Nobody expected things to go this swimmingly for the Winnipeg Jets coming into the 2022-23 NHL season. Coming off a tumultuous and disappointing season, most folks had the Jets pegged as an outsider in the Central Division behind the likes of Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, and St. Louis.
In fact, many wondered if the best path forward for Winnipeg was to tear it down and trade veteran players like Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, and Pierre-Luc Dubois.
A quick start from Winnipeg put all that talk to bed, and the Jets haven’t really looked back. They are just three points behind Dallas for first place in the Central Division and have two games in hand on the Stars.
The Jets are -102 home underdogs against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Friday night starting at 8 pm ET on ESPN+.
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Lightning vs. Jets prediction (8 pm ET ESPN+)
There is no question that Connor Hellebuyck has been Winnipeg’s MVP this season. The 29-year-old netminder has put together a Vezina-caliber first half with a .928 save percentage, three shutouts, and +18.6 Goals Saved Above Expected (per MoneyPuck) in 29 games.
Numbers like that could make you assume that the Jets are leaning too heavily on their talismanic goaltender, but this isn’t just a one-man show. Winnipeg has played a pretty consistent brand of hockey since Opening Night.
The Jets may not be dominating teams at 5-on-5, but they’re hanging right around the 50% mark in terms of shot attempts, high-danger scoring chances, and expected goals. Because of their elite goaltender, high-end scoring talent, and strong special teams, the Jets don’t need to dominate the puck to win games. They can bet on themselves in most coin-flip contests.
Unfortunately for Winnipeg, Tampa Bay has a lot of similar strengths. The Bolts have the best goaltender in the world, they are consistently one of the best power-play teams in the league, and they have plenty of high-end skill players to win games they don’t dominate.
Tampa is also in terrific form. The Lightning are 17-8 in their last 25 games and rank second in the NHL with a 56.2% expected goals rate and first with a 60.2% high-danger scoring chance rate. The Bolts are a dangerous team no matter how much of the puck they have on a given night, but when they’re rolling like this it’s very hard to stop.
Betting on the NHL?
There is a chance that Andrei Vasilevskiy doesn’t start in goal for the Lightning after he missed Wednesday’s game in Minnesota with an illness. Still, he was healthy enough to serve as the backup for Brian Elliott in that contest, so it’s likely Vasilevskiy is back in the cage for Tampa in Winnipeg.
The Jets have earned the respect they’re getting from the betting market in this contest, but that sentiment is providing some value on a red-hot Lightning team that has shown no signs of slowing down.
Lightning vs. Jets pick
Lightning -118 (FanDuel)
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