Here’s a deep dive on Brandon Sproat, the Mets’ No. 56 picks in the 2023 MLB Draft…
Background
Sproat, about to turn 23, was a highly recruited high school prospect who elected to attend the University of Florida after turning down signing with the Texas Rangers in the seventh round of the 2019 MLB Draft. His first season he only got into four games and pitched six games as the season was canceled by COVID-19. In 2021 he threw only 21.2 innings with a 6.65 ERA.
He seemed to be putting it all together in 2022 when he posted a 3.41 ERA in 89.2 innings across 17 appearances (16 starts). If you feel you know the name, it’s because you probably do. The Mets selected Sproat after that strong season in the third round and they could not come to an agreement on a signing bonus.
Sproat returned to Florida for his senior season and it was a bit of a mixed bag. The ERA went up, largely due to his home runs allowed spiking from 5 to 15. His walk rate also increased from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 10.3 percent in 2023. The good? His hits-per-nine rate dropped from 8.4 to 7.4 and the strikeout rate jumped up significantly from 21.5 percent to 28.8 percent.
Leading into the 2023 MLB Draft, Sproat was ranked No. 54 by MLB Pipeline, No. 48 by Baseball America, No. 38 by Keith Law at The Athletic and No. 56 by Kiley McDaniel at ESPN. As a fourth-year senior, this could end up an under-slot signing.
Scouting Report
Sproat has always thrown hard. His fastball velocity will average 96-98 mph and touch 101. He does need some work on the shape of the pitch as it can get hit more than it should at that velocity at times. He has an above average slider that he needs to find more consistency with.
His change-up took a big step forward this year and some think it could end up being his best secondary offering in the future. He also has a fourth pitch, a curveball that is lagging behind the other two secondaries and could potentially get scratched in pro ball.
He must work on both his control and his command. Right now, he is a little more control (throwing strikes) over command (throwing good strikes) and that could have been a factor in him giving up more home runs than in 2022.
Future
Sproat has a wide range of potential outcomes. He feels like a perfect type of pitcher to get into the Mets new pitching lab in St. Lucie and get him on the pitching development path that is being led by Eric Jagers and his staff. He has the profile to be the exact type of prospect that can show the synergy they are trying to create between scouting, analytics and player development.
If they can put the package together and improve his control and command, he has the potential to be a mid-rotation starter. If that does not improve those parts of his game, there is a risk that he ends up a late-inning reliever with power stuff.
As a near 23-year-old, Sproat could potentially move quicker than even your average college arm. You may see the organization be a little more aggressive with his movement throughout the minors in his first full pro season in 2024. At this stage he has some of the best pure stuff in the Mets organization, maybe only behind Blade Tidwell.
He should immediately rank as one of the Mets top pitching prospects in a system that sorely needs to add pitching. I expect Sproat to be the first of plenty of pitchers the Mets will add in the remainder of the 2023 MLB Draft.