It’s July 4, and that means Joey Chestnut will be eating a disgusting amount of hot dogs.
Chestnut has become a niche celebrity after dominating the competitive eating world the past couple decades. Chestnut has won 15 of the last 16 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contests. You wouldn’t think there could be a dynasty in the competitive eating world, but here we are.
And since the event is loosely part of the sports world, sportsbooks offer odds on it. Chestnut is a massive -5000 favorite at BetMGM to win the contest again. That means a bettor would need to wager $5000 to win $100, and yet, 83.1% of the money wagered on the event at BetMGM is on Chestnut. On the women’s side, eight-time champion Miki Sudo is also -5000.
If you have a great tip on a long shot in either the men’s or women’s hot dog eating event, you’ve been studying it way too much.
The more popular bet for the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is the over/under on amount of hot dogs eaten by Chestnut or Sudo. The total for Chestnut is 72.5. For Sudo, it’s 43.5. Last year Chestnut ate 63 but he was thrown off by a protester, whom Chestnut put in a chokehold. Yes, that happened. Sudo ate 40 last year. Chestnut’s record is 76.
Whether you bet on the event or not, just don’t try to match Chestnut’s hot dog total this holiday.
Here’s a first look at the sports betting slate Tuesday:
Full day of MLB
There’s a 15-game slate in Major League Baseball and it starts early. The Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds and, as has become tradition on July 4. The game gets going at 11:05 am in Washington. The Reds are slightly -115 favourites.
Most of the games Tuesday take place in the afternoon. One of the better matchups comes in the Bronx, as the New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles. The Yankees had a dramatic comeback win Monday, and maybe that sparks something for them. The Yankees are -120 favorites.
Whenever Ohtani is pitching, it’s the marquee event on the baseball schedule. Ohtani, the runaway favorite to win AL MVP, faces the San Diego Padres on Tuesday. The Los Angeles Angels are +110 underdogs against the Padres, who will have Joe Musgrove on the mound. It’s rare to see the Angels as an underdog when Ohtani starts, but Mike Trout left Monday’s game with a wrist injury. If he misses time, that’s a big downgrade for the Angels.
What’s the best bet?
It seems wrong to bet against the Nationals on July 4, but I’ll take the Reds as a small favorite. Cincinnati has cooled off a bit since its 12-game winning streak, but the Reds are still the better team in this matchup.