An economic theory authored nearly 100 years ago explains why CVS and Walgreens drugstores are often stationed in close proximity, and if theorist Harold Hotelling were alive today, he’d likely approve of the College Football Playoff going head-to-head with the NFL, Come 2024.
The upshot of Hotelling’s law is this: If two businesses peddle a similar product, one business should not cede the prime real estate to a competitor. Instead, plop your business next to theirs on the most fertile ground and duke it out.
That will occur on the third Saturday of December in 2024, when three first-round games from the inaugural 12-team CFP will occur on the same day as NFL regular-season games.
The CFP’s expansion from four to 12 teams will extend the season and double the number of playoff rounds from two to four. This created a scheduling pickle, because the NFL hogs the most desirable dates during the time when college football’s expanded playoff would need to occur. Starting in mid-December, the NFL begins playing Saturday regular-season games, in addition to its Monday, Thursday and Sunday offerings.
That left college football with few options:
A. Move up the start of the season into August, allowing first-round CFP games to be played earlier in December, when the NFL doesn’t play Saturday games.
B. Play first-round CFP games on a wonky weekday, like a Tuesday, when no NFL occurs.
C. Go toe to toe with big brother and compete for Saturday audience.
Option C prevailed, and this decision is not one to be feared. Rather, this rare union of top-tier college games airing alongside the NFL is an opportunity to grow the CFP’s audience.
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One first-round CFP game will be played on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. Then, Saturday, Dec. 21, will become a football bonanza melding the CFP with the NFL. Television manufacturers might become the biggest winner. If you’re a holdout with one living room TV, this football feast may cause you to make a Walmart run in search of a Roku TV.
The NFL casts a long shadow in TV ratings, but blending college and NFL offerings could expose NFL-leaning fans to college football’s postseason. And a 12-team playoff with a chance for first-round upsets and participation from a broader region of schools is the prime opportunity to grab new eyeballs.
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The NFL’s high tide could lift college football’s viewership boat and broaden its audience beyond the usual strongholds.
Would a Broncos fan be interested in the LSU Tigers? Why not?
Consider this hypothetical: If the Bengals and Colts play a regular-season game on the NFL Network on that December Saturday while LSU and Michigan tussle in a first-round playoff game on ESPN, most of the Cincinnati audience will tune in to the Bengals, while TVs in Baton Rouge will be cued to the CFP. Loyalty cannot be overthrown.
But, what about the Denver Broncos fan who doesn’t normally consume much college football? Might that Broncos fan eye the LSU-Michigan playoff game rather than watching the Bengals bludgeon the Colts?
Next thing you know, maybe that Broncos fan tunes in again for the CFP quarterfinals. A new viewer is born.
Big college football brands can hold up against the NFL
The 2020 season showed that college football can hold its own against the NFL when it offers a high-stakes game featuring two big brands. Pandemic-altered scheduling that year resulted in conference championship games going head-to-head with the NFL’s regular season on the third Saturday in December.
Ratings for several lackluster conference championship matchups slumped, including the primetime SEC Championship between Alabama and Florida, but No. 2 Notre Dame versus No. 3 Clemson in the 4 pm ET time slot became the highest-watched ACC Championship in six years. With nearly 10 million viewers, it more than doubled the ratings of the Bills-Broncos game that aired on the NFL Network in the same timeslot.
So, yes, I think a Michigan-LSU playoff game could hold its own against the regular-season Bengals-Colts.
Why the CFP’s later rounds won’t be played on Saturdays
Smartly, the CFP will play on weekdays following its first round to keep from going up against the NFL playoffs. With apologies to Hotelling’s law, sharing television airwaves with the NFL postseason remains undesirable. Taking on a Bills-Broncos Week 15 game is one thing. Challenging the NFL’s wild-card round, which commands a national audience, is quite another.
As such, New Year’s Eve (a Tuesday in 2024) will feature one quarterfinal game, and New Year’s Day will snag the other three. Semifinals will be split between Thursday, Jan. 9, and another on Jan. 10. The championship will remain on a Monday – Jan. 20, 2025.
But, for one glorious December Saturday, college football’s playoff and the NFL’s regular season will unite for a football bash that may encourage Broncos and 49ers and Seahawks and Bucs fans to scoot their Christmas tree aside to make room for a second TV in the living room .
Blake Toppmeyer is an SEC Columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY NETWORK: CFP schedule 2024: Sharing TV time with NFL good for college football