The New York Islanders are weathering the storm right now. Down their no. 1 defenseman and four forwards, the Isles are doing everything they can to hang in the mix in the relentless Metropolitan Division.
The Isles have won four of their last five games, but they can’t afford any drop in form as they’ve got a brutal schedule ahead of them in January.
Will the Islanders pull the minor upset and hand Edmonton its sixth straight loss on home ice on Thursday night? The game starts at 9 pm and will be broadcast on ESPN+.
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Islanders vs. Oilers prediction
Through the first part of the season, it was pretty clear that the Isles were adjusting to life under new head coach Lane Lambert. The Islanders wanted to play a more front-foot style of hockey than they did under Barry Trotz, and the early returns were filled with highs and lows. The Isles were winning more than they were losing, and they were scoring at an impressive clip, but their statistical portfolio was pretty ugly.
Despite boasting a +9 goal differential at 5-on-5 through their first 24 games, the Islanders ranked 27th in the NHL in expected goal rate and 28th in high-danger scoring chance percentage. The Isles were relying heavily on Ilya Sorokin in goal and were, for the most part, getting away with it.
But since the beginning of December, things have started to trend up for the Isles. The Islanders are only 7-6-2 in that span, but they rank fifth in expected goals rate and high-danger scoring chance percentage despite the fact that they’ve been dealing with a slew of injuries.
The biggest improvement has come in the defensive end, where the Islanders are holding teams to just 2.2 expected goals (third overall) and 10.4 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (eighth overall) at 5-on-5 in their last 15 contests. .
The Isles will need to maintain that defensive form against Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday night.
While you never know what you’re going to get from the Oil on a night to night basis, you can be pretty sure of what McDavid will bring to the table every time he steps onto the ice. McDavid is on pace for over 150 points, yet somehow his team is currently on the outside of the playoff picture in the Western Conference. It’s hard to believe.
Betting on the NHL?
The Islanders have some lineup decisions ahead of this game. Kyle Palmieri and Cal Clutterbuck are close to returning, and goaltender Semyon Varlamov is back in the picture after being injured before the holiday break. It’s likely that Varlamov will start ahead of Ilya Sorokin, which isn’t ideal considering Sorokin’s form. Still, Varlamov should give the Islanders a decent edge over Jack Campbell or Stuart Skinner.
The Oilers’ lack of depth, defensive flaws, and inconsistent goaltending make them hard to back as a favorite. On the other hand, the Isles are deep, improving defensively, and have one of the best goaltending tandems in the NHL.
The Isles are worth a shot as an underdog on Thursday night.
Islanders vs. Oilers pick
Islanders +135 (BetMGM)
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