Spring training is only three weeks away. The winter flew by, eh? If this hot stove season felt both busier and shorter than most, you can point to the lack of a lockout and the lengthy melodrama surrounding Carlos Correa. Unlike last year, when the owners froze the sport for months, business stayed open all offseason. And the three-team shuffle with Correa kept fans interested even after almost all the other major free agents found homes.
So a new season is almost upon us. With that in mind, let’s take a few questions relating to how the winter that just passed will affect the summer ahead. The questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
The biggest bat available at the deadline is … — Alix G.
I hope you are sitting down for this. But in Anaheim, where the Los Angeles Angels play, there is a man who pitches once every six days and hits on the days in between, and he will be a free agent this coming winter…
Angels general manager Perry Minasian was unequivocal back in November: He won’t be trading Shohei Ohtani before the season. For a variety of obvious reasons, the Angels would like to sign Ohtani to a lifetime contract. For a variety of obvious reasons, Ohtani may not want to commit to a new deal with the Angels. With owner Arte Moreno electing not to sell the team, Ohtani can be certain who will run the franchise during the lifetime of any extension. Given the reasonable criticisms about Moreno’s stewardship over the past decade, it is unclear if that certainty would persuade Ohtani to say.
All that being said: The Angels still may not trade Ohtani. The team could be in contention. Moreno could refuse to give up such a lucrative marketing draw. And the team could be willing to stay after Ohtani all the way through his free-agent process.
So if not Ohtani, who else?
There are two ways to identify obvious trade candidates: Good players on rebuilding teams, and players approaching free agency. This year’s crop of impending free-agent hitters are mostly located on clubs with aspirations of contention in 2023: Manny Machado in San Diego, Matt Chapman in Toronto, Teoscar Hernández in Seattle, Rhys Hoskins in Philadelphia, Amed Rosario in Cleveland. And most of the rebuilding teams aren’t exactly overstocked with talented veterans who can fetch a sizable return.
Bryan Reynolds (Charles LeClaire / USA TODAY Sports)
So that leaves:
1. Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates
Reynolds wants out. The Pirates want a huge return. At some point, plenty of executives believe, Pittsburgh will move him. While Reynolds’ outsized value stems from his defensive utility and his remaining years of team control, he’s been an excellent hitter the past two seasons, with a 136 OPS+ while averaging 26 homers and a .368 on-base percentage.
2. Ian Happ, OF, Cubs
Happ is both a pending free agent and a good player on a rebuilding team. The Cubs were expected to move him last summer, when Happ became an All-Star for the first time, but did not make a deal. With the team trending towards contention — at least, in theory — there may be even less interest in moving him this summer. But Happ does fit the profile, especially if the Cubs continue to languish behind St. Louis and Milwaukee.
After Reynolds and Happ, you get into far murkier territory: CJ Cron? Garrett Cooper? Would the Brewers or Red Sox or White Sox trade away players if the teams underperform?
It looks like it could be a quiet summer. Then again, how many folks predicted Washington would move Juan Soto last year? Most likely, there will be someone major on the block.
Which pitchers will be hurt with the pitch clock? — Scott S.
Talking to folks around the game, there is some sense that hitters might actually struggle more than pitchers. We shall see. But if you’re sticking just with pitchers, a name that comes up often is three-time All Star closer Kenley Jansen. Jansen, who signed with Boston this past winter, has been vocal about his opposition to the clock for years. Back in 2018, he called the idea “ridiculous.” His frustration with the concept makes sense, considering how long he takes in between pitches.
Baseball Savant keeps tabs on the tempo of pitchers, for both bases-empty situations and situations with men on base. I have marked in bold the players who made both lists.
Here are 10 slowest with the bases empty from 2020 to 2022:
- Aroldis Chapman – 26.0 seconds between pitches
- Kyle Finnegan — 25.8
- Giovanni Gallegos — 25.7
- Joe Kelly — 24.8
- Kenley Jansen — 24.8
- Hunter Strickland — 24.2
- Josh Staumont — 24.2
- Emilio Pagán — 24.1
- Alex Vesia — 23.8
- Ryan Pressly — 23.5
And here are the 10 slowest with runners aboard:
- Giovanny Gallegos — 32.4 seconds between pitches
- Devin Williams — 30.2
- Hirokazu Sawamura — 30.1
- Kenley Jansen — 29.9
- Aroldis Chapman — 29.9
- Alex Colomé — 29.9
- John Gant — 29.3
- Kyle Finnegan — 29.0
- Craig Stammen — 28.6
- Mark Melancon — 28.5
Perhaps you notice a pattern? These are all relievers. They tend to appear in high-leverage situations where an extra few seconds of concentration feels sensible. They also often pitch with maximum effort, and require that extra time to recover in between offerings. It will be interesting to see how folks adapt.
What’s your opinion on the Twins’ pitching and their chances at the division? – Josh B.
Outside of poker, I’m not much of a gambling man. If I were, I would bet on Minnesota winning more than 78 games in 2023. But I would still put them behind Cleveland in the American League Central. The Guardians played much better than Minnesota in the second half and have more talent streaming through the minor-league pipeline. The Twins are aided by their division. I’m not sure they would get mentioned as a contender in either iteration of the East.
