From a fan perspective, the US Open is a great opportunity to see the vulnerability of pros, which makes them more relatable. More often than not, we can stare at the television screen and say, “They’re just like us.” From a betting point of view, the difficulty of a major on an unknown course is challenging. With no previous course data from Los Angeles Country Club, I targeted all-around players. For the head-to-head market, I’m fading two players who have clear flaws and can be exploited. These full tournament head-to-head wagers are 13-6-2 on the season with many at plus-money. Here are two bets for the US Open.
Tyrrell Hatton (+125) vs. Rory McIlroy
I never take two players I like as outrights and then fade one in a head-to-head. However, in my outright video, I did say McIlroy is a consistent top-10 option. Yes, this is also the same head-to-head that came through last week in Canada. There’s one difference between Hatton and McIlroy that makes the plus-money wager on Hatton enticing: fourth-round scoring.
Despite three straight top-10 finishes, McIlroy appears to have a fourth-round problem, which could be the reason he’s not finding his way to the winner’s circle. He shot 3 over on Day 4 at the Memorial and then 2 over last week in Canada. Meanwhile, Hatton has been great on final days, shooting 67 or below in four of his last six tournaments, including a 64 (8 under par) last week in Canada to finish T3. This feels like a great week for Hatton to snag a PGA title.
Jon Rahm (+115) vs. Scottie Scheffler
In the past two weeks, Scheffler has lost 13 total putting strokes. That is absurd. He’s finished bottom five in the field in each tournament in putting. Yet, Scottie has back-to-back third-place finishes. Here’s the problem: It’s major week and Scheffler changed his putter. That’s how much doubt Scheffler has with his short game right now. Could it work out for him? Absolutely. He’s easily the best ball striker on tour right now.
However, what Rahm has going for him is LACC is a George Thomas design, which has similarities to Riviera Country Club. Looking at an aerial view of LACC, it’s also pretty reminiscent of Augusta. Rahm won The Genesis Invitational at Riviera in February and won the Masters at Augusta in April. Betting plus money to fade a player capable of losing 10 strokes putting is a no-brainer regardless of the outcome.