers, the Falcons and the rebuilding Panthers. Their current win total of 9.5 stands atop the NFC South, a full 1.5-games ahead of the Falcons. That puts them tied with the Cowboys, Jaguars, Lions, Chargers, Jets, Dolphins and Browns for the seventh-highest win total heading into the new season. While it is difficult to argue with the improvements expected on the offensive side of the ball, the questionable offensive line and declining defense make their win total a difficult sell if hunting for value in current betting markets.