The San Francisco Giants take on the San Diego Padres. Check out our MLB odds series for our Giants Padres prediction and pick.
Alex Wood goes to the mound for the Giants, while Blake Snell gets the call for the Padres.
Alex Wood has a 4.42 ERA. He pitched to a 1.65 ERA in a brilliant month of July, bouncing back from a very rough start to his season. However, in his most recent start on Aug. 2, he gave up six runs in 5 1/3 innings. The key point here is that Wood’s rough outing last week came against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the hottest team in baseball. The Dodgers have lost just five games since July 1. Should a pitcher be downgraded in an overall evaluation because he couldn’t solve the 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers at the height of their powers? Wood has been mediocre for most of the year, but in his non-Dodger starts over the past five weeks, he has been really good. This is a fascinating game to pick precisely because of Wood’s pitching profile. It doesn’t lead to easy answers. One also has to wonder if the new-look Padres, after running into the very same Dodger buzzsaw over the weekend, will easily bounce back or will continue to be in a funk.
Blake Snell’s ERA at the end of June was 5.60. He was having a miserable year and was not coming close to matching the standard he set with the Rays in 2020, when he led them to the doorstep of a first World Series championship. Then, in July, everything changed. Snell posted a 2.81 ERA for that particular month. In his first start of August, he held the Rockies to one run in six innings. He has shaved 1.44 runs off his ERA, which now stands at 4.16. It’s hard to bet against Blake Snell right now.
Courtesy of FanDuelhere are the Giants-Padres MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Giants-Padres Odds
San Francisco Giants: +1.5 (-130)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+108)
Over: 7.5 (-112)
Under: 7.5 (-108)
Why The Giants Could Cover the Spread
The Giants are a desperate team. They are several games back in the National League wild card race. They have to get hot soon and stay hot for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, the new-look Padres, despite having Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury in their lineup, haven’t looked convincing. The Dodgers outscored them 20-4 in a three-game sweep over the weekend. The Padres are feeling a level of pressure they haven’t felt before. If we don’t penalize Alex Wood for one bad game last week, we can reasonably claim that he should pitch well in this contest.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
After getting hammered by the Dodgers over the weekend, the Padres will return home and find the Giants much less challenging and formidable by comparison. Beyond that point, Blake Snell is pitching better than Alex Wood right now. Most of all, San Diego’s new and improved lineup isn’t going to remain impotent very long. Getting beaten by the Dodgers doesn’t make San Diego a bad team; it makes the Padres not as good as the Dodgers. They’re a lot better than the Giants, full stop.
Final Giants-Padres Prediction & Pick
The Padres have done well against the Giants this year, and Blake Snell is pitching well. The offense is bound to bust loose before too long, and Alex Wood is unlikely to continue San Diego’s hitting woes, even though he has pitched well in recent weeks. Take the Padres.
Final Giants-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5
