- AFC NO. 1 SEED | 15-3
- Odds to win Super Bowl: +270
This season, the Chiefs have been exceptional at designing plays that confuse defenses and mask the primary target. While it’s logical to assume that most pass plays are going Travis Kelce’s way — after all, he was targeted 51 more times than any other Chiefs player this season — his varied pre-snap alignments disrupt the “rules” defenses usually follow as they pertain to tight ends, leading to more confusion. Kelce is the only tight end in the NFL this season (including playoffs) to run more than 125 routes from wide, slot and tight alignments. He ranks No. 1 at his position in receiving yards when aligned wide (376) and in the slot (709) this year, while his 29.8 percent target rate when aligned tight is the highest in a season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
Patrick Mahomes has been exceptional from the pocket this year (throwing the most TD passes from the pocket in the NFL), but has also continued to showcase his innate ability to create extra time with his legs to exploit confused defenses. He led the league in attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns on extended dropbacks (at least four seconds to throw) this season. And since 2017, no quarterback has thrown for more yards (4,515) or touchdowns (40) on such passes than Mahomes. It’s also worth noting that Mahomes ranks third or better in every major metric for throws on the run (traveling at least 8 miles per hour), and notably he’s thrown for 881 yards (most in NFL) and nine touchdowns (T-2nd) on such attempts. Unsurprisingly, Mahomes leads the NFL in yards (4,946) and touchdowns (58) on the run since 2017 — crushing the competition in both categories, with second-place Russell Wilson coming up 681 yards and 20 touchdowns short of those marks.
With the MVP finalist nursing a high ankle sprain, it is unclear how much “Mahomes Magic” we will see on Sunday. Fortunately for Kansas City, No. 15 has also shown a proclivity for connecting on shorter throws. Just 7.8 percent of Mahomes’ passes this year went deep, which is the lowest rate of his career and the sixth-lowest in the league — a shift due in part to Tyreek Hill’s offseason departure and increased two-high safety looks. As a result, Kansas City is winning now with a foundation built on the run game and short throws (and a heavy dose of Kelce, of course). If they are able to stay so multiple on offense, they can control the game against Cincinnati and book their ticket to Glendale in two weeks.