The Marlins are in agreement with a free agent right-hander Johnny Cueto, per Jon Heyman. Per Craig Mish, the deal is reportedly for one year with a salary of $6MM. Additionally, the Marlins will hold a $10.5MM club option for the 2024 with a $2.5MM buyout, taking the total guarantee to $8.5MM. Cueto is a client of Bryce Dixon.
Cueto, who will play next season at age 37, has had a long and successful career to this point. He began his career with the Reds in 2008, and was among the best pitchers in baseball for them from 2011 to 2015, when he was dealt to the Royals midseason in exchange for Brandon Finnegan, John Lamband Cody Reed. The highlight of Cueto’s tenure in Cincinnati was the 2014 season, when he led the NL in innings pitched (243 2/3) ad strikeouts (242) while also posting a sterling 2.25 ERA (163 ERA+) en route to his first All Star appearance and a second-place finish in Cy Young award voting.
Cueto went on to win a World Series with the Royals in 2015 before departing for free agency, where he eventually landed with the Giants on a six-year, $130MM deal. In the first year of his deal with San Francisco, Cueto was excellent. An ERA of 2.79 (144 ERA+) with a FIP of 2.95 over 219 2/3 innings led him to his second All Star appearance and a fourth-place finish in Cy Young award voting as the Giants made secured a spot in the Wild Card game , defeating the Mets in a one game playoff before falling to the Cubs in the NLDS.
While the contract appeared to be a resounding success after the first year, things quickly took a turn for the worse as Cueto began to struggle to stay on the field and healthy. From 2017 until the end of his Giants tenure in 2021, Cueto posted a 4.38 ERA (95 ERA+) and 4.47 FIP in just 394 1/3 innings while spending time on the injured list in each of those seasons except for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Given his injury woes and the fact that his numbers were closer to those of a back-end starter than the dominant ace he once was, Cueto had to settle for a minor-league deal with the White Sox prior to the 2022 season.
That deal worked out phenomenally for the White Sox, as Cueto posted a resurgent season in 2022 and looked like a bit more like his old self as he posted a 3.35 ERA (118 ERA+) and and 3.79 FIP across 24 starts and 158 1/3 innings. While Cueto no longer struck batters out at an above average rate as he did in the prime of his career, he maintained his excellent control, posting a walk rate in the 88th percentile by Baseball Savant last year. Despite Cueto’s resurgent season, however, there’s reason to think regression could be on the way in 2023. Cueto’s HR/FB rate dropped considerably from a 12% rate in 2021 to a 7.7% rate in 2022. While changes to the pitching environment could factor into this, Cueto’s mark in 2022 was far below even his career 10.4% mark, even as he gave up more hard contact in 2022 (30% rate) than he did in 2021 (27.4%) or for his career (28.1%).
Despite these concerns, Cueto should still be a quality arm for the Marlins in 2023. He joins a Miami rotation already overflowing with options: ace Sandy Alcantara is followed by Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabreraand Braxton Garrett in addition to Cueto. That’s also not included young arms who could contribute in the future, such as Sixto Sanchez, Eury Perezand Max Meyer. Rumors have swirled throughout the offseason of the Marlins dealing from their deep stable of rotation players, and signing Cueto provides them with additional depth in the rotation in order to make those deals more comfortable. Currently, the Marlins are known to be listening to offers on four members of the rotation- Lopez, Rogers, Cabrera, and Luzardo. With plenty of teams still looking to add to their rotation this offseason, including the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Padres, signing the best remaining starter on the free agent market has surely strengthened Miami’s position in trade talks.
The Padres and Reds are among the clubs that have shown interest in Cueto this winter previously. The starting options on the free agent market this offseason are quickly dwindling, but Michael Wacha and Zack Greinke still offer the ability to solidify a club’s rotation. Otherwise, rotation upgrades would likely need to come from the trade market, where the Marlins seem to hold the majority of the cards, with only a few players from other clubs, such as Adrian Houser of the Brewers and Chris Sale of the Red Sox, being the subject of rumors in recent weeks.
.