Welcome to January. Time to start talking about March.
March 3, and the days and weeks leading up to it, could become a franchise-defining stretch for the Blackhawks. They could trade Patrick Kane, the most electrifying player in franchise history and possibly the greatest American-born player in the history of hockey. They could trade Jonathan Toews, the embodiment of the Blackhawks’ golden age, the face, voice and captain of the franchise. And in return, they could land draft capital that could potentially lead to the next Kane, the next Toews.
Or absolutely nothing could happen, which could be just as momentary.
But Kane and Toews aren’t the only Blackhawks who could be had before the March 3 trade deadline. General manager Kyle Davidson is still in teardown mode so he can eventually switch to build-back-up mode. And after he dealt away Alex DeBrincat and Kirby Dach last summer, it’s clear there are no untouchables.
This trade board, which is ranked on the amount of buzz we’re hearing about the various players, will be updated with news, notes and thoughts throughout the next two months, so bookmark it and keep checking back. Here’s how things stand right now, starting with the top prize:
1. Patrick Kane, $10.5 million cap hit
Kane may not be having a Kane-like statistical season, but there are plenty around the league who believe he’s still capable of playing at an elite level, especially if he’s playing with other elite players.
The Blackhawks have played their last home game of 2022. There are 13 more games at the United Center before the trade deadline. Time may be running out to see Patrick Kane play like he did last night in Chicago. https://t.co/gyG5i187Ac
— Scott Powers (@ByScottPowers) December 24, 2022
What the Blackhawks probably want: First-round draft pick and a decent prospect.
What they can likely get: Kane probably isn’t going to waive his no-movement trade clause for just anyone, so the team or teams he’s interested in will have some leverage. Still, it is expected that someone will pay the price of a first-round pick and a prospect for Kane. If a team doesn’t have its first-round pick, the Blackhawks are going to be looking for an elite prospect. The Blackhawks are expected to retain half of Kane’s cap hit.
Trade likelihood: The Blackhawks are preparing as if Kane and Toews won’t ask to be traded. But in the case of Kane, there have been more signs of him possibly wanting out as of late. Time will tell, but it’d be surprising if Kane was still with the Blackhawks at the trade deadline. Davidson and Pat Brisson, Kane and Toews’ agent, are expected to talk in January.
2. Jonathan Toews, $10.5 million
Toews has had a surprising bounce-back season. He’s on pace for 20 goals and 50 points. Considering he’s still dominant in faceoffs, he could be an attractive veteran center at the trade deadline, sort of like Antoine Vermette was for the Blackhawks during the 2015 Stanley Cup run.
What the Blackhawks probably want: First-round draft pick
What they can likely get: There are a lot of variables that could go into Toews being traded. For one, Toews has to want that, and we’ll get into that shortly. Secondly, it’s less likely a team will want to take on half of Toews’ cap hit. A third party may have to join the trade or the Blackhawks would have to take back a player to make the trade work. The trade market could also determine the desire for Toews.
Trade likelihood: Of Kane and Toews, the Blackhawks are more skeptical that Toews will ask for a trade. A major piece of his identity is as the Blackhawks team captain. He’s accustomed to that role and enjoys it. If he goes elsewhere, he’s not that guy any longer, at least at the trade deadline. If he chooses to sign with a different team next season, maybe he finds a fit where he can assume that role again. As of now, it’s difficult to envision Toews asking for Davidson to seek a trade. Neither Kane nor Toews is expected to re-sign with the Blackhawks, whether or not they’re traded this season.
3. Max Domi, $3 million
Domi was signed specifically to be flipped at the trade deadline. The thought process was he could take advantage of seeing a lot of ice time, playing on the top power-play unit and playing alongside Kane. If Domi performed well enough, somebody could see his upside, especially at $3 million on an expiring contract.
What the Blackhawks probably want: First-round draft pick
What they can likely get: The Blackhawks’ initial asking price may be a first-round draft pick for the first three people on this list, but it’s only likely to be met for Kane. Domi might be able to bring back a second-round pick depending on the rest of the market. He has been one of the Blackhawks’ best players this season.
