The rookies aren’t making decisions any easier on the Guardians front office.
The Guardians have two roster moves coming up, both of which involve the starting rotation. One, and possibly both, will happen by the end of the week. Should be no problem, except that two Guardians rookies are pitching well enough that the whole situation has become a bit more complicated.
Aaron Civale is set to return from the injured list Friday. Triston McKenzie could possibly rejoin the starting rotation Sunday in Minnesota. If not, it’ll very likely be next week.
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Civale started the 2023 season strong before being sidelined, allowing four earned runs and striking out eight in 12⅔ innings (2.84 ERA). McKenzie is coming off a breakout 2022 season in which he posted a 2.96 ERA and 190 strikeouts in 191⅓ innings. Both will likely have spots.
One of them will take Hunter Gaddis’ spot in the rotation. The question is how the team handles the second roster move.
What can the Guardians do with Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen?
The most straightforward solution? Option down one of the rookies, Tanner Bibee or Logan Allen. But there’s a problem. The two pitchers performing the best in the Guardians rotation right now? Bibee and Allen. And it isn’t particularly close, either.
In 34⅓ innings, Bibee has a 2.88 ERA and 34 strikeouts. Allen has a 2.72 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 39⅔ innings. Both with sub-3.00 ERAs. Both striking out at least a batter per inning. Oh, and if you combine their last outings, which spanned 13 innings: one earned run allowed, five hits, three walks and 19 strikeouts.
Can the Guardians, a team trying to climb back to .500 and only three games out of the lead in the AL Central, afford to take Bibee or Allen out of the rotation right now? It’s possible that roster construction and the organizational situation will dictate one of them traveling back to Triple-A Columbus.
But if that answer is no — and if McKenzie and Civale rejoin the rotation — then the Guardians will have to get somewhat creative with one of the other two healthy veterans: Shane Bieber and Cal Quantrill. And both, lately, have been drifting in the opposite direction of Bibee and Allen.
Could Cal Quantrill be an option for the Guardians bullpen?
After a strong 2022, this season has not been as kind to Quantrill. He has a 5.61 ERA and is coming off his worst two starts of 2023, having been knocked around for 14 earned runs in only 8⅓ combined innings.
Quantrill spent much of the 2021 season in the Guardians bullpen after he struggled that spring. Once he joined the rotation, he took off and put together 1½ quality seasons, but that momentum seems to have stalled. The Guardians could view all of this as an opportunity to move Quantrill to the bullpen as a multi-inning weapon and allow him to reset.
Quantrill taking a spot in the bullpen could also offer James Karinchak a chance to be optioned to Triple-A, as he’s also struggled to find his footing in 2023 (4.37 ERA, 6.29 FIP).
If the Guardians don’t want to mess with either of the rookies’ momentum, this could be the most likely scenario.
Could the Guardians trade Shane Bieber?
This is a larger aspect that goes far beyond only the Bibee/Allen dilemma, and the idea that such a valuable pitcher could be traded, in early June, and for proper value is seemingly asking a lot.
But the notion of a possible Bieber trade isn’t new. He’s one of the few key players on the roster not under club control for the foreseeable future — all of the long-term deals the club has signed recently run through at least 2028 with club options — and therefore must be placed in the possible trade candidate group.
Bieber is only under team control through next season, as he and the Guardians haven’t been able to reach any agreement on an extension. His velocity has also dropped each season since he won the American League Cy Young Award in 2020. Bieber has done well to re-invent himself with the lack of velocity he once had, posting a combined 2.97 ERA in 2021 and 2022.
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Pocket 2023 has been a bit shakier. Bieber was just thrashed for seven earned runs in Baltimore, which ballooned his ERA to 3.72. He’s been an effective pitcher, but his short-term control and the Guardians’ logjam of starting pitchers create a plausible trade scenario between now and the Aug. 1 deadline.
The Guardians are already facing some difficult decisions with Bibee and Allen, and that doesn’t even yet include Gavin Williams, who is tearing down the door to the majors like Jack Torrance in “The Shining.”
Losing Bieber would be a rough blow to the rotation, but the team’s long-term plans and need for offense might grease the wheels to a deal, assuming a team ponies up enough value for the Guardians to part ways with him. That is, likely, a tall order. And at least when it comes to the roster crunch over the next few weeks, perhaps a trade of that magnitude isn’t in the cards.
Of course, a Quantrill deal would also be possible. But, again, a trade this far out from the deadline (when teams have a better idea of needs and direction) due to a roster crunch could be difficult to pull off when searching for a specific value.
But the Guardians’ pitching development has seemingly caused a good problem to have, and Bibee and Allen have done their part to make the decision as challenging as possible.
Ryan Lewis can be reached at [email protected]. Read more about the Guardians at www.beaconjournal.com/sports/cleveland-guardians. Follow him on Twitter at @ByRyanLewis.
This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Guardians have tough decisions with Bibee, Allen, Bieber, Quantrill