Don’t look now, but the New York Rangers could pass the New Jersey Devils with a win in regulation in Newark on Saturday afternoon.
That would have been hard to believe when these two met for a Rangers 4-3 overtime win on Dec. 12, but the two Metro Division rivals have gone in opposite directions since then, and all of a sudden, things are quite bunched at the top of the standings.
Will the Rangers continue their roll on Saturday? Or is now the time to sell high on New York?
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Rangers vs. Devils prediction (1 p.m. ET, NHL Network)
At the beginning of December, there was a lot of noise around these two teams for different reasons. The Rangers just lost to the Chicago Blackhawks for their fifth defeat in six games, and there were murmurs that the team could move on from head coach Gerard Gallant.
At that same time, the Devils were 21-4-1 and looked like they were about to run away with the Metro Division.
But while the Rangers followed up that loss to Chicago with an 11-2-1 stretch, the Devils turned in a 3-8-2 run to tumble toward the chasing pack.
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But under the surface things look different.
Since Dec. 5, the Rangers have the second-best points percentage in the NHL and their +0.87 goal differential per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is the sixth-best mark in the circuit. But it does appear to be a bit of smoke and mirrors.
While the Rangers are never going to need to dominate play because of their goaltender and elite playmaking talent, they are playing with fire a bit. Over their last 14 contests, the Blueshirts have skated to a 44.7% expected goals rate and 43.6% high-danger scoring chance rate. That is good enough for 26th and 27th in the NHL, respectively, over that span.
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Even more concerning is that the Blueshirts are just not generating scoring chances at 5-on-5. In fact, only Chicago is creating fewer expected goals and high-danger scoring chances at even strength in that time period. The results are coming, but at some point getting outplayed at 5-on-5 will catch up with a team.
On the other hand, the Devils are going through a bit of the opposite. While New Jersey isn’t getting wins, it is still driving play at a terrific clip at 5-on-5. The Devils are just 4-8-2 in their last 14 contests, but they rank eighth in expected goals rate and seventh in high-danger scoring chance percentage in that span.
It does need to be noted that the Rangers will have a significant goaltending advantage in this contest and that a big part of New Jersey’s stumble has been due to leaky netminding. But everything at 5-on-5 is pointing in the direction of the Devils on Saturday and the hope is that they control play enough that they can overcome New York’s edge in goal.
This looks like a great buy-low, sell-high spot on the Devils.
Rangers vs. Devils pick
Devils moneyline, (-118, BetRivers)
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