Today’s mailbag looks at Jets prospect development, focusing on what scouts projected and what players — specifically, Dylan Samberg — have delivered so far in their careers.
It also returns Winnipeg’s focus to the defense corps, where Josh Morrissey’s Norris campaign continues but one reader wonders if the Jets’ overall quality on D is good enough for a deep playoff run.
We’re trying something new as well, with a bit of a shorter read — no 2,000- or 3,000-word slog — and would love to know if you prefer your mailbags this way or as one bigger piece.
Note: Submitted questions may be edited for clarity and style.
Can you comment on Samberg’s trajectory? Below or above the line? — Vince P.
Samberg was an excellent college defenseman for three seasons, breaking up plays in his own zone at will and doing a good job of transitioning the puck up ice, too. Despite 40 points in his final 67 games for the University of Minnesota-Duluth, scouts told me they wondered if his offense would translate to the NHL. The idea was that he’d be a third-pairing defenseman with penalty killing ability — at minimum — and probably be capable of top-four defending, even if the points never piled up.
This season, Samberg has played third-pairing minutes at even strength and has been a strong penalty killer, while also putting up eight points in 33 games. To me, that makes Samberg exactly the player scouts advertised to me when he was still in college.
He defends well, whether that means being physical, using an active stick, or shoulder checking to make sure he doesn’t lose threats behind him as well as in front. In that last regard, I hold him up there with the Jets veterans and ahead of Logan Stanley, whose injury helped give him a job. Keeping track of multiple, overlapping threats — to my eyes, at least — is one of the skills that differentiates a defenseman between the third pair and a top-four role.
Note that the quality of forwards a player has to deal with is thought to be quite similar for first and second pairs, while third pairings are a bit easier to hide.
All of this is my way of saying that, while Samberg has clearly been a third-pair defenseman this season, I believe he’s been good at it to the point where I expect to trust him in his own zone even if he starts getting tougher assignments. as he progresses. He turns 24 this month and my guess is that the heart of his career between now and age 30 will be spent on a second pair, providing sound defense, without a lot of offense to accompany it.
Here is his on-ice impact, according to Hockey Viz.
I’ll end with a thought on what Samberg might do better.
He’s a capable passer but sometimes his read of the coverage in front of him isn’t as fast as the Morrisseys of the world (or, say, Ville Heinola.) I’ve noticed a couple of plays stop in transition because he didn’t t hit an outlet fast enough, while a couple of giveaways have hit highlight reels.
His overall impact is good, though, and he’s a player I believe in to grow.
Do you think we have a Cup-caliber defense? If we need an upgrade, who makes sense? —Dan O.
I don’t think Winnipeg has the kind of defense corps that you look at, on paper, and feel stirred towards feelings of Cup contention. Morrissey is working to change the post-Byfuglien notion that Winnipeg “doesn’t have a No. 1” but, after him, there are some question marks. Neal Pionk hasn’t defended as well this year or last as he did for his first two seasons in Winnipeg. Veterans Dylan DeMelo, Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon are all capable of positive results in a top-four role, but none of them stand out like Mikhail Sergachev to Morrissey’s Victor Hedman, or perhaps even Ryan McDonagh.
I did hear Rick Bowness suggest DeMelo was the Devon Toews to Morrissey’s Cale Makar last week and, as someone who has written about the chemistry in that pairing since 2020, I felt the overwhelming urge to flip a table and remind everyone I told you so satisfaction of a good player getting his due.
To be honest, I also felt some skepticism — I don’t see DeMelo in Toews’ range as an offensive player.
But Winnipeg’s defense must be better than the 2017 Cup-winning Penguins, no?
Shayna Goldman was kind enough to share this bit of data from The Athletic‘s Cup winning checklist. Look at elite defenseman Justin Schultz, who was actually more of a power play specialist on that team, delivering offense but playing fewer five-on-five minutes than Ron Hainsey, Brian Dumoulin, Olli Määttä and Ian Cole on the way to Pittsburgh’s 2017 Cup. . (You may remember that superstar defenseman Kris Letang was kept out of the playoffs by a herniated disc in his neck.)
Dom and Shayna’s Jets player cards show that Winnipeg has a whole bunch of defensemen playing at a higher level than Pittsburgh’s did in 2017. The 2015 Cup-winning Blackhawks are another example, with Duncan Keith and the supremely underrated Niklas Hjalmarsson supported by Johnny Oduya. Brent Seabrook and Michal Rozsival.
Is “better than at least one Cup winner” good enough?
All I can give you is maybe. Connor Hellebuyck has played a big role in this, but Winnipeg is actually fifth-best in the NHL in terms of goals against per game. I once spoke to someone familiar with NHL teams’ in-house analytics who suggested that, despite public perception, scoring chances don’t necessarily come from different places in the playoffs. It’s just harder to get to those places, with almost every forward willing to backcheck and almost every player willing to block shots in the middle.
So I’m not sure Winnipeg automatically needs to add the veteran version of 6-foot-7 Logan Stanley.
At the same time, I still think of Winnipeg’s deck on defense as one king and a group of sixes, sevens, and eights. Jakob Chychrun would be an automatic upgrade on an already crowded left side, giving the Jets two pairings that could go toe-to-toe with anyone. With two years left on his contract after this season, he’d also be a window-extender. Former Brandon Wheat Kings star Ivan Provorov would be well-known to Jets brass, with a recent report claiming that Winnipeg asked for Provorov when shopping Patrik Laine.
I don’t know that Winnipeg goes shopping in that aisle on deadline day. In fact, I think its history suggests depth veterans are the more likely to play. At some point, however, I think the Jets would be well served to look for more meaningful upgrades — and I think they’d be willing to spend prospects like Heinola to make them.
(Photo of Josh Morrissey and Dylan Demelo: Jonathan Kozub / NHLI via Getty Images)
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