As the NBA offseason winds down, we’ve now seen many of the rookies shine, whether it’s been in the Summer League or a pro-am. So far what we’ve seen, this draft class looks more than solid.
Paolo Banchero was understood to be the most NBA-ready prospect, yet he was projected to be the third pick of the Houston Rockets. It was “understood” around the league that Jabari Smith Jr. was the top pick of the draft.
The Orlando Magic shocked the NBA landscape and took Banchero. As the most NBA-ready prospect and now the no. 1 pick, Banchero should be the early favorite to win Rookie of the Year. Let’s take a look at the odds.
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NBA Rookie of the Year Odds
| Rookie | Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero | +300 | 25% |
| Chet Holmgren | +375 | 21.1% |
| Keegan Murray | +600 | 14.3% |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | +650 | 13.3% |
| Jaden Ivey | +700 | 12.5% |
| Benedict Mathurin | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Dyson Daniels | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Johnny Davis | +2800 | 3.4% |
| Ousmane Dieng | +3300 | 2.9% |
Paolo Banchero (+300) (Bet $100 to Win $330)
As expected, Banchero owns the top odds, and it’ll likely stay that way until we see a few regular season NBA games. His top competitor, according to the odds, is Chet Holmgren. This battle is going to be interesting to see this season.
Holmgren may be on arguably the better squad, but Banchero *should* be the number one scoring option. Holmgren, though, can maximize his talent without being the top-scoring option. If Holmgren can score the ball efficiently and at high volume, Banchero will have a strong competitor for the award.
Keegan Murray will challenge Banchero just as much as we saw the Summer League MVP’s scoring capabilities in Las Vegas. Small sample size? Sure, but it’s the only sample size we have for these prospects. For example, Jaden Ivey looked like the very best rookie when he was having a perfect game before his injury.
There’s also the potential that some of these other rookies find themselves in roles to compete while getting quite a few minutes, which may help their case.
Then brings in another storied rival in Smith Jr., as he was supposedly the top pick since the Draft Lottery. The two guys’ names will be linked throughout their careers, and they’ll draw comparisons to each other constantly, like Luka Doncic and Trae Young, because of the draft day drama. Smith Jr., though, seemed to struggle in the Summer League. Yes, I’m aware that means nothing for the prospects, but you can expect Smith Jr. to take some time to adjust to NBA speeds for his scoring and shot creation.
Nevertheless, the ball is in Banchero’s court to win the Rookie of the Year. He’s got the edge in the odds. He was the top pick. He’s understood to be the best current rookie and the most NBA-ready. If he comes in and makes an early impact on the Magic, the award will be his to lose.
At Banchero’s size, with his skill set, getting buckets should be no issue, which we all know is a big part of winning awards in the NBA. It’s an offensive-oriented league, and if he can excel at that end, his chances of winning the award will be boosted.