The PGA heads to Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The winning score in the last three years has been 18 under or better. In what is expected to be another low-scoring week, back the players who can take advantage of birdie opportunities. Here’s a top-20 wager to make:
Hideki Matsuyama
Top 20 (-110)
Top 10 (+190)
Top 5 (+360)
To win (+1600)
The 2021 Masters champion leads the field in strokes gained from tee to green. Matsuyama has gained strokes ball-striking and tee to green in eight of his last nine tournaments. After back-to-back missed cuts in early March, he has since produced five top-20 finishes, including a solo fifth in The Players Championship and a T13 finish in last week’s Travelers Championship.
Because Detroit Golf Club is susceptible to some low scoring, it helps that Deki is ranked eighth in strokes gained on easy courses and 15th in birdie-or-better percentage gained. What’s typically a problem is the putting, as he’s historically part of Team No Putt. Matsuyama has gained strokes putting in five of his last nine tournaments, and that’s actually worse than Deki’s normal baseline, which means there’s room for improvement and an opportunity to go off unexpectedly.
Deki is one of the few players who has a consistent and solid course history in Detroit with a T13 in 2019 and T21 in 2020. Matsuyama shot a two-under opening round in 2021 but had to withdraw after testing positive for COVID-19.
As the fifth-best ball-striker in the field, backing Deki in the top-20 market is a sensible risk. If he just happened to get lucky with the flatstick, similar to last year when he gained seven strokes putting to win the Sony Open, then +1600 to win is also worth a grab.