Given their geographic good fortune, I can see Minnesota contending for a wild-card spot. The front office made some solid additions. Carlos Correa grabbed the biggest headlines, and his long-term effect on the franchise figures to be sizable. The arrival of Christian Vázquez improves the catching situation. Pablo López fits the profile of a lot of Twins pitchers. Like Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle and Joe Ryan, he’s more of a mid-rotation piece than a frontline starter. The depth is solid, especially if Kenta Maeda returns in good health. It should be a decent staff. Cleveland still has a better one.
How does Kansas City get out of the AL Central basement? — Drew C.
The simplest way out? They have got to start winning more games.
To do that, of course, the team will have to do a better job at what they’ve been trying to do for the past two decades: drafting and developing homegrown talent that can succeed at the big-league level. Bobby Witt Jr. can’t fizzle out like Adalberto Mondesí did.
True or false: The new schedule format will result in all the wild cards coming from the AL and NL East divisions? — Tom W.
False. Seattle should be pretty good, and the National League West should have two playoff entrants.
Will the Rockies ever have a Cy Young winner? — Phil J.
Ever? Sure. Maybe. There is an ancient proverb about the folly of ever saying never. I think. I would have to look it up.
Ubaldo Jiménez came close; he finished third in 2010, a 7.5 bWAR season that still paled next to Roy Halladay’s 8.5 bWAR campaign for Philadelphia. Kyle Freeland was tremendous in 2018 — 17-6, 2.85 ERA, 202.1 innings, 7.7 bWAR — but couldn’t surpass Jacob deGrom’s first superstar season. At a time when pitching is so advanced, it is really difficult for Rockies arms to keep pace with the rest of the industry, and the metrics can only account so much for the difficulties of the team’s home environment.
So it’s hard to see when a Colorado pitcher might win. Some of this can be chalked up to the current state of the organization, which has been adrift for several years now, consigned to the basement of the National League West. A consistent refrain from rival executives about Rockies pitchers sounds something like this: “I would love to see [insert pitcher’s name] outside of Colorado.” This carries a double meaning. The Rockies have not had much success developing arms. But the inherent challenges of pitching at altitude are so well-established that it’s almost as if people forget how hard it is to do.
Former Rockies pitchers have talked about how they need to develop separate arsenals for Coors Field and the road. Their breaking balls do not cooperate at home. Fastballs have less life. Fatigue sets in sooner. The next pitcher to declare Coors Field a fun place to be will be the first.
Everyone is touting the Padres as among the very best teams this year. But I see two good-to-very good starting pitchers, the talented but erratic Blake Snell and two long relievers they hope will transform into quality starters. If pitching wins games, I say good luck. Your thoughts? — Steve S.
Ah, now I see David Vassegh has taken on a new alias.
You know what, Steve? This is a pessimistic but reasonable assessment of the situation. San Diego can bank on Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. After that, there are a lot of questions. To me, the winter-time praise for the Padres stems in large part from the decision by the Dodgers to avoid long-term commitments in free agency. With the Dodgers standing pat, even after losing stars like Trea Turner, it’s easy to project San Diego as a division winner, especially after picking up Xander Bogaerts.
The optimist’s take on Snell is that he was much, much better in the second half of 2022, as he grew more comfortable in San Diego. He posted a 2.19 ERA in his last 14 starts. He improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 2.13 in the first half to 5.25 in the second. The talent started to win out over the erraticism.
The rest of the rotation presents an interesting mix. Both Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo are transitioning back to the rotation — as you noted — which will be curious to watch. Rival pitchers in the West speak highly of Martinez’s ability. I was surprised to see Lugo’s market as a starter, given his relatively pedestrian numbers as a reliever for the Mets. San Diego will also bank on its stockpile of depth, which features a variety of former top prospects (Casey Weathers, Adrian Morejon and Brent Honeywell, Jr.) plus Julio Teheran and Wilmer Font.
What’s the over/under on the number of innings Chris Sale will pitch this season? — Jeff P.
The projection on Roster Resource has him at 147 (with a 3.49 ERA, no less). I would take the under on that.
With the new addition of Luis Arraez, what is the outlook for this new Marlins lineup and defense? Can they make a wild-card push? — Parker B.
The offense looks better. Arraez is a splendid hitter. He combines a keen eye with the coordination to make consistent contact. Any lineup would welcome the addition of a batter with a .374 career on-base percentage. But Miami made some sacrifices on the defensive end. Arraez was often dinged by advanced defensive metrics for his play at second base. The team will shift Jazz Chisholm Jr. off second, a position he played well, into center field, a position he has never played in the majors. Chisholm should be able to handle the outfield, but it will still be an adjustment.
I don’t think this deal makes much difference in Miami’s 2023 outlook. The club still looks like the fourth-best team in the National League East. They will likely finish below .500. But maybe I am wrong. Stranger things have happened.
Who was the most underpaid free agent this offseason? — Anonymous
If you remove Clayton Kershaw from this conversation, given how his disinterest in finding a multi-year contract or exploring the rest of the market limits his options, then I thought the best bargain this winter came in the form of Nathan Eovaldi. He signed with Texas for two years and $34 million. I understand the factors that hurt his market. To sign him required draft-pick compensation. He got hurt in 2022. He was older than some of the other available pitchers. But Eovaldi has excellent control, good fastball velocity, and a championship pedigree. He also figures to benefit from finally leaving the American League East.
(Top photo: Darren Yamashita / USA TODAY Sports)
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