Vanderbilt baseball views losing recruits to the MLB Draft as part of the territory. In order to secure commitments from some of the top players in the country, the Commodores have to accept the risks that players might not make it to campus at all.
Some players commit to Vanderbilt early in their high school careers and blow up later on, proving in their senior years that they are worthy of a seven-figure signing bonus. Other players use their commitment as a leverage play to get a higher signing bonus from an MLB organization.
Although college coaches generally have a good idea of which recruits they are likely to lose to the draft, there are sometimes surprises. Particularly in 2022, when Vanderbilt lost six of its seven highest-rated recruits to the draft − and seven recruits overall − that level of attrition was unexpected. But it only takes one team to pay a recruit the signing bonus he’s seeking to wreak havoc on a recruiting class.
In 2021, the Commodores made it all the way to the championship on the backs of two big-time recruits they did get to campus in Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. But since then, Vanderbilt has failed to get out of regionals two years in a row. As the 2023 MLB Draft is set to begin July 9, the Commodores once again have several recruits who could be selected, including Max Clark, who is considered a top-10 overall prospect.
Here are the five players who signed out of high school who could have most helped the Commodores during the past two seasons:
Ryan Clifford
Clifford was one of the players it was a particular gut punch to lose. Through two days of the draft, he remained unselected and seemed likely to head to school. But the Astros paid him second-round money to sign him in the 11th round in 2022.
His performance in the minor leagues has underlined why he was such a tough loss for Vanderbilt. As the youngest player on the High-A Asheville Tourists, Clifford has eight doubles and nine homers in 162 plate appearances. (For comparison, Davis Diaz had nine homers in 291 plate appearances, tied for second on Vanderbilt’s 2023 team.) As the Commodores had a revolving door of left fielders in 2023, Clifford could’ve provided that much-needed pop.
Volpe, a high-school teammate of Jack Leiter, was thought to be headed to campus in 2019, but he couldn’t refuse an offer from the hometown New York Yankees in the first round.
That was clearly the right choice for the shortstop, as he made his major-league debut on March 30, less than nine months after he would’ve been drafted had he instead gone to Vanderbilt out of high school.
Although Volpe has struggled in the majors, the speed at which he tore through the minors indicates that with the Commodores, he likely would’ve been an All-American level infielder on the 2021 and 2022 teams. Given the injuries to Carter Young and Tate Kolwyck in 2021, and the lack of production from Young and Diaz in 2022, Volpe could’ve been the missing piece.
Sal Stewart
Like Clifford, Stewart was thought to have a good shot to make it to Vanderbilt in the 2022 draft. Instead, the Cincinnati Reds took him in the first round.
Stewart, a third baseman, wouldn’t have fit a positional need as well as Clifford, nor has he performed as well in the minors − with six home runs in 279 plate appearances, albeit in a league that’s very unfriendly to long balls. But on the 2023 team, it’s still likely that Stewart could’ve started right away at first base or DH.
Jordan Lawler
Lawlar is lower on the list for the sole reason that as the sixth overall pick in 2021, he was not expected to get to campus. As a college player, he surely would’ve made an impact; MLB Pipeline rates him the sixth-best prospect in all of minor league baseball.
Like Volpe, Lawlar would have immediately solved the lack of infield production on the 2022 team. While not as much of a pure power hitter as someone like Clifford, Lawlar does have 10 home runs in 280 plate appearances in Double-A this year.
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Carson Milbrandt
Vanderbilt’s 2023 team was riddled with injuries to the pitching staff. Despite the Commodores losing four top-tier arms to the 2022 draft, it’s unclear how many of them would’ve helped, as Dylan Lesko, Brandon Barriera and Noah Schultz have all dealt with injuries in their first year in the minors.
One pitcher who has stayed healthy is Milbrandt, a third-round selection of the Marlins in 2022. The right-handed pitcher may not have secured a spot in Vanderbilt’s rotation right away − few freshmen do − but at the very least he would’ve been another healthy, ultra-talented arm who could’ve stepped in during the times Vanderbilt was without two-thirds of its weekend rotation in 2023.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Vanderbilt baseball’s five most painful MLB Draft losses since 2019