Trade likelihood: The Blackhawks are expected to find a suitor for Domi at the deadline. The question will just be the return. Will it be a second- or third-round pick he fetches?
The Blackhawks signed Athanasiou for the same reason as Domi. He was another player Davidson thought could benefit from a bigger and better opportunity and then be traded. Athanasiou has had his moments, but he hasn’t been as consistent as Domi. Still, his game-breaking speed makes him a potentially attractive piece for a contender looking for some scoring depth.
What the Blackhawks probably want: Second-round draft pick
What they can likely get: Athanasiou is more likely to bring back a middle-round draft pick considering he has just seven goals through 32 games. Maybe he gets a fourth-round pick? If a team is searching for an offensive winger to play a bottom-six role, he would be a fit.
Trade likelihood: There’s a chance the Blackhawks don’t get much interest in him at the deadline.
Statistically speaking, Johnson is having a terrible season, with some of the worst underlying numbers in the league. But veteran defensemen are always a valuable commodity at the deadline. And Johnson’s experience winning a Stanley Cup with the Avalanche last season, combined with his reputation as a great teammate and positive force in the locker room, could convince a team to take a flier on him.
What the Blackhawks probably want: A mid-round draft pick.
What they can likely get: A late-round pick, or even just “future considerations.”
Trade likelihood: There’s a pretty good chance Johnson gets dealt, even if it’s just as a favor to him. The Blackhawks can’t realistically expect anyone to pony up a fourth- or fifth-rounder for him, but he’s obviously not a long-term option for the team at 36 years old, and trading him will allow the Blackhawks to get a better look. at some of their younger defensemen down the stretch.
For the free-falling Blackhawks, veteran Jack Johnson’s attitude matters every bit as much as his aptitude.
My story from Raleigh: https://t.co/mvRxpFlQzy
— Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) December 28, 2022
Khaira has been one of the Blackhawks’ most consistent forwards, physically and defensively sound. On a team loaded with bottom-six players, he’s one of the few that could realistically and capably fill that role on a higher-end team.
What the Blackhawks probably want: A mid-round pick.
What they can likely get: The Blackhawks got a fifth-round pick for Ryan Carpenter last year. That could be a similar value for Khaira.
Trade likelihood: Khaira is unlikely to be traded, but there are teams sometimes looking for players like him at the deadline.
Jones’ contract isn’t quite the albatross it might appear to be. The Blackhawks will need it just to get to the salary floor in the next season or two, and by the time they’re in position to contend again, the cap will have gone up significantly, meaning $9.5 million for a No. 2 or No. 3 defenseman (depending on Kevin Korchinski and others’ development) will be merely an overpay, not a disaster. That said, Jones was a Stan Bowman addition, not a Kyle Davidson addition, and this is a full teardown, so the Blackhawks would certainly listen to any offers.
What the Blackhawks probably want: To not have to retain any salary for the next seven seasons.
What they can likely get: Not as much as you’d think, unless they do retain salary.
Trade likelihood: Virtually nil. There have been no discussions with any team regarding Jones, and the Blackhawks aren’t likely to accept having $4.75 million of dead money on their balance sheet for the next seven years.
Could be on the board
Sam Lafferty, $1.15 million: The Blackhawks are open to listening to offers on nearly everyone on their roster. Of the players signed beyond this season, Lafferty is one who could make sense for someone. He has a low cap-hit number and has proven he can be an effective bottom-six and penalty-killing forward.
Ian Mitchell, $925,000: Mitchell has been in and out of the lineup since being recalled from Rockford on Dec. 1. The Blackhawks seem ready to move on from the former second-round pick as he approaches his 24th birthday. As a restricted free agent who won’t be due much of a raise (if any) off his entry-level contract, he could be worth a mid- to late-round pick for a non-contender.
Taylor Raddysh, $758,333: Raddysh is another player who could draw some interest based on his play and low cap hit. It’s not exactly clear whether he’s part of the Blackhawks’ future.
(Photo: Matt Marton / USA Today)